At least we can rely on you to make the same post over and over and over and.... Zzzzzz...

yes, I quite like the timeanddate site and almost I mostly use it for its astronomical content (which would be a subject for a different forum anyway), it can easy to underestimate its value for weather related content as well. In addition to that, I have also noticed that the data which it reports for Edinburgh is for Edinburgh Airport which is one of my three local stations and this means that it will also clearly show up that minimum of -9°C which was recorded there during the early hours of this morning.

I have also noticed that it uses its own long-term average for the period between 1985-2015 to compare that data against which is the same length of time as the others, but not one of the standard periods for these averages which the Met Office have ever used. I could of course use that to compile the statistics for Edinburgh Airport in the same manner in which I do for Edinburgh Gogarbank or the botanic gardens in Edinburgh but that wouldn't be consistent with the 1981-2010 average which I use for those other stations and that is why I generally don't go down that road.

That's fair enough fairweather and FWIW I don't disagree. If I gave the impression that I thought you personally were writing off the remainder of winter then I apologise. I have to say that in my experience, it would take a lot for Shropshire to be talking up cold charts! I get the point you are making though.

While you personally may not have been writing off the rest of this winter, it has been perfectly clear to me anyway that one or two other members (no names, they know who they are) have been posting comments which IMO have been pretty much tatamount to doing just that. The issue as I see it is that some people look at a number of model runs which only go up to a certain point and then assume that what is indicated for x number of days or weeks ahead is set in stone. As Michael said last night, it has seemed for much of the time lately that developments at four days ahead, let alone four weeks, have been subject to doubt. When there is any amount of doubt at only a few days ahead, then nobody here will need me to tell them that there is no way that any of us can be anywhere even approaching sure about what happens 1-2 weeks or further ahead. That is the whole basis of my argument here.

I think this place will go quiet for another 2 weeks or so

The differences between the GFS 00z op and the 06z op run within the 10-day period illustrate to me pretty well why developments as we go further into February are still some way off being settled one way or the other. The GFS 00z further into FI looked to be as being broadly along the same lines as what was indicated by yesterday's ECM 00z, whereas the 06z has reverted back to something much more zonal looking.

I can only repeat what I have said before: Until such times as there is consistent cross-model agreement and solid run-to-run consistency for one outcome of the other, mild or cold, there will continue to be a fair element of uncertainty about developments beyond next week. At the moment we have neither of those, and to be fair that seems to have been the case throughout much of this season.

Okay thanks, I was trying to establish the common ground. You do have to be quite optimistic  to hope for something in the next two weeks though but I agree there were others who were effectively saying it was mild till the end of the month. The chances for then are probably marginally better than they have been for two weeks ahead at any time this winter bar the last two.

What a rubbish crappy run ! come on!!

Op 06z run shows the LP between or always to the SW of Iceland/Greenland and Scotland:

It's the same old borefest going on! = Rubbish! I really hope February has more to offer than 9c by night and 10c by day with cloud and rain!! All I can say is thank goodness for the weather event from the SW yesterday!

90hrs:

150 hrs

201 hrs

252 hrs:

360 hrs - still no change!

Stop looking at the NWP output, it is up and down like a pair of underpants in any case - worst winter ever in my view for NWP reliability beyond t+72, probably because they are stuffed by the SSW which took place, conflicting signals from tropical forcings and the solar minimum. The NWP are still engineered for the kind of hemispheric profiles which were standard in the 1990s (in my view) and they will need significant redevelopment to cope with the chaos caused by AGW, grand solar minimums and frequent SSWs.

Anyhow, according to the newspapers, we are "stuck in Artic weather", so I am very happy with the newspaper commentary, provided I don't look out of the window or check the ambient temperatures.

Doesn't matter to me now. Had more snow today than I've seen in many years, including last year's beast. Roll on spring now.

No newspaper report on cold weather has ever failed to include the phrase "and there's worse to come", even though the forecasts show it reaching double figures in the south by Tuesday. 

I like to think that by "worse to come", they mean their journalism

Meanwhile areas of UK prone to mild and dry weather suffer a second year of deep snowfall.

I just cant understand it.

Lets hope that easterly reappears on the 12z

Given what you posted first, why hope for an easterly?  (We had two last year bringing significant  snow to NE , central, E SW, S areas) Surely a very cold NW with possible polar lows would be better for you? 

I would have thought a potent N-NWly would be more promising to you like late Dec 2000 than another beast from the east... from which the lowlands of the NW tends to miss out.

Struggle to see a way back to cold from this

Could have cut my eyes just by looking at the straight lines . . .



That would easily cause temperatures to hover around the low teens day and night for my neck of the woods should it bear fruit.

given consistency might show a Greenland high on next run but does look as though we might be looking at a mild period