The Weather Outlook

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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 August 2018 12:44:37

Hello folks,

Here's the video and written versions of the weather forecast for the week ahead;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Temperatures quite cool overall and fairly dry (except for a possible deluge tomorrow)

Becoming very warm by next weekend...

Will have the Autumn 2018 forecast @ GWV tomorrow which means Winter 18/19 update will be commencing shortly. 

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

 

EDIT: Here's the Autumn 2018 Forecast: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2018-weather-forecast.php

EDIT 2: Here's the Winter 2018/19 "Sneak Peek" https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

 

 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gusty
25 August 2018 13:22:11
ARTzeman
25 August 2018 13:23:36
idj20
25 August 2018 13:25:53
Sharp Green Fox
25 August 2018 16:22:39
johncs2016
25 August 2018 17:04:48
Thanks Gavin.

The only thing which I'll add is that I'm not one of the brigade who is hoping for a return to summer-like conditions because in my book, next weekend is too late for me as we will then be into meteorological autumn.

Once that happens, I am someone who would then rather just be getting on with autumn at that point in time, rather than being pushed back into summer yet all too often in recent years (with last year being one notable exception to that), we have had crap weather during August with summer then returning during September.

To me, we had enough proper summer weather during June and July to ensure that we have been rather spoiled for that this year anyway. Because of that, I'm not too bother about whether there is any more summer weather to come or not but if there was some more summer weather to come, I would much rather have been getting that during this month (since that is supposed to part of the actual summer) rather than wait until next month which is then, supposed to be part of our autumn.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Gavin P
26 August 2018 09:06:59

^^^^^

Thanks a lot guys! 

 

John, I do have some sympathy for that. We has enough Summer to last us ten Summers duing 2018 so why not get on with Auutmn during September?

Also it's always very surreal when I'm doing Winter updates in 30C+ heat in September (though I suppose no more surreal than doing Summer updates while it's snowing in March! 

Anyway here's the Autumn 2018 forecast;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/

After three months, eight analogues updates and three seasonal model round-up's we have reached the end of the journey!

Will place this video on the Autumn forecast page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video later.

This afternoon we'll have a little "sneak peek" for Winter 18/19 as the long range bandwagon rolls on... 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 August 2018 18:09:30

Have added the Autumn 2018 forecast to the Autumn 2018 forecast page + A written forecast for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2018-weather-forecast.php

We're on to Winter 2018/19 next Sunday.

Speaking of which there's been a Winter 2018/19 "sneak peek" released today. Check it out:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Tomorrow's Bank Holiday Monday historic video is going all the way back to 1868-1869 (from Summer to Winter)

So look out for that! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Solar Cycles
27 August 2018 19:07:29
Gavin P
28 August 2018 10:40:17
Global Warming
28 August 2018 20:09:12
johncs2016
28 August 2018 20:44:32

Thanks Gavin

On the QBO the westerly element is starting to show its hand high in the atmosphere. Still very negative at the critical 30hPa level but in July the negative number at the 20hPa level went from -31 to -8. Expect that to filter down to the 30hPa level by September. The figures often flip from -30 to positive in just one or two months. So by the time we get to winter I would expect the QBO to be westerly.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2018.dat

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Oh Dear!!

I was hoping that the easterly QBO would have hung on a bit longer and thus, improved our chances of a cold winter since a westerly QBO favours a mild winter rather than a cold one.

On the other hand, the chances of us getting a cold winter should still be looking good from a solar activity perspective since we are expected to be going into the solar minimum winter.

The fact that ENSO neutral conditions are looking likely to prevail during the rest of the year might help a bit as well. If it is ENSO neutral, that might not actually have any effect on our winter, but the fact that models are currently backing away from a possible El Nino might mean help to favour a colder winter.

Finally, if it is true that the warm SSTs in the Norwegian Sea (in conjunction with last winter's SSW event) helped to bring about the really cold and severe end to last winter, there is no reason why they can't do so again.

All in all, I would say that it is looking reasonably OK for a cold winter from the initial perspective, although that might still change over time due to the effects from other events which haven't yet happened, such as Eurasian snow cover during the coming autumn with the only downside being that possible early switch to a westerly QBO.

 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 August 2018 21:13:19

Thanks Gavin

On the QBO the westerly element is starting to show its hand high in the atmosphere. Still very negative at the critical 30hPa level but in July the negative number at the 20hPa level went from -31 to -8. Expect that to filter down to the 30hPa level by September. The figures often flip from -30 to positive in just one or two months. So by the time we get to winter I would expect the QBO to be westerly.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2018.dat

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW.

 

Yes, was expected we'd start to move into the westerly phase of the QBO this Autumn so certainly isn't a surprise.

Suspect we'll go weakly westerly (at 30hpa) by November/December but there's always month or two delay before it really seems to impact the atmosphere so early winter especially could be OK.

 

 

Oh Dear!!

I was hoping that the easterly QBO would have hung on a bit longer and thus, improved our chances of a cold winter since a westerly QBO favours a mild winter rather than a cold one.

On the other hand, the chances of us getting a cold winter should still be looking good from a solar activity perspective since we are expected to be going into the solar minimum winter.

The fact that ENSO neutral conditions are looking likely to prevail during the rest of the year might help a bit as well. If it is ENSO neutral, that might not actually have any effect on our winter, but the fact that models are currently backing away from a possible El Nino might mean help to favour a colder winter.

Finally, if it is true that the warm SSTs in the Norwegian Sea (in conjunction with last winter's SSW event) helped to bring about the really cold and severe end to last winter, there is no reason why they can't do so again.

All in all, I would say that it is looking reasonably OK for a cold winter from the initial perspective, although that might still change over time due to the effects from other events which haven't yet happened, such as Eurasian snow cover during the coming autumn with the only downside being that possible early switch to a westerly QBO.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

 

Indeed John. Will be a lot of keep an eye on (as always)

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

johncs2016
28 August 2018 22:02:51
tallyho_83
28 August 2018 22:44:47

 

 so early winter especially could be OK.

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

You mean ok as in Okay for cold and snow potential or OK as in that we will still be in an easterly QBO?

 

I actually don't mind if it's mild as long as it isn't wet! WHat I really crave for is snow around the Xmas time - we have had so many cold starts to December only for it to warm up in the run up to Xmas - it's uncountable now! Let it snow when the nights are long and days are short so the snow can last - we are missing the cold blast around Xmas lately! at the best we have had is a north westerly. Last proper white Xmas was Xmas day 2004 if i remember.  

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

CreweCold
30 August 2018 03:02:49

I forgot to add as well though, is that if the Atlantic is set up for a positive NAO during the winter in the manner in which Gavin P. has indicated in that NAO forecast, that won't be good news for our chances of a cold winter and that is why I have rated our chances of a cold winter as being OK rather than really good.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I think the chances of a cold, snowy winter are slim at best. The SST profile set up is all wrong. A +NAO winter is the form horse for me unfortunately. From my perspective it's all about how positive the NAO signature goes and whether we see a mild, dry set up or a mild and wet one. 

Just looked at the CFS averaged run for Jan and it's grim

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd5.gif

The most recent GLOSEA update was also a stinker. Not too dissimilar with pressure higher to our S and a +NAO 

The issue is with pressure so anomalously high to our S, we'll struggle to even see a toppler.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Brian Gaze
30 August 2018 05:43:19