Agreed. It’s been a hopecast bonanza thus far. 🤡January is looking distinctly average to me, and I’m thinking any cold that reaches our shores will be back loaded. After the first six weeks of winter have elapsed it certainly will not be classified as a ‘front loaded’ winter. 😉

The best we have seen in the charts recently is a glancing blow. Im yet to see a Eureka Op chart this winter. Very odd.

Impressive? as in not good for cold? it's like there is /are zero northerly let alone north easterly or easterly!! Looks like the night mare has re occurred again and the UK get's kept in the warmer sectors.

just the op run wait for ENS

Yes its incredible but not unexpected given this part of the world.  The final frame of the 0600Z operational does show the potential for quite a battle between the Atlantic trying to push across and deep cold air across central/eastern Europe. In the battleground - wherever it sets up - there is potential for a lot of snow - but it could be anywhere from the West Midlands to Denmark. 

Taken at face value the 0600 shows a straightforward seasonal cooling rather than anything more notable - but we'll soon see if it was one of the less cold members of the pack. Certainly the potential for cold remains.

Like a drunk trying to walk home after a particularly heavy night, it's one step forward, one step back at present from the NWP.

I do get the feeling that the model output might suddenly flip to a colder solution once whatever is happening in the upper atmosphere becomes clearer. Or it might not - but I wouldn't necessarily be disheartened by the unimpressive ensembles. We know that the entire suite can flip quite easily in the space of one run.

150 hours  - mild westerly:

201 hours: - Cold air to our east and we left in westerly:

276 hours: - Azores high strengthens: So we get mild south westerly winds:

384: -The same old!

 The amount of mumbo jumbo on weather forums has increased exponentially over the years. However, the basics sometimes get overlooked and I remember Paul Bartlett making a very similar point to yours about 15 years ago. Some people will say it is an obvious observation, however I think it's a very valuable one.

Yes but the other issue is people using operational runs more than 5 to 7 days ahead instead of ensembles I think that has stayed the same or maybe improved a bit I do see more reference to ensemble suits on weather forums now

aren't individual ensembles in low res and not well supported and the main run is the OP run which so far has been the worse for model watching in any winter i CAN REMEMBER in terms of bringing anything cold or showing anything snowy?

Talking of which.....the 06z ens better than 00z, ecm ens an improvement too, all starting to come together nicely 

The point is that the operational run, at whatever resolution, is just one run, is based on an incomplete 'picture' of the atmosphere at T+0, and will contain errors that will grow exponentially the further ahead you look.  

Keep in mind the verification statistics: once you get 7 days out you're below 50% accuracy, so the operational runs should never been looked at in isolation.  The ECM ensemble suite is the best as it has 50 variants.  But even ensembles only provide a guide because they cannot check/test every possible error in the starting position and cannot accurately anticipate every forcing/input into the atmosphere.

Remember, these are sophisticated models of the workings of a complex fluid. They've come a long way but they are just approximations.

I dare say I speak for many when I request that the likes of ‘mountain torque’ , ‘sypnotical potential’ and ‘faux Bartlett’ be consigned to the verboten list!

Don't worry the GFS Para 6z has this nailed.

As they say, just for fun: UK completely snow covered.

Yes big shift towards colder in last 18 hours. latest gefs are much better for cold.

Martin

Para FI is stonking 

Given the distribution of snow, that looks very much like a NW/NNW flow of cold and active air, with a Kent Clipper thrown in for good measure.

These aren't to bad either!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

The way that high pressure just inflates out of nowhere between 240 and 288 hours is something to behold. Let's hope something like that starts to show in the ECM within the next couple of days.

Encouraging if it's maintained and suggests good confidence in the modelled cool down via unsettled flow.

I'd agree that its one step forward today in terms of cold potential albeit I have no interest in mean 850hPAs at or around -5 IMBY if they are not backed up by an easterly!  Just waiting for the two steps back tonight!!