The Weather Outlook

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The Beast from the East
09 March 2020 17:43:20

 

I listened to their update today. They were v positive about what China, SK, Singapore and Japan have achieved and are hopeful that it can also be contained elsewhere. The key though is for governments to act fast if things go downhill.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Trump is clearly not going to do anything. Perhaps Boris too. If the numbers explode tomorrow, we will see what kind of a man he is


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Sevendust
09 March 2020 17:44:08

A tad gloomy in here

Btw, does China's 70% recovery rate mean that 30% don't?

The Beast from the East
09 March 2020 17:44:53

Breaking: Italy reports 1,797 new cases and 97 new deaths.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Is this good news? I've lost count of the numbers from day to day


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
09 March 2020 17:44:55

Forgein office travel catogaries:

Cat 1 (self isolate if asymptomatic):

Hubei

Iran

Daegu/Cheongdo (SK)

Italy withinin containment measures

Cat 2 (self isolate if symptomatic):

Cambodia

China

Hong Kong

Italy

Japan

Laos

Macau

Malaysia

Myanmar

SK

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

 

 

 

 

I'd add France, Germany, Spain and the US to Cat2 at the absolute least.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
09 March 2020 17:45:56

 

Is this good news? I've lost count of the numbers from day to day

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The good: Still not convincingly exponential

The bad: It's close. Also spain probably is.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gavin D
09 March 2020 17:46:49
New deaths in Italy have fallen by 36 since yesterday whilst new cases have increased by 305

The Beast from the East
09 March 2020 17:46:55

A tad gloomy in here

Btw, does China's 70% recovery rate mean that 30% don't?

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

That's the key figure. It doesn't kill many but will overload the health and social care services, unless of course you choose not to provide ventilators and let them die. Must be happening in Russia and North Korea a lot

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
09 March 2020 17:49:51

New deaths in Italy have fallen by 36 since yesterday whilst new cases have increased by 305

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Deaths should lag cases, not the other way round.

Means we should be skeptical of some of these statistics and that saturation seems to be happening.

 

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
09 March 2020 17:51:12

What reason was there for deleting that post?

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
09 March 2020 17:51:33

A tad gloomy in here

Btw, does China's 70% recovery rate mean that 30% don't?

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

No, it means that a lot of people haven't yet fully recovered.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



doctormog
09 March 2020 17:52:35

A tad gloomy in here

Btw, does China's 70% recovery rate mean that 30% don't?

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

No, I suspect it means these cases have not yet been “resolved”.


xioni2
09 March 2020 17:53:08

 Is this good news? I've lost count of the numbers from day to day

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Probably pointless to update this daily and there will be a lag between cases and deaths, but it's clear that the 'Italian' death rate has increased significantly in recent days. Almost all deaths are in Lombardy.

Chunky Pea
09 March 2020 17:58:46

 

Deaths should lag cases, not the other way round.

Means we should be skeptical of some of these statistics and that saturation seems to be happening.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes, this is very true, but over a longer period of time, correlations will be less influenced by the 'lag effect'. As Brian said earlier, maybe another 10 days of data (which is not to reduce the very real world experience of this to mere points) will give us a better grasp of the stats as at this stage, it is all just random noise. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

JHutch
09 March 2020 18:06:31

St Helier hospital is in the Morden/Sutton/Carshalton area of SW London.

Brian Gaze
09 March 2020 18:11:33
I'd like to see a Corona fund set-up by the government. It would be used to pay for medical treatment, help to families of those who die and to make up the shortfall from lost wages. I'd also appeal to tax exiles to return and do their bit.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

xioni2
09 March 2020 18:13:27

I'd like to see a Corona fund set-up by the government. It would be used to pay for medical treatment, help to families of those who die and to make up the shortfall from lost wages. I'd also appeal to tax exiles to return and do their bit.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've often thought the same. If things turn bad, HMG should use the magic money tree at Threadneedle St. and do a modern version of helicopter money.

 

xioni2
09 March 2020 18:21:29

Covid-19 hysteria hits hard at the EU Council canteen in Brussels. They decided to take steak off the menu rather than having to serve it well done 

Charmhills
09 March 2020 18:27:53

 

That's the key figure. It doesn't kill many but will overload the health and social care services, unless of course you choose not to provide ventilators and let them die. Must be happening in Russia and North Korea a lot

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

 

The Russian are doing a lot better than you think.

Much better than the West thus far.

As for North Korea, who knows.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Bugglesgate
09 March 2020 18:28:48

Covid-19 hysteria hits hard at the EU Council canteen in Brussels. They decided to take steak off the menu rather than having to serve it well done 

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

Quite right too. 

Overcooked steak is a crime to cuisine !


Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Gavin D
09 March 2020 18:30:57

Polar Low
09 March 2020 18:31:13

Very brave posts Darren  I had a little boy died at just age 5 waiting for heart transplant quite a few years ago now I think about him everyday I will never get fully over it I have my loved memories he died on a machine in my arms but as time gone by it probably would have gone against us because I would have worried that he would have been in a wheelchair for the rest of his life and help with his kidneys he did have a number of strokes etc. he could have said to me  when he was a adult what did you do that for dad I would have rather you let me go  I would have done anything at the time and probably still would  I did get the call one night from cosh we were at the Brompton but it called off due to new heart in trauma.

what Im trying to say I understand what your saying very brave 

xioni2
09 March 2020 18:34:59

 Quite right too. 

Overcooked steak is a crime to cuisine !

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Agreed! (even though I have stopped eating meat for more than 2 years now)

Brian Gaze
09 March 2020 18:35:33
Fifth Brit has died
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Roger Parsons
09 March 2020 18:40:32

Probably pointless to update this daily and there will be a lag between cases and deaths, but it's clear that the 'Italian' death rate has increased significantly in recent days. Almost all deaths are in Lombardy.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Is that your working of the data - or do you have a source, Xioni?

[I'd trust you to get it right! ]

Roger


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

xioni2
09 March 2020 18:42:20

 Is that your working of the data - or do you have a source, Xioni?

[I'd trust you to get it right! ]

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I am plotting the data from here

https://www.corriere.it/speciale/salute/2020/mappa-coronavirus-italia/

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