The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
30 November 2018 11:29:23
This morning's ECM op run is certainly not without interest. A deep depression over the UK at 192hrs running into some pretty cold air just to our east, and tentative height rises to our north.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
30 November 2018 11:30:05

The output for Coldies is getting worse day by day I think we can use the word zonal now. At least 2 weeks before any significant cold and you'd be a brave man to predict any significant cold this side of Christmas.  GFS and ECM ensembles look poor out to day 15. Fairplay to that BBC forecast a couple of weeks back that dismissed any cold that was showing in plenty of the output. It was odd to us amateurs but its proved spot on. Beeb beating Meto so far this winter.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I concur that you can probably write off much of December now. I know that sounds ridiculous but from past experience we all know once a zonal spell sets up it gets very much stuck in a rut. Still some slight interest in extreme FI but nothing more than usual background noise IMO.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Whether Idle
30 November 2018 11:59:30

This morning's ECM op run is certainly not without interest. A deep depression over the UK at 192hrs running into some pretty cold air just to our east, and tentative height rises to our north.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, noted that.  Mixed messages from the models.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
30 November 2018 12:14:17

 I know that sounds ridiculous but from past experience we all know once a zonal spell sets up it gets very much stuck in a rut.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

That seems to be one of those clichés we see on here a lot but without much evidence to back it up. In my experience prolonged zonal spells have been pretty rare in recent years, with the Atlantic struggling to get going at all, and often being shut out by rebuilding HP before it has a chance to affect us much.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
30 November 2018 12:15:09

 

Yes, noted that.  Mixed messages from the models.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

I only mentioned the next 7-10 days as likely Atlantic driven. It’s foolish to assume a pattern is set for weeks and I’m surprised some still think that.

A quick look at the 06Z GEFS illustrates my point. Not saying it will happen but the ‘where did that come from’ scenario is always possible.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Rob K
30 November 2018 12:49:03

 

A quick look at the 06Z GEFS illustrates my point. Not saying it will happen but the ‘where did that come from’ scenario is always possible.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes, three members hitting -10C on the London ensemble again. Lost in the noise at this stage but does show plenty of options are still being played with by the computers!

 

And actually, at least one of them, P1, looks rather similar to the ECM at the same timeframe:

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
30 November 2018 13:15:49

 

Yes, three members hitting -10C on the London ensemble again. Lost in the noise at this stage but does show plenty of options are still being played with by the computers!

 

And actually, at least one of them, P1, looks rather similar to the ECM at the same timeframe:

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I’m on your wavelength Rob. The tree and decorations go up tomorrow and I’d like to enjoy a few Stella runs to get me in the festive spirit 😉

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

David M Porter
30 November 2018 14:16:36

 

That seems to be one of those clichés we see on here a lot but without much evidence to back it up. In my experience prolonged zonal spells have been pretty rare in recent years, with the Atlantic struggling to get going at all, and often being shut out by rebuilding HP before it has a chance to affect us much.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Agree completely there, Rob.

Looking at the last couple of winters, how many long-lasting zonal spells did we have in either of those? Not any that I can recall although neither was a partiucarly cold winter. Aside from 2013/14 and 2015/16, we haven't had many if any other winters in recent times that have been dominated by such spells, and the events of those two winters were almost as exceptional as December 2010 but in a totally different way.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Chunky Pea
30 November 2018 14:47:12

 

Agree completely there, Rob.

Looking at the last couple of winters, how many long-lasting zonal spells did we have in either of those? Not any that I can recall although neither was a partiucarly cold winter. Aside from 2013/14 and 2015/16, we haven't had many if any other winters in recent times that have been dominated by such spells, and the events of those two winters were almost as exceptional as December 2010 but in a totally different way.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

As far as zonal spells go, even this current one is very lame and almost as lack-lustre as the recent easterly spell.  Very groundhoggy day sort of Autumn overall. Hopefully things will perk up one way or the other this coming Winter. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Downpour
30 November 2018 14:48:57

Great post

 

That seems to be one of those clichés we see on here a lot but without much evidence to back it up. In my experience prolonged zonal spells have been pretty rare in recent years, with the Atlantic struggling to get going at all, and often being shut out by rebuilding HP before it has a chance to affect us much.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Downpour
30 November 2018 14:50:35

This post is a banker. It’s often bitten, never shy with you.

I concur that you can probably write off much of December now. I know that sounds ridiculous but from past experience we all know once a zonal spell sets up it gets very much stuck in a rut. Still some slight interest in extreme FI but nothing more than usual background noise IMO.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Chingford

London E4

147ft

moomin75
30 November 2018 16:17:07

This post is a banker. It’s often bitten, never shy with you.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Come back to me at the end of December and let's see how we have fared. I rather fancy a much above average month in terms of rainfall and temperatures but am hoping I'm very wrong as always.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Solar Cycles
30 November 2018 16:49:13
A week away from here and I comeback to find the wheels have fallen off any projected cold spell on the horizon.😂😂

At this moment in time there’s no getting away from the fact that the Atlantic and it’s accompanying bouts of wind and rain will be effecting us all for the foreseeable, maybe something more akin to seasonal mid month if the jet dives to our South a little.

All talk of 62/63 will have to be out in the back burner for now though. 😜

doctormog
30 November 2018 16:51:15

A week away from here and I comeback to find the wheels have fallen off any projected cold spell on the horizon.😂😂

At this moment in time there’s no getting away from the fact that the Atlantic and it’s accompanying bouts of wind and rain will be effecting us all for the foreseeable, maybe something more akin to seasonal mid month if the jet dives to our South a little.

All talk of 62/63 will have to be out in the back burner for now though. 😜

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

The only 62/63 we’re likely to get is Fahrenheit 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Solar Cycles
30 November 2018 16:59:56

 

The only 62/63 we’re likely to get is Fahrenheit 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I’ve just seen Gav’s JMA update so you could possibly be right. 😕

doctormog
30 November 2018 17:08:05
I often wonder why people seem surprised when the Met Office change the wording in their medium range forecasts. What do people expect them to do if the consensus in the model output for the similiar time frame changes? Ignore it and stick with outdated data?
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gandalf The White
30 November 2018 17:20:22

 

The dreaded "zonal Bartlett". IMO without question the worst winter weather there is. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You surprise me, Brian.  I've not seen any consistent signals for a Bartlett pattern in any of the output.  It looks like a period of zonality but nothing that suggests it is set to continue beyond a few days.

Only a few days ago the charts were showing mild zonality and now we've got a north-westerly and Polar/Arctic air in the mix.

The GFS 12z doesn't offer up unrelenting zonality either.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
30 November 2018 17:23:40

I often wonder why people seem surprised when the Met Office change the wording in their medium range forecasts. What do people expect them to do if the consensus in the model output for the similiar time frame changes? Ignore it and stick with outdated data?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

We have this debate on a regular basis. Some people complain that it changes too often; others that the latest charts (usually GFS) show something different and therefore the Met Office must be wrong.  It's the same when they hedge their bets in the longer term - if the models show no clear pattern then they have to reflect that.

If the output changes consistently then their forecast will change.  

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



doctormog
30 November 2018 17:25:26

 

We have this debate on a regular basis. Some people complain that it changes too often; others that the latest charts (usually GFS) show something different and therefore the Met Office must be wrong.  It's the same when they hedge their bets in the longer term - if the models show no clear pattern then they have to reflect that.

If the output changes consistently then their forecast will change.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

johncs2016
30 November 2018 17:44:09

I’ve just seen Gav’s JMA update so you could possibly be right. 😕

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I've seen that as well and if both the JMA and the CFS are right here, next month could end up being more like a repeat of December 2015 (which was also the last time that we had a wetter than average winter here), rather than any repeat of December 2010.

If that comes off, it will be good to see the reservoirs being topped up with some much needed rainfall. At the same time though, I would be a bit concerned for people whose homes might be flooded out in the meantime if that rainfall turns out to be heavy enough.

 

 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Polar Low
30 November 2018 17:51:30

Perhaps the key here Peter is the fact that the updates are issued too often

Perhaps once a week updates would give a clearer and better picture regarding medium and long term outlooks.

I can remember a few years ago I used to ring up for the automated long term forecast that  also used to change too much to make it worth while and before a certain member says anything I’m not insulting ones intelligence who constructed these forecast I appreciate the education involved.

 

 

We have this debate on a regular basis. Some people complain that it changes too often; others that the latest charts (usually GFS) show something different and therefore the Met Office must be wrong.  It's the same when they hedge their bets in the longer term - if the models show no clear pattern then they have to reflect that.

If the output changes consistently then their forecast will change.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Brian Gaze
30 November 2018 17:52:37

A week away from here and I comeback to find the wheels have fallen off any projected cold spell on the horizon.😂😂

At this moment in time there’s no getting away from the fact that the Atlantic and it’s accompanying bouts of wind and rain will be effecting us all for the foreseeable, maybe something more akin to seasonal mid month if the jet dives to our South a little.

All talk of 62/63 will have to be out in the back burner for now though. 😜

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

That's nothing. Some people were talking about a mythical Victorian era winter at one point. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

JACKO4EVER
30 November 2018 18:12:49
😂😂🤮
Rob K
30 November 2018 18:40:38
Anyway there's a big Scandi high at 384hrs on the GFS op run, so 1963 is back on ;o)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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