The Weather Outlook

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ballamar
31 January 2019 16:16:58
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

If only that could slide under the block orientation looks close, but I think mild will win out

marco 79
31 January 2019 16:40:05

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png

If only that could slide under the block orientation looks close, but I think mild will win out

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

problem is we now have heights into europe. That scuppers energy sliding se...

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Rob K
31 January 2019 16:50:39
Full-on flat rubbish in the GFS now with high pressure to the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

warrenb
31 January 2019 16:55:23
To be honest the 12z is so different to the 6z it is laughable.
Tonbridge 45m 
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
31 January 2019 17:33:00

.

OK then.

At next week by about T144 circa Wednesday the 6th of February, the UK shall experience active Low Pressure- cold Zonal Westerlies are being predicted by the GFS OP, PARA, ICON and the UKMO.  Not exactly clear what to say about the ICON though.

Eastern Canada and Greenland Blocking High looks quite good for us as well.

And the area of warmth in SW of NW Atlantic could be held at bay.

What happens further down the line?  I will be watching this situation....

Getting welcome rain is good for the UK, and good if we get Temperatures at average for early Feb.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Rob K
31 January 2019 17:38:54

A couple more rogue cold runs on the 12Z GEFS. P1 gives a classic Scandi high.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arbroath 1320
31 January 2019 17:52:07
Well, based on the 12z data out so far, it's beginning to look we may be about to enter a mild and zonal period of weather from next week. Can the ECM 12z save the day and stick with this morning's FI Scandi High? Looking a bit unlikely, but a last straw to clutch maybe?
Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
Brian Gaze
31 January 2019 18:04:43

ECM 12z out to 48 at the time of posting. The most important model run of the winter so far?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

JACKO4EVER
31 January 2019 18:33:45
Well the pendulum is swinging towards a milder outcome now as we move into February, very disappointing after all the bullish MetO updates of the past weeks.
Rob K
31 January 2019 18:36:01
Looks like the ECM isn't going to pull another rabbit out of the hat - no Scandi high this time.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arbroath 1320
31 January 2019 18:37:34

ECM 12z out to 48 at the time of posting. The most important model run of the winter so far?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The ECM 12z is out to 168 now and the game's a bogey it seems. The Atlantic rushes in.

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
tallyho_83
31 January 2019 19:49:21
Well that Scandi High on the 06z ECM has failed - bloody heck how many times has an easterly failed this winter!?
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

White Meadows
31 January 2019 20:26:35

Well the pendulum is swinging towards a milder outcome now as we move into February, very disappointing after all the bullish MetO updates of the past weeks.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Yes it’s pretty much game set and match to take a walk on the mild side for February. Pretty poor show really from Exeter particularly when you consider the signs were becoming clear much sooner than when the idea was finally (though inevitably) swept under the carpet. 

David M Porter
31 January 2019 21:13:37

I only hope that those of you writing all of February off at the moment don't come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.

IMO, the time for passing judgment on February's weather won't be until at least another three weeks from now, maybe more.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
31 January 2019 21:16:20

I only hope that those of you writing all of February off at the moment don't come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.

IMO, the time for passing judgment on February's weather won't be until at least another three weeks from now, maybe more.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

If February delivers some winter weather then I won't regret it. I'll be perfectly happy to be proved wrong!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

JACKO4EVER
31 January 2019 21:26:02

I only hope that those of you writing all of February off at the moment don't come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.

IMO, the time for passing judgment on February's weather won't be until at least another three weeks from now, maybe more.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I only hope those of you ramping up all of February at the moment don’t come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.............

and find there has been bugger all action apart from in FI virtual reality to talk about 

😉

noodle doodle
31 January 2019 21:41:45
It doesn't matter what the models say happens in february, it could be 3 feet of snow, but you'll all be in here moaning about what the computerised dice say might happen 2 weeks later :-D

It's the coldest it's been in seven years and it's snowing across england, enjoy the now!

ballamar
31 January 2019 21:49:52
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_60_1.png 

You can see why there was a chance of east or north east winds, it was close but little bits of energy in jet closed the chance

David M Porter
31 January 2019 21:58:24

 

I only hope those of you ramping up all of February at the moment don’t come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.............

and find there has been bugger all action apart from in FI virtual reality to talk about 

😉

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I certainly haven't been "ramping up" February, merely keeping an open mind as to what could happen beyond the coming week.

There has been enough flip-flopping in the output of late to suggest, to me anyway, than nothing can be ruled out for further into the new month, be it a mostly mild outcome or the opposite. Let's not forget either that when the GFS and ECM op runs went through something of a wobbily spell around the middle of last February and seemed at one point to want to bring the atlantic back in at the end of the month instead of the "Beast", we had a few members here saying "That's it, it's game over for cold". We all know what actually happened at the months' end.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

The Beast from the East
31 January 2019 22:06:16
Tonight’s shambles is a fitting end to another hugely disappointing winter. There is now just too much energy in the jet which prevents blocking where we need it.
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Stolen Snowman
31 January 2019 22:12:39

It doesn't matter what the models say happens in february, it could be 3 feet of snow, but you'll all be in here moaning about what the computerised dice say might happen 2 weeks later :-D

It's the coldest it's been in seven years and it's snowing across england, enjoy the now!

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

Indeed - computerised dice that are consistent in being inherently unreliable from the looks of it!

Although drawn in again this year, I can only conclude model watching is a mug’s game, unless you’re interested in logging their performance that is...

Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.

Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent

Crepuscular Ray
31 January 2019 22:29:20
Stav on the bbc longer outlook tonight lets us glimpse a Scandi High of sorts at the end of his synoptic run. Although a little less cold next week, not mild.

He finished by saying, cold air never too far away, keep tuned.

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

fairweather
31 January 2019 22:35:52


It's the coldest it's been in seven years and it's snowing across england, enjoy the now!

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

Is it? It certainly isn't the coldest for most of England in seven years and only a few places have anything other than a dusting of snow.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
31 January 2019 22:40:25

I only hope that those of you writing all of February off at the moment don't come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.

IMO, the time for passing judgment on February's weather won't be until at least another three weeks from now, maybe more.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

There is good cross model support and strong clusters up until the 12th February for average temperatures and no decent cold. I agree there is no reason why the last two weeks still can't produce something and maybe the first week of March as per last year but you have to admit the odds are heavily against it. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
31 January 2019 23:00:02

 

I only hope those of you ramping up all of February at the moment don’t come to regret doing so when we get to the latter part of the month.............

and find there has been bugger all action apart from in FI virtual reality to talk about 

😉

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I think David is a top guy, but is far too hopeful here. The writing is well and truly on the wall. February will not deliver. It's been a truly dreadful winter. Tonight's brief snowfall doesn't cut the mustard. This was definitely the winter that got away.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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