The disagreement between ECM and GFS in the 240hr timeframe continues this morning. ECM keeps HP pretty much in charge across the entire UK while GFS wants to slide it SE into the continent.

IMO, whenever these two models disagree with each other in any way with the 10-day timeframe, that to me says that nothing is settled.

There'll be more than that if the ECM is right this morning - it has a high of -1.5C next Saturday in London! If (and it's a big if) the high that sits over us stays clear and doesn't wobble around too much, we will doubtless see some cold surface conditions develop even if it's mild aloft.

Ensembles, as ever, from weather.us.

EDIT: And here's the T2M chart for noon on Saturday:

 It's perhaps unsurprising that the low temperatures are the result of widespread fog under the high:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20190105-1200z.html

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

The search for cold continues...

Crikey. Did you even read the post before yours? You don't have to look very far for cold in today's ECM and you certainly don't need to look at the Netherlands to find it!

Yes, should be pleasant and hopefully sunny and frosty for some. EC mean in line with the op

if only you had posted that link before!! 😂

He means proper cold easterly, not faux surface high cold, but that's about as good as it gets for us these days

Yes this is what I don't understand - why does it have to be diret,ly over the top of the North pOLE?

Have to be honest , that will do for me. You can some very cold nights followed by days where temps really struggle, frost on the ground all day in areas .

Id settle for that 

It doesn’t and no one has said it does.

Anyway thanks Darren. We must remember any cold not from a long fetch easterly is somehow fake news. Cold is cold, this nonsense term “faux cold” just shows that people don’t really understand what the word means.

Quite a benign and then chilly outlook for a few days anyway. I suspect that the weather will become much more “active” in a week to ten days, whether it means cold or not is a different matter!

Totally agree with that 

Indeed, while I'd rather see cold air without an inversion being involved, the surface cold on offer on today's ECM would be a fine alternative.

Much will depend, of course, on where the high ends up. I note that looking at the EPS this morning the operational run was towards the top end of the set regarding pressure on day 7 (and an outlier for Aberdeen!), suggesting the other members generally favour the high slipping away more.

My understanding is that when you have cold at the surface  under clear skies but fairly warm uppers. Which is what may happen next week

expect a fudge- a sort of half way house. Either way it’s poor outlook for anything cold 

Yes but it is real cold not false cold, therefore the term is nonsense. The only real difference is the other weather conditions associated with it. Anticyclonic inversion related cold will not give you blizzards and biting cold winds, but it is very much real.

Taken a days break from watching as apparently I was showing signs of model fatigue but I have come back hoping to see a change and NO nothing even that potential northerly on the 8th and 9th Jan and into 10th as now been gone off charts and we are back to zonal set ups. Tomorrow the GFS Op will go out until 15th Jan and I shall start to get very worried that we/models have STILL not had any response to the SSW yet. There isn't any blocking at all? -So much low pressure over Greenland and Iceland and Svalbard and Northern Siberia!?

What bugs me too is the fact here we are under such a ridge of HP of 1040mb's today and still only managed a min of 5c last night - no frost at all! Nothing wintry to come within the more reliable time frame . EVEN NYE looks dire for cold and frost 10c? Why are we not getting frost with this? - Yes it feels fresher but gosh!! No frost and freezing fog....just dull!

Back to hear and now...

So much LP to the north and HP to south which goes against many if all models including our own met Office Glosea 5 which forecast above average HIGH PRESSURE TO our north and below to our south. We are STILL not seeing this yet in any models! How patient can we be before time is running out?

Control:

GEM:

op GFS

ECM 168

GFS 168 

Bit of a difference just 7 days away 

The chances of our high sticking around and retrogressing without the ‘one week zonal reset’ are still low but higher than a few days ago.

Faux cold is not a nonsense term -it's important to distinguish between synoptics that deliver northerlies/easterlies and cold  under a HP inversion.  

False/faux cold is indeed a nonsense term, scientifically incorrect and factually impossible. Apart from that you’re right. 

I agree WRT your second  point, but why is cold under a HP inversion labelled as faux cold? It's like people  don't understand what 'faux' means! (not you, I might add - just questioning the choice of word) 

Later next week when  many  places are likely to be only a couple of degrees above freezing, people  will still be wearing gloves, hats and scarves 

For the ordinary person yes it's of no consequence but we should remember that for many years prior to 2010, 'faux' cold was the only type of cold we would see, due to the absence of HLB from our winters. So it is important to denote it from a synoptic point of view.

Strength of zonal winds on weatheriscool.com - looks like it's still expected to crash and go into reversal so no change here either:

Either something may crop up at late notice in the models or there will be a major flip in seasonal models?

We are at Solar Minimum ....!? blocking show be more easier to get....so don't know why the models are struggling to show anything cold, wintry or very frosty.

On the plus side - I was just looking at the SSW we had last year when there was a crash in zonal winds around the early part of the 2nd week of Feb around 8th to 11th Feb on above chart showing the red dashes - We didn't get the cold easterly until 24th Feb. But we saw blocking HLB as early as 19th Feb if I remember.