The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Ulric
02 February 2020 14:00:32

I see. But I go back to what I said at the beginning. Is the infection any worse than a normal bad flu? Most people who get it recover without a vaccine.

I still don't understand why this is such a big story.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Suppose a global pandemic ensures with a death rate of 10%.

Clearly this could result in falling asset prices and loss of rent.

Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
Brian Gaze
02 February 2020 14:01:27

 

Don't know.

Would guess all US and European cases at the very least but probably most, if not all, of the others too.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Really?

There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for 2019-nCoV infection. People infected with 2019-nCoV should receive supportive care to help relieve symptoms. For severe cases, treatment should include care to support vital organ functions.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

 

No vaccine or specific treatment for 2019-nCoV infection is available; care is supportive.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
02 February 2020 14:04:13

I’m not sure how antibiotics or antifungal treatments would help with a viral infection (unless it is used to treat a co-infection). As for antivirals, I’m not sure an effective one is available for is new coronavirus.

Basically as Brian says above.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
02 February 2020 14:04:29

 

Really?

There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for 2019-nCoV infection. People infected with 2019-nCoV should receive supportive care to help relieve symptoms. For severe cases, treatment should include care to support vital organ functions.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

 

No vaccine or specific treatment for 2019-nCoV infection is available; care is supportive.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've seen antivirals mentioned in some of the papers I've read on nCov. May only be a thing in some parts of the world.

Read about one case in the US though where they did use HIV anti virals with some sucess.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
02 February 2020 14:05:57
I believe there is some efficacy with existing HIV antiviral treatments but everything is at the trial and error stage currently.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
02 February 2020 14:06:24

I’m not sure how antibiotics or antifungal treatments would help with a viral infection (unless it is used to treat a co-infection). As for antivirals, I’m not sure an effective one is available for is new coronavirus.

Basically as Brian says above.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

A significant minority of nCov deaths were asociated with secondary bacterial and especially fungal infections.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
02 February 2020 14:07:06

 

I've seen antivirals mentioned in some of the papers I've read on nCov. May only be a thing in some parts of the world.

Read about one case in the US though where they did use HIV anti virals with some sucess.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

For a clever bloke you don't half panic and talk some alarmist nonsense. I'm not playing down the risks from this virus because I have zilch medical knowledge as I said the other day. 

PS: Are you medically qualified?

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
02 February 2020 14:08:24

I believe there is some efficacy with existing HIV antiviral treatments but everything is at the trial and error stage currently.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think there are also suggestions that SARS treatments may also have some efficacy too.

I mean on the face of it it's really good news and will allow us to cope with the problem before we have a vacinne.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
02 February 2020 14:10:50

 

For a clever bloke you don't half panic and talk some alarmist nonsense. I'm not playing down the risks from this virus because I have zilch medical knowledge as I said the other day. 

PS: Are you medically qualified?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'm not playing up the risks. You accuse me of being alarmist, yet I think I have been fairly balanced in posting things we should be optimistic about too.

And no I'm not medically qualified but I try to make my posts reflective of the current rapidally growing literature on nCov.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
02 February 2020 14:12:37

 

I'm not playing up the risks. You accuse me of being alarmist, yet I think I have been fairly balanced in posting things we should be optimistic about too.

And no I'm not medically qualified but I try to make my posts reflective of the current rapidally growing literature on nCov.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Suggesting the mortality rate is 10% at this stage to me sounds alarmist at the very least. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

xioni2
02 February 2020 14:28:46

Suggesting the mortality rate is 10% at this stage to me sounds alarmist at the very least. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed and same for categorically saying that the Chinese data is dodgy or keep saying to someone here to cancel his holiday.

Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2020 14:44:26

 

I see. But I go back to what I said at the beginning. Is the infection any worse than a normal bad flu? Most people who get it recover without a vaccine.

I still don't understand why this is such a big story.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

 

The reason it's a massive story is what it could do not what it has done. Imagine if we did nothing it would no doubt eventually kill millions. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
02 February 2020 15:03:58

 

Indeed and same for categorically saying that the Chinese data is dodgy or keep saying to someone here to cancel his holiday.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The chinese data is dodgy. They were even arresting qualified doctors in December who were speaking out about it. Since then things have improved and it isn't as bad as SARS which was a total coverup.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Bugglesgate
02 February 2020 15:17:25

The reason it's a massive story is what it could do not what it has done. Imagine if we did nothing it would no doubt eventually kill millions. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

Quite !

I doesn't have to kill many as a percentage if it becomes endemic   a 1% death rate translates  to  a  maximum potential of 670,000 deaths in the UK alone.

One shudders at the impact on the NHS  of even a fraction of that figure and the level of "crowding out" of people with other unrelated   life threatening illnesses.

 

 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2020 17:34:48

 

 

Quite !

I doesn't have to kill many as a percentage if it becomes endemic   a 1% death rate translates  to  a  maximum potential of 670,000 deaths in the UK alone.

One shudders at the impact on the NHS  of even a fraction of that figure and the level of "crowding out" of people with other unrelated   life threatening illnesses.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Is that assuming everyone gets it, not very likely why should they.
The majority will never be expose to it and others will have a degree of immunity from encountering similar bugs.

Variations on Asian Flu have been a issue since forever, in the past they just arrived eventually and it was just one of those things.
It really isn't that much different except now we have internet trying to make everything seem 10x worse.

North York Moors weather 
Bugglesgate
02 February 2020 17:51:52


Is that assuming everyone gets it, not very likely why should they.
The majority will never be expose to it and others will have a degree of immunity from encountering similar bugs.

Variations on Asian Flu have been a issue since forever, in the past they just arrived eventually and it was just one of those things.
It really isn't that much different except now we have internet trying to make everything seem 10x worse.

Originally Posted by: four 

 

What I was getting at is it's a numbers game - it hasn't got to be particularly   vicious to cause chaos   if it's highly contagious.  I suspect this is why the WHO and others are taking it seriously.  It's a moot point what  numbers  will grid lock the NHS - my guess is its way below 1% of the population rocking up   requiring some kind of treatment in addition   to their standard winter burdens.

 

 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Essan
02 February 2020 18:59:21

What I was getting at is it's a numbers game - it hasn't got to be particularly   vicious to cause chaos   if it's highly contagious.  I suspect this is why the WHO and others are taking it seriously.  It's a moot point what  numbers  will grid lock the NHS - my guess is its way below 1% of the population rocking up   requiring some kind of treatment in addition   to their standard winter burdens.

 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 



The problem for the NHS (and the equivalent elsewhere) is hundreds of people turning up at hospitals because they have a cold, 'flu, smoker's cough or a hangover and overwhelming the system.   Although , to be fair, that happens anyway.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Ulric
02 February 2020 19:22:03

H5N1 found in poultry houses in Hunan Province now. This just gets better and better.

Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
Quantum
02 February 2020 19:57:02

H5N1 found in poultry houses in Hunan Province now. This just gets better and better.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

In kind of a wierd way it is.

Bird flu is less contageous, and with China basically going into lock down this may well be enough to stop a 2nd pandemic.

What I'm saying is, if there had to be a time when H5N1 comes back, better for it to happen when everyone is on red alert.

 

My gut instinct is that this one will be contained.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Northern Sky
02 February 2020 20:15:09

"H5N1

 killed a wild swan

 it was a kind of omen

 of everything to come"

Quantum
02 February 2020 20:15:23

First death outside of china. Phillipines.

He was 44.

Sh*t

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
02 February 2020 20:36:37

First death outside of china. Phillipines.

He was 44.

Sh*t

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes a Chinese man travelling from Wuhan (where he contracted the virus) died in the Philippines.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Brian Gaze
02 February 2020 21:54:17

First death outside of china. Phillipines.

He was 44.

Sh*t

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I commented on this earlier today and you acknowledged it. I really don't know what game you are playing here TBH.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Northern Sky
02 February 2020 22:02:33

First death outside of china. Phillipines.

He was 44.

Sh*t

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

With underlying health problems. As has been widely reported.

Quantum
02 February 2020 22:15:02

 

I commented on this earlier today and you acknowledged it. I really don't know what game you are playing here TBH.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Read the comment but skipped over the 1 death bit. Only found out myself when I made that post.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Remove ads from site