Bit of a December dangler

The 06Z GFS is teasing us at T+384. :)

There does appear to be more general Model Certainty that upto 6th and maybe even the 7th December 2018, Winds from the SW and West NW are going to be very strong on a good number of days and we shall expect some moderation of these winds at times and there are going to be areas of Low Pressure associated with some regular wet rainy weather.

Colder weather could develop on Saturday 7th or Sunday 8th December 2018, as the Cold Greenland and Icelandic High build SE to our West and NW.

NW Atlantic West NW Atlantic by the 8th and to the 10th Dec. 2018, SW to NE direction of Low Pressure with High pressure building across NE Atlantic NW Europe at T216 T240 hours.

This needs more watching as it looks like Western and NW Greenland eastern NE USA SE Canada could see them affected by SW NNE moving PV Low... Cold Arctic Northerly from the Western Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic to UK and North NW Europe at 216-240 hours looks very interesting indeed.

😆😉😀.

GFS is foreacsting a Strat Warming in the coming days (arguable as to whether it would qualify as an SSW and it is only a forecast at the moment).

If that forecast verifies, then it is extremely likely that we would see a renewed outbreak of HLB - the Trop is still not fully in sync with the Strat so I suspect that disruption of the Strat vortex would propagate down more quickly than usual.

Could be an interesting few weeks of weather coming up once the present dross has been dealt with.

interesting model watching in the next 2 weeks and optimistic we will see cold before xmas

Hello, where did this come from? Snow risk in the Midlands and even further south next Tuesday night?

It's a sleet risk generally on that chart - if you look, the white shading overlaps the blue rain shading. The northern edge of the band is just white though, which would indeed be snow.

It's also not a million miles away (more like 200 miles :P) from the MetO update, which mentions snow in northern areas as colder northerlies cut in behind departing lows.

ICON 12z looks similar to the GFS 12z next Tuesday. GEM 12z I think has the ppt farther south and keeps it as rain. 

It's not further* south it's Farther* then?

dreadful outlook continues for coldies tonight- raging Atlantic winds and rain laden depressions with no end in sight.

Tidied. Looks poor for the south for sure but might not necessarily be the case for northern areas. The output doesn't indicate any freeze for sure but I don't see a Bartlett-type set-up being suggested either. Some of the output suggests a chilly W/NW airflow at times later on. My area had 5-6 days of falling snow in the middle of January this year from such a set-up.

Brian? The UK Pizza slice is back over us again doing it's triangle!

This is the 3rd slice of Pizza for usand we are only at +264z 

yes it’s the Pizza Express 

👍😄 I like that one - might catch on.

The outlook for our latitude continues to be one of Atlantic domination with no clearly discernible route back to M or HLB in the next 7-10 days. 

I'm not to pleased to see the HP building over Europe especially to our south as this just weakens Atlantic systems in our neck of the woods to a breezy mild mizzle. Possibly the worse winter weather there is.

Every other days seems to present crumbs of comfort and then we are back to square one. I noticed this morning a significant cold plunge off the NE of America. Always spells bad news. Going to need to focus on upstream changes and hope for the best. I hate mild Decembers.

The dreaded "zonal Bartlett". IMO without question the worst winter weather there is. 

The output for Coldies is getting worse day by day I think we can use the word zonal now. At least 2 weeks before any significant cold and you'd be a brave man to predict any significant cold this side of Christmas.  GFS and ECM ensembles look poor out to day 15. Fairplay to that BBC forecast a couple of weeks back that dismissed any cold that was showing in plenty of the output. It was odd to us amateurs but its proved spot on. Beeb beating Meto so far this winter.

Looking very Atlantic driven for now but I'm not worried as we're are just arriving at the start of the winter season.

Plenty of time yet for a freeze up.