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Tally non of those charts show an SSW. They show some warming at 10hPa but that’s not an SSW. The zonal wind vectors do look like slowing in the next few weeks but whether it’s enough to induce a technical SSW is another matter. http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Indeed.
I was thinking of coining the term 'GISW' as in 'Gentle and Inconsequential Stratospheric Warming'
Yes thanks DEW, my first read in the morning before flicking through the model output. In the meantime this winter rumbles on unceremoniously continuing to deliver unremitting shite to most of the UK and Europe. It feels like this Autumnal dirge will never end
Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER
Although for most in the country, it is far more acceptable than the cold a lot of guys on here seem to hanker after. For me, this is perfect British winter weather in our maritime climate.
Sadly I don't think it will hold: the pattern suggests the northern arm of the jet is going to flatten things again.
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
Yes a slow down!
Finally!!
The control shows a SSW? if this came off after 300z?
Operational shows a warming...
BUT WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Tally the PV is being tickled on the tummy and wriggling around a bit. Some deflection, not major disruption.
EDIT: Oh, why bother. Welcome to the ignore list.
Originally Posted by: Retron
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
some rather interesting looking members tanking later on:
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
I'd bet that the tankers are Just white noise which will get filtered out byt144 at the latest. Fantasy Island lives on.
Meanwhile, some rather interesting looking members tanking later on:
I assume this is just an age thing 😉
I refer you to the Forum Arms' Newspaper Headlines thread.
Anyway ECM shows the issue with a strong PV and associated Jet - a potentially 1050+ HP over the UK gets ridden over the top and flattened, albeit with retrogression.
Could be a Top 5 UK pressure reading into next week. 1053.6 is UK record I believe?
Originally Posted by: Arcus
I hope so. I really like MLB in winter if its centred over the UK. Proper cold winter highs are great. Unfortunately this HP looks to drag in Atlantic airs post Tuesday, which is a pity.
1054.7mb in my garden back in 1902. That was a good day, although I remember Richard complaining about nondescript vile anticyclonic muck. Anyway that was back in 1902 when we got real weather.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
You are doing well both of you. What's the secret?
Nick
Originally Posted by: NMA
I believe we only get one year of weather every decade or so which may account for it.
Oh you are a card Mr. D.
ENS more interesting few wintry options about awaiting a decent pub run which have been missing so far
Originally Posted by: ballamar
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=201&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Looks like you've got your wish. Stunning pub run incoming with brutal northerly.
GFS 18z = best run of the winter by miles
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Yes, shows whats possible iF the high wobbles into the west. Probably a bit of an outlier...
Hang on in there, mid-Atlantic "omega" type high.
Originally Posted by: idj20
Transient ridge there Ian! Still, a fun little FI northerly that. Gone on the 0z!
...and back to square one in deepest Lala land.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
After that Northerly will be keeping an eye on the NE developments