6Z isn't really great for cold - it almost gets there but then the second low just piles through giving us a proper soaking. Parallel is again a bit more interesting though!

Are you reverse ferreting from your WIO/five weeks of zonal post the other day?

ECM 00z ensemble for London

The op wasn't a complete outlier on days 9 and 10, sitting within the cold cluster.  That cluster lasts for 4-5 days but then there's support for a milder breakdown on 15th. 

Our first ice days of the season appear in a couple of runs.

on a serous note, ensembles are starting to look encouraging. ECM offers support too. 

Personally I think we are looking at a very mild and quite unsettled December. I think temp anomaly will end up around 2c above average for December with average to slightly above average rainfall in an Atlantic dominated month. The models are all over the place flip flopping between blocking to the East and a more typical Atlantic regime. My money remains on the latter but time, as ever, will tell.

The 6z ENS might look better than this mornings run , but I wouldn't get totally excited just yet.

The Met Update is of changeable weather no sustained cold , its January onwards ( mid month) I think the fun will start as per their ( Met ) winter forecast 

The Met Update is probably based on MO which is a couple of days old. The charts we are seeing now will lead to it being updated next time with a more wintry outlook I believe.

UK and Gem good 12z's 

GFS creates the deepest of LP's bombing across the Atlantic, always wise to see GEFS before commenting 

Not too sure about exceptionally mild 

In that case I hope the CFS and Beijing Climate Centre have both given Gavin due acknowledgement. :)

Or is it the other way round?

It seems GFS has been veering from one extreme* to the other over the past fortnight or so, with ECM and MO (by dint of their shorter time period covered) appearing a little less erratic.

* extreme for the UK, that is. As is usual for us, we seem on the boundary between two different weather areas, so a trajectory of lows changing even just a few hundred miles north or south makes a massive difference to our actual weather

In my experience, it is quite normal for the GFS op runs to be erractic at this time of year. I think there would be something not quite right if every single run was in agreement!

I personally prefer to see what ECM, and UKMO too, produce in their op runs before coming to any conclusions.

That gave me my biggest chuckle today. Excellent stuff.

GFS don't look massively different to earlier to me, just the Op picks one of the mild solutions. Overall the scatter starting just before the 11th suggests it's a finely balanced situation and one which will mean big differences on the ground depending on which way things tip. More runs needed and all that.....

ECM 168: Suffice to say, would be a good chart if within the reliable, which tends to be <120 hrs in an easterly.

and 192 850s and SLP:

My,my, a cracking ECM run so far, UKMO looks solid too  GFS however much more unconvincing, still some proper cold runs appearing in the ens tho.

Well, with the 12Z output today, we need the ECM and UKMO to verify - the least favoured big model is GFS, although JMA and Icon are equally binnable.

Which way will the dice fall over the weekend and into next week?