The Weather Outlook

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noodle doodle
04 September 2018 13:47:18
Weird how 1983 is holding out on high ground (Scottish highlands, Brecon beacons, pennines and lake district in Cumbria). What particular properties would be needed to do that? (Apart from not measuring there in the other years, hopefully not)
Phil 2804
04 September 2018 15:26:07

 

 

It was late July when the summer became much more of a SE'ern affair. Yes, most other parts (Aberdeen excluded..) had some nice days/briefer spells after this, but the long periods of warm/hot, sunny, settled weather that had characterised May/June/July had ended for most of the UK.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

First week of August was the warmest week in Aberdeen since July 2006, and warmest of 2018. I was up there for the duration of it so I know, whatever other posters might say. 

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
04 September 2018 16:16:07
First half of June was often cool east winds with drizzle here, and since the first thundery breakdown on 16th July it has been nice enough but only more or less average.

So a core four weeks or so of unusually good summer weather.

Comparing this year with 1976 is rather absurd, even further south there were higher maximums for longer surely.

1976 was much hotter here and drier for longer.


Devonian
04 September 2018 16:34:47

First half of June was often cool east winds with drizzle here, and since the first thundery breakdown on 16th July it has been nice enough but only more or less average.
So a core four weeks or so of unusually good summer weather.
Comparing this year with 1976 is rather absurd, even further south there were higher maximums for longer surely.
1976 was much hotter here and drier for longer.

Originally Posted by: four 

Interesting - but your part of the world never seems to see decent warm weather!

In 1976 it was just a dust bowl here until it rained (from late August onwards). This time we've had, a little, rain and the countryside now looks green again but it's every bit as dry as '76 going by springs and streams - with little prospect of meaningful rain in sight the dry spell is dragging on and the grass suffering again. We've been forecast meaningful rain several times recently and barely seen more than some drizzle. In old money many inches of rain are needed to bring soils back to normal values - in other words we need a wet winter.

As to temperature, we've not matched the spell of intense heat that late June/July '76 saw but overall I think its been as good a summer as then with many intensely warm days in July, and just a few cool days in August.

lanky
04 September 2018 18:22:32

If you look at 1976 and 2018 on the basis of the Summer Index formula that Kevin B uses

10*(Mean Max JJA + Sun Hours JJA/67 - Rain Days JJA/8)

Then 1976 beats 2018 by a country mile

The Met Office Regional Data for Summer 2018 is now out and when using this to compare the two dates then 1976 comes out on top in every region

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Hungry Tiger
04 September 2018 20:03:36

If you look at 1976 and 2018 on the basis of the Summer Index formula that Kevin B uses

10*(Mean Max JJA + Sun Hours JJA/67 - Rain Days JJA/8)

Then 1976 beats 2018 by a country mile

The Met Office Regional Data for Summer 2018 is now out and when using this to compare the two dates then 1976 comes out on top in every region

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

June 1976 had a CET of 17.0C - June this year had a CET of 16.1C Also this year August was much cooler than 1976.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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Andy J
04 September 2018 20:09:36

Considering that there seems to have been less extreme heat in Summer 2018 compared to 1976, would I be correct in thinking that it's been the minimum temps that have been particularly high this Summer?, as of course we haven't seen anything like the extreme heat that Summer 76 had from June 23rd-Jul 7th.  Somewhere reached at least 32C on every day during that spell.


Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
xioni2
04 September 2018 20:19:54

If you look at 1976 and 2018 on the basis of the Summer Index formula that Kevin B uses

10*(Mean Max JJA + Sun Hours JJA/67 - Rain Days JJA/8)

Then 1976 beats 2018 by a country mile

The Met Office Regional Data for Summer 2018 is now out and when using this to compare the two dates then 1976 comes out on top in every region

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Thanks, can you do the same for May-Aug for these 2 years?

lanky
04 September 2018 20:25:02

Considering that there seems to have been less extreme heat in Summer 2018 compared to 1976, would I be correct in thinking that it's been the minimum temps that have been particularly high this Summer?, as of course we haven't seen anything like the extreme heat that Summer 76 had from June 23rd-Jul 7th.  Somewhere reached at least 32C on every day during that spell.

Originally Posted by: Andy J 

That's exactly it

The Mean temperature was the highest recorded for England because although the Max's were lower than in 1976, the Min's were sufficiently elevated to bring the overall mean higher than 1976

Details are in

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Frank H
04 September 2018 22:14:43

 

IMBY 1976 is still the warmest (records back to 1970) both on max or average temp. 

1975,1983,1995 and 2006 were up there with 2018 for warmth.

2018 got going earlier than 1976 and there were a lot of warm days early June until early August but 30c was only surpassed once, in late June. It is now 12 years since 90f (32c) has been recorded here. 

What I will most remember about 2018 is the spell of almost continuous sunshine for over 2 weeks late June and early July. It seemed like the only time the sun wasn't shining was when it was obscured by the Winter Hill fire. This also follows a warm and sunny May.

August disappointed for sunshine which now seems to be the norm .


Wrightington, Wigan
David M Porter
05 September 2018 08:22:05

One thing I hadn't realised until I saw the BBC News story on Monday is that the summers of 2003 and 2006, along with 2018, also hold the title of joint-hottest UK summers with 1976. Oddly enough, I don't recall the media saying at the end of the summers of '03 and '06 that they had been the joint-hottest with '76, but maybe my memory isn't quite what it was!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

andy-manc
05 September 2018 09:56:35

One thing I hadn't realised until I saw the BBC News story on Monday is that the summers of 2003 and 2006, along with 2018, also hold the title of joint-hottest UK summers with 1976. Oddly enough, I don't recall the media saying at the end of the summers of '03 and '06 that they had been the joint-hottest with '76, but maybe my memory isn't quite what it was!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I blame the Internet. We are all so obsessed with chasing records and comparing these days, probably even more than in 2003 and 2006. We spend so much time obsessing over the stats and if it will equal other years than actually just enjoying the weather! There's been talk of this summer competing with 1976 since early June.

(well that's how it feels for me anyway)

lanky
05 September 2018 11:22:12

 

Thanks, can you do the same for May-Aug for these 2 years?

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I haven't bothered with the coloured maps again but if you alter the calculation from JJA to MJJA and amend Kev's formula so that the influence of Mean Max T, Rain Days and Sun Hours stays the same as before then instead of every region showing 1976 way ahead of 2018 you get 2018 being ahead of 1976 in all the Northern Regions but still behind 1976 in 3 of the Southern ones (East Anglia, S&SE England, SW England & S Wales)

the May of 1976 was more typical of a spring month whereas 2018 was definitely early summer. The UK average maxima were 14.6 in 1976 and 17.3 in 2018 so no surprise to see such a major turnaround.

In the Northern regions especially, the sunshine hours in May 1976 were only around half those in May 2018 and the rain days were around double

The Met Office Regional Stats page has all the exact data

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

 

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

KevBrads1
05 September 2018 13:42:56
Driest summers on record for England and Wales (mm)

66.9 1995

 74.0 1976

91.5 1800

98.9 1869

 102.6 1818

110.8 1983

 112.3 1887

114.4 1913

 118.1 1864

121.8 1826

121.9 1949

 124.0 1780

 128.0 1984

 131.1 1870

 132.3 2018


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Russwirral
05 September 2018 14:38:11

Met Office graphic showing hottest summers. (Source: UK Met Office) 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

They need to do a similar graphic for winters, it would resolve a lot of squabbles on here.

 

Interesting how the records are quite stable and broad lasting over the eastern side of the UK, but fragmented and locally significant on the western side.


jhall
05 September 2018 17:20:15

 

They need to do a similar graphic for winters, it would resolve a lot of squabbles on here.

 

Interesting how the records are quite stable and broad lasting over the eastern side of the UK, but fragmented and locally significant on the western side.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I think you'd find that a similar graphic for the coldest winters would show 1962-3 winning by a country mile over pretty much all of England and Wales (assuming the data doesn't go back far enough for 1739-40 or 1683-4 to be considered), but with different winters perhaps ahead for Scotland and NI.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Nick Gilly
05 September 2018 19:13:24
What I fin interesting is that the long hot summer was preceded by an early May hot spell, which coincided with the first Bank Holiday weekend. There definitely seems to be a link between early May hot spells and the subsequent summer being warmer and drier than average. I wonder what it is?
KevBrads1
06 September 2018 04:13:06

What I fin interesting is that the long hot summer was preceded by an early May hot spell, which coincided with the first Bank Holiday weekend. There definitely seems to be a link between early May hot spells and the subsequent summer being warmer and drier than average. I wonder what it is?

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

May 1975 and 1983 didn't have early May hot spells. Neither did May 1984.

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 September 2018 06:04:34

 

I think you'd find that a similar graphic for the coldest winters would show 1962-3 winning by a country mile over pretty much all of England and Wales (assuming the data doesn't go back far enough for 1739-40 or 1683-4 to be considered), but with different winters perhaps ahead for Scotland and NI.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

1947 must be in with a shout


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Phil 2804
06 September 2018 08:00:34

 

I think you'd find that a similar graphic for the coldest winters would show 1962-3 winning by a country mile over pretty much all of England and Wales (assuming the data doesn't go back far enough for 1739-40 or 1683-4 to be considered), but with different winters perhaps ahead for Scotland and NI.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

 

Across Northern Scotland I'd wager 54/55 would come out top. About as severe as it gets with a state of emergency being declared leading to Operation Snowdrop. 

lanky
06 September 2018 08:12:02

 

 

Across Northern Scotland I'd wager 54/55 would come out top. About as severe as it gets with a state of emergency being declared leading to Operation Snowdrop. 

Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 

Regional Data from the Met Office :-

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets#rankOrdered

Use Region Selection +Rank Ordered + Mean Temp + Winter column to get all winters from 1910 to 2018 ranked by average mean temperature for the selected region

I think N Scotland is the only region NOT to have 1963 (1962/3) as the coldest but it is 2010 that beat it not 1955

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

David M Porter
06 September 2018 08:55:52

 

May 1975 and 1983 didn't have early May hot spells. Neither did May 1984.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

That's ture Kevin, although I do recall the first week of May 1995 being gloriously warm and sunny in my neck of the woods before it have way to a cold northerly spell the following week which included the latest ever snowfall I can remember in this part of the world. May 1989 was also a good month from what I recall, rather like this May. Don't seem to remember the Mays of 2003 and 2006 being particularly good though.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

jhall
06 September 2018 17:38:55

 

1947 must be in with a shout

Originally Posted by: DEW 

But that only turned severely cold around 20th January, with the traditional winter season more than half over. And of course the cold first half of March wouldn't count towards the coldness of the winter.  Whereas 1962-3 turned severely cold around 23rd December, and even before that December temperatures had been below average.


Cranleigh, Surrey
jhall
06 September 2018 17:44:29

What I fin interesting is that the long hot summer was preceded by an early May hot spell, which coincided with the first Bank Holiday weekend. There definitely seems to be a link between early May hot spells and the subsequent summer being warmer and drier than average. I wonder what it is?

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Somebody once came up with a rule of thumb that if there was a warm spell of three or more consecutive days in May with maximum of 25C or more (or it might have been 24), then it was a sign of a warm summer. That was for where they lived, which IIRC was SE England. That seems to work pretty well. They had a similar rule for cold winters being indicated by a cold spell of three or more consecutive days earlier than Christmas with a maximum of 3C (was it?) or below.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Nick Gilly
06 September 2018 18:37:27

 

May 1975 and 1983 didn't have early May hot spells. Neither did May 1984.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

No but 1976, 1990, 1995 and 2006 did. 1976 and 1995 were particularly notable summers for dryness, sunshine, and warmth!

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