Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead video and written forecast;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Starting unsettled and very cool but becoming drier and eventually a little warmer by mid-week.

Have got the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead (JFF) coming up this evening @ GWV.

Tomorrow will be the third winter 2018/19 update + The latest EC & Meteo France seasonal model update for September 2018.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the Fourth Winter 2018/19 Update: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

EDIT 2: Here's the EC and Meteo France seasonal model update for September 2018: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-meteo-france-seasonal-model-forecasts.php

Cheers Gavin - Thanks. Autumn is well and truly here.

Thank you Gavin for your Autumnal thoughts.   Still got leaves on the trees to enjoy the color.

^^^^

Thanks both! 

Here's the fourth Winter 2018/19 Update;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Looking at Solar Activity, ENSO, 2018 hurricane activity, arctic sea ice extent and a particular focus on Atlantic Ocean SST's.

This video will be placed on with Winter 18/19 updates page page with a written summary anyone who can't watch the video later.

Thanks for this Gavin! Now I have some distraction with my coffee before tackling some much neeeded job busting today. 

Thank you Gav 🙂 Any chance you'll look at the SOI, and QBO as well as temps in stratosphere??

Those colder than average SST's around in 1991? WOW but was due to Volcanic acrtivity?! and has a similar chart in Sept 1990 similar to 2018 as you said if we were to pick a match with SST in Atlantic similar pattern to 2018 it would be 1990 - we all know what happened end of Jan into Feb 1991? Also looking at that chart around 43:00 when it shows September 1990 it looked like ENSO neutral too in the Pacific as well as colder than average waters off coast of Chile similar to now and Norwegian sea looks warmer than average like now? Looks like we could have an ENSO neutral winter for 2018/19?

Thanks Gavin!  

Nevertheless, this is all shaping up to be very interesting indeed.

Earlier on this year, we had our coldest March since 2013 so it will be interesting to see whether or not, the coming winter shapes up to be not too dissimilar to the winter of 2010/11 (albeit with a colder February than what we had back in 2011) which is what that model output seems to be implying.

The ECM seasonal output looks similar to the anologues you get if you use solar minimum winters over the last 50 years. It's not clear if this will be the solar min bottom, or wether that will be next winter (my 'guess' is next winter), but solar will definitely be low.

^^^^^

Thanks guys. 

Tally, yes they'll be a LOT more on the QBO in the coming weeks and months and expect to see the SOI soon.

Beng, next week's Winter update will actually be a solar special! I'm really looking forward to it. 

Have added the fourth winter 2018/19 update to the winter updates page + A written summary going over everything we discuss in the video for those that can't watch the vid;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

And here's the link to the EC and Meteo France seasonal model update that's already been mentioned above:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-meteo-france-seasonal-model-forecasts.php

The plot really is thickening lol! 

Thanks, Gavin. Very interesting. Just one quibble, though:

We begin the fourth Winter 2018/19 update with some "outside the box" analogues. We add up all the CET's for January to June 2018 and combine them the totals. The we look at past January to June's that are close to 2018's Jan-Jun CET total. We come out with years 1920, 1938, 1945, 1948 1976 and 1993.

I'm not convinced that that has any validity, as just going with the 6-month totals will lump together years with very different temperature profiles; for example you could have a year with cold Jan-Mar but mild Apr-Jun having the same total as a year having mild Jan-Mar but cold Apr-Jun.

And ECMWF & maybe BCC are the most reliable out of all of the seasonal models! CFSv2 is the most unreliable one not to mention the most mildest of them all, they never go for colder than average months anywhere in their longer range outlook.  

 Fantastic. It's going to be a big player either this winter or next (or maybe both).

It's great to see your weather site and videos (don't think anyone else comes close in terms of content/quality for the UK in terms of the Videos). 

Looking forward to hanging out at Two this winter - the debate is more mature/sensible here than other places IMHO & Brian is more sensible regarding moderation.

^^^^^^

Awwwwwwww.... Thanks Beng. That is very kind my friend. 

Thanks for all the comments guys.