Yes we have the METO outlook which has been solidly going for an unsettled second week of January for some time and the zonal GEFS for the same period, again consistent over time. I think we are heading for a very poor position by around January 8th.

Part of me is wondering whether the HP block that is being shown to take control of our weather next week may prove to be more resilient than GFS thinks.

IIRC it was only a fortnight ago or so when GFS at one point had the atlantic regaining control of the UK's weather a few days earlier than ended up being the case, and even when the atlantic did return during the weekend before last, it wasn't a full blown attack.

Focus solely on what GFS shows at your peril, IMHO.

I have to say , at the moment I don't see anything that's making me sit up and take notice.

Those on the other side seem quite excited by it all, I don't ………..I will be chuffed to be told I'm as blind as a bat .

Yes, the new GFS model agrees with you consistently 

The parallel GFS has a cold spell of sorts but nothing protracted and it’s back to the Euro high setup by the end of the run with westerlies for the UK. I am happy to be proved wrong but this SSW appears to be in exactly the wrong place to deliver anything for the UK other than the dreaded Purple Icelandic Monster and a raging positive NAO. The cold spell shown on the parallel run is despite the SSW rather than because of it — once the warming filters down the vortex moves over and crushes any northern blocking. 

For that reason at the moment I expect the second half of Jan to be more westerly than the first half, barring a second warming event disrupting things further. 

GFS is showing very little consistency- and that's putting it mildly. Even the new improved GFS 2019 evolves completely differently in the 18z versus a mere six hours earlier.

The 12z ECM ensemble suite shows that anything is possible by Day 8, with mild, average and cold options.

IMHO currently absolutely nothing is clear after the next week.

Agreed Gandalf. The only consistency right now is inconsistency from one run to the next. I really hope that I am not straw clutching, but I am not convinced about the GFS raging Atlantic re-asserting so easily. There's a high being shown over Greenland (accepting the terrain exaggerates these), but should our stuck-in-a-rut Euro-slug high connect to this Greenland high, then an Arctic fetch would develop and the winter predictions would manifest finally. 

Happy to eat my hat and a slice of humble pie if it proves to be pie in the sky, but this is I feel a possibility given the tendency for the slug highs to ridge north and topple this year, and the SSW event - whatever effect this has. 

I'll give it another 3 days before I will give up on January's first half.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=&mode=0 

I'd imagine it's a flash in the pan, but you never know!

Its the only crumb of comfort Darren, probably have vanished come 11:30.

Not much to grab onto at the moment IMO

Yes, it’s a bit of fun. I wouldn't expect the further reaches of FI to start showing a distinct colder spell until after the turn of the New Year. It’s 50/50 at best as to whether the SSW affects us with easterlies at the surface.

One unarguable  fact is that a  third of meteorological winter has been burned up and I am yet to have to scrape the windscreen, let alone see a flake of snow here. 

Indeed , I remember looking at Gavs excellent model round up , the seasonal forecast for DJF was for HLB , well the 'D' bit has all but gone and there isn't much on offer for the first half of the 'J'...……..the clock really is ticking . Unless of course March can pull another rabbit out of the hat.

Well, for whatever it's worth, the MetO's own contingency planners forecast is still bullish on a much colder than average January:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

and a colder than average Jan-March period.

However, the forecast was issued a fortnight ago - much earlier than usual, as they normally come out at the end of the month. Whether their (GLOSEA?) signals have changed since then remain to be seen.

Cheers Darren …………...time will tell of course 

Martin

Disappointing output this morning IMO. ECM is dancing with sheep and the London GEFS mean is back above average for the entire run. There are crumbs on offer and it is still possible we will see a more decisive shift but dull nothingness looks very possible.

If its cold and snow you want then its very disappointing . 

Its exhausting chasing the end of the rainbow 

Martin

Very poor outlook if it’s cold your after but on the other hand there should be some useable weather at times

Thereafter in the more reliable, things becoming more mobile with double digit temps back on the menu with some brisk winds at times.

I’m amazed that so many people have not had frosts yet. Here in Hampshire we’ve had a good number of frosts and even the local ponds have been frozen over on at least two occasions. Lowest temp -6C so far. 

If ECM is near the mark then there should be plenty more frosts to come (as suggested in the MO long ranger) albeit nothing more exciting than that. 

We've had 4 air frosts, lowest being -1.5C. I feel like you live in a more frost-prone location than most on here.