I think it's been long-established that cold winters correlate with sunspot minima, which would imply more blocked patterns. But like SSWs, it's not a straightforward linkage because of the other factors involved.

Interesting point, Michael.

From what I recall of it, 2007/08 was a similar winter in nature to this one, i.e mostly mild and no notable cold spells. The following three winters were generally much better for cold fans though.

The question to ask is what makes person x, y or z an expert? Is it because they use big words (despite not necessarily understanding them) or do they genuinely have years of experience and specialist knowledge? If so, is there empirical evidence to substantiate their claims? IMO we need to be careful not to end up in the land of alchemy.   

It stands for nothing Dave. 

Tally, you’re far more knowledgeable than me when it comes to reading the charts but even I know that the UK weather is very delicately balanced because we’re a small island.

Clearly true this year

Tis just interesting that whatever favourable long range signals there's been, the shorter term has pretty much just said 'no' to anything decent from a deep cold POV.

Looking at the GFS ens there's something of a chillier blip now appearing circa 18-22nd Feb and a fun 25c scatter in 850's in deep FI. Based on recent experience you'd favour the milder outcome but still, just a small chance of something a little more entertaining if you're a coldie.

I guess the only consolation with mild winning now rather than a few weeks ago is it can feel genuinely pleasant in any sunny spells, which isn't a bad outcome if the less likely colder solutions don't verify

 There are a massive variety of options on the table for the latter third of the month.  Its looking potentially chilly by night and pleasant by day in the near term, and I think we will see a PM incursion around 19th, possibly stormy.  Check out the CMA for 19th:

Thats what I like about your forecast Brian, no unnecessary big/buzzwords and laid out in laymen’s terms. Too many pseudo experts on various forums preaching to the flock, and those new to this look up at them in awe until it goes t*ts up and they then disappear until the next merry dance comes along.

It looks like Western Europe is going to see an early taste of spring this week

If we can get some decent sunshine then I'm going for 16c somewhere. 

Can anyone else feel their ears popping? OK I may have a wax problem

Is there a term for Rapid Anticyclogenesis? An “anti bomb”? Yes I know the High is not forming in situ before anyone points it out but that pressure increase for London, and indeed more generally, is very impressive. Perhaps winter 2018/2019 is the winter of the anticyclone?

Which then raises more questions. So we know SSW doesn't guarantee HLB neither does the fact we are entering Solar Minimum but if it's not that then it must be the fact that we have transitioned into a westerly QBO? Maybe that's the factor then?

 Sorry, I didn't quite catch that.

But don't we have this in your world of alchemy every autumn and winter, with a succession of long-range forecasts and adherence to the latest buzz word/expression?

Is there an emoticon for a large pinch of salt? It would surely come in useful.

Since this winter is in fact pre-solar minimum, the stats are consistent with the outcome, a nothing much of anything winter. Just 3 winters were cold in the last 60 years, at this point in the cycle. Next year should statistically be better. 

However we were unlucky with the SSW. the PV split was not favourable to us unlike the direct hit with the beast. 

Looking at this winter, Brian was right to say it was a virtual winter...

now there's a business idea Brian. Take purtabations 7 - what would my garden look like at 384 hours on this run, virtual head set on - and Wow, what a snow storm, the shed is buried under a 10' drift!! I'd buy that piece of kit!!

Lets hope next year we don't need a virtual winter device, but have the real thing...

Back to model land, a very noticeable rise in pressure over the near continent will result in almost spring like conditions this week with, I would guess, 15c being easily achievable given clear skies and some sunshine

Please don't mention the football result today!! LOL

Spot on SC. 

Difference between an 'expert' and an 'psuedo-experts' is that experts can give as much info, in less ostentatious language, in one or two sentences than the pseudos do in multiple paragraphed, techno-babbled filled posts. 

Thanks for link - so if this is the case and if we go to to a La Nina albeit weak one as well as an easterly QBO by this Autumn 2019 then combine this with solar minimum then winter 2019/2020 will be the one more conductive to producing HLB. - Similar to like what we had during last solar minimum winters like 08/09 and 09/10. etc.,  

JFF - Love the N. Hemisphere view down:

Some very warm air not just for Europe but the USA @ T+99:

18Z Ensembles for London:

Remarkably above average in terms of upper temps @850hpa for February, with the coldest only a few degrees below the ensemble mean late in FI! This has to qualify for a WIO thread Brian?

I found these stats interesting:

The NAO Index for January came in at +0.59 (NOAA CPC)

The NAO has been:

Negative in 2 of the last 16 months

Negative in 3 of the last 32 Dec-Mar winter months

Negative in 1 of the last 24 Dec-Feb winter months

Positive the last 8 Decembers

Positive the last 8 Januarys

https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1094584366695632896?s=21