The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
25 August 2018 08:49:54

 

My estimate for summer CET stands at 17.37 currently.  August to come in around 17.0, all subject to change. Fascinating.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Mine's not far below yours WI-now around 17.3 for the summer; I was away during the August prediction window, so I don't have an official one. 

It was a chilly one last night, that's for sure.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Global Warming
25 August 2018 08:50:27

Still looking at a 16.7C finish for the August CET and a 17.32C finish for the summer CET based on the latest data.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

SUMMER CET

Global Warming
25 August 2018 08:55:54

This morning's minimum CET was 7.8C. Not that low really although it is 3.8C below average. Only the lowest reading since 23 June.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
25 August 2018 09:15:50
15.6C (+1.2C) here up to this morning.

I suspect it will drop back another half degree through the final week.


ARTzeman
25 August 2018 10:26:54

Met office Hadley       17.8c       Anomaly      1.9c    provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    17.72c     Anomaly      1.50c

Netweather                 18.34c     Anomaly      0.7c

Alton                         17.7c      Anomaly      0.7c

Canvey Island            19.3c      Anomaly      1.1c

Cheadle Hulme           17.4c     Anomaly       1.24c

Clevedon Weather       18.5c    Anomaly        1.15c

Darwen                       17.6c    Anomaly       1.12c

Hexam                        16.9c    Anomaly       1.34c

Mount Sorrel                18.1c    Anomaly       1.47c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.0c    Anomaly    1.4c

Peasedown St John  17.1c    Anomaly  -1.32c

Treviskey Redruth         17.2c      Anomaly  0.68c.

Al My 10 Stations are with a 5 year average. 

Mean of my 10 watched stations    17.78c          




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gavin P
25 August 2018 10:29:22

 

We shouldn't complain but we should feel bitterly disappointed by the crash in the last week.

I guess this is the start of the decline towards the long hard frigid winter of 2018/19. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Or not! 

 

Met office Hadley       17.8c       Anomaly      1.9c    provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    17.72c     Anomaly      1.50c

Netweather                 18.34c     Anomaly      0.7c

Alton                         17.7c      Anomaly      0.7c

Canvey Island            19.3c      Anomaly      1.1c

Cheadle Hulme           17.4c     Anomaly       1.24c

Clevedon Weather       18.5c    Anomaly        1.15c

Darwen                       17.6c    Anomaly       1.12c

Hexam                        16.9c    Anomaly       1.34c

Mount Sorrel                18.1c    Anomaly       1.47c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.0c    Anomaly    1.4c

Peasedown St John  17.1c    Anomaly  -1.32c

Treviskey Redruth         17.2c      Anomaly  0.68c.

Al My 10 Stations are with a 5 year average. 

Mean of my 10 watched stations    17.78c          

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

 

Thanks ART - The crash has started! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Hungry Tiger
25 August 2018 14:29:24

We needed 18.2C or over for August in order to break 1976. We're now down to 17.8C


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
25 August 2018 14:39:45

Can only go down more in the last week......




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

jhall
25 August 2018 20:33:02

Met office Hadley       17.8c       Anomaly      1.9c    provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    17.72c     Anomaly      1.50c

Netweather                 18.34c     Anomaly      0.7c

Alton                         17.7c      Anomaly      0.7c

Canvey Island            19.3c      Anomaly      1.1c

Cheadle Hulme           17.4c     Anomaly       1.24c

Clevedon Weather       18.5c    Anomaly        1.15c

Darwen                       17.6c    Anomaly       1.12c

Hexam                        16.9c    Anomaly       1.34c

Mount Sorrel                18.1c    Anomaly       1.47c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.0c    Anomaly    1.4c

Peasedown St John  17.1c    Anomaly  -1.32c

Treviskey Redruth         17.2c      Anomaly  0.68c.

Al My 10 Stations are with a 5 year average. 

Mean of my 10 watched stations    17.78c          

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

There's something very odd about Peasedown St John. That anomaly seems way out of line in comparison to everywhere else.


Cranleigh, Surrey
ARTzeman
25 August 2018 20:57:00

[quote=jhall;1030043]

 

There's something very odd about Peasedown St John. That anomaly seems way out of line in comparison to everywhere else.]  

The anomaly is based on my 5 year average which is 18·32c for August....




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
26 August 2018 11:27:12

Here is the latest CET table since 1950. I have updated the colour coding to show months with a CET of 1.5C or more above or below the 1971-2000 mean (darker orange and blue respectively) as well as those at 0.5C above or below (light orange and blue).

Those months highlighted in red indicate the record CET for that month.

The period Apr - Jul 2018 is the first ever period since 1950 where we have had four consecutive months more than 1.5C above the mean. There are three instances with three consecutive months more than 1.5C above the mean but all were during the winter / early spring. They are Jan-Mar 1990, Dec 1988 - Feb 1989 and Feb - Apr 1961.

There is also one instance of four consecutive months more than 1.5C below the 1971-2000 mean which is Sep - Dec 1952.

Other interesting features are the low number of warmer than average months in Jul and Aug (and at the same time a high number of colder years for those months), the lack of colder June's, the number of very warm Octobers, and the number of very cold Decembers and March's. January and February have a significant number of both warm and cold months (and a similar number of each - although since 1988 there have only been 4 very cold months but 17 very warm months).

For the period 1950-1988 there were on average 2.9 months at 0.5C or more above average and 4.8 months below average. For the period since 1989 the equivalent figures are 5.6 and 2.3 months. So a very big difference.

7 of the 12 months (including all months from Jul - Dec) set their current CET record since 1994.

For the annual data I have used a range of 1C or more for the very warm, very cold category rather than 1.5C (which would just give zero returns).

August 2018 could be the first month this year that is within 0.5C of the mean. We need to finish at 16.8C or higher to be at 0.5C or more.

UserPostedImage

CET TABLE

ARTzeman
26 August 2018 11:27:53

Met Office Hadley      17.6c.      Anomaly      1.7c

Metcheck                   17.51c     Anomaly      1.28c

Netweather                18.13c     Anomaly      1.94c

Alton                         17.6c       Anomaly       -0.03c..

Darwen                      17.4.       Anomaly      0.92c

Hexam                       16.9c       Anomaly      1.34c

Peasedown St John    17.36c       Anomaly     -0.96c

Treviskey  Redruth    17.3c         Anomaly      0.78c.

 

Mean of my 10 stations   complete with my oddity  17.69c..                




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
26 August 2018 11:41:51

Thanks for the table GW. Lots to take in there.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Bertwhistle
26 August 2018 11:47:14

Here is the latest CET table since 1950. I have updated the colour coding to show months with a CET of 1.5C or more above or below the 1971-2000 mean (darker orange and blue respectively) as well as those at 0.5C above or below (light orange and blue).

Those months highlighted in red indicate the record CET for that month.

The period Apr - Jul 2018 is the first ever period since 1950 where we have had four consecutive months more than 1.5C above the mean. There are three instances with three consecutive months more than 1.5C above the mean but all were during the winter / early spring. They are Jan-Mar 1990, Dec 1988 - Feb 1989 and Feb - Apr 1961.

There is also one instance of four consecutive months more than 1.5C below the 1971-2000 mean which is Sep - Dec 1952.

Other interesting features are the low number of warmer than average months in Jul and Aug (and at the same time a high number of colder years for those months), the lack of colder June's, the number of very warm Octobers, and the number of very cold Decembers and March's. January and February have a significant number of both warm and cold months (and a similar number of each - although since 1988 there have only been 4 very cold months but 17 very warm months).

For the period 1950-1988 there were on average 2.9 months at 0.5C or more above average and 4.8 months below average. For the period since 1989 the equivalent figures are 5.6 and 2.3 months. So a very big difference.

7 of the 12 months (including all months from Jul - Dec) set their current CET record since 1994.

For the annual data I have used a range of 1C or more for the very warm, very cold category rather than 1.5C (which would just give zero returns).

August 2018 could be the first month this year that is within 0.5C of the mean. We need to finish at 16.8C or higher to be at 0.5C or more.

UserPostedImage

CET TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

A very interesting analysis. What's good about this coloured visual is how easily certain anomalous outcomes can be seen. For example, look how many reds there are in the last quarter century; and most are in the second half of the year.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

scillydave
26 August 2018 16:56:59
With regards to GW's excellent table, three things standout for me. Firstly the predominant warming trend in the last 20 years - especially in the spring months. Secondly how utterly appalling the years 1985 and 1986 are weather wise (if you are after warmth). Lastly that October, November and March all seem ripe for a CET record; especially October which has come within 0.2c of the record twice since it was set just 17 years ago.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Bertwhistle
27 August 2018 07:06:08

Also, until about 1987 there is clearly a fair balance between blue & orange, but since then, the latter is dominant


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

ARTzeman
27 August 2018 10:24:12

Met Office Hadley         17.4c.     Anomaly     1.6c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      17.40c    Anomaly     1.17c

Netweather                   17.95c    Anomaly     1.76

Alton                             17.5c     Anomaly     -0.3c       

Canvey Island                19.1c     Anomaly      0.9c 

Peasedown St John         17.20c   Anomaly      -1.12c

Treviskey Redruth           16.9c    Anomaly      0.38c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations   17.52c.       




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
28 August 2018 09:01:03

Very informative statistics there GW, thanks 

 

Back to this month's woes - and last night stayed cloudier than modelled across a large part of the UK, keeping the temps up widely - for example my low was in the 13s instead of 9s! - but I spotted Pershore still finding a clearer gap and dipping into the 8s so I'm not sure it's done much to help the CET stay up, unfortunately. Also, I'm very worried about what the nights of Wed-Thu and Thu-Fri might get up to in terms of really dipping low for the minimums - some more unexpected low cloud is needed... but only by night. Too much to ask for? Probably!

 

Meanwhile the potential 'trolling' by the weather has continued to recur in the model output, with the GFS 00z this morning giving me a CET estimate for the first 5 days in the high 18s. Yes, you read that right - warm enough that had it happened this week as originally anticipated, we'd have been heading upward, not downward!

In fact all the way out to 9th the estimate is still in the 18s.

 

So yeah. I don't think the CET tracking has ever depressed me so much before, but never mind, hopefully next month will be better behaved.

At least I look to be securing the all-time summer mean temp record locally; current projection has me finishing August at 17.99*C, placing the summer mean at 18.55*C, which comfortably beats out the 18.13*C set by 1995 and 18.12*C set by 1976.

Not bad given that this last month of the three looks to finish a bit short of average for sunshine amounts and with neither the max or min within the top 10% of years (but the mean does look to be... interesting quirk).

I know, off topic, but only briefly and it really does take the edge of the CET situation, so hopefully I can be forgiven for that foot-in-mouth.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

ARTzeman
28 August 2018 10:23:01

Met Office Hadley         17.3c        Anomaly      1.5c.   Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                      17.32c      Anomaly      1.10c

Netweather                   17.87c      Anomaly      1.68c

Canvey Island                19.1c       Anomaly       0.9c

Clevedon Weather          18.2c       Anomaly       0.85c

Hexam                          16.6c       Anomaly       1.04c

Peasedown St John      17.1c       Anomaly       -1.32c

Treviskey Redruth          16.9c.      Anomaly      0.38c.

 

Mean of 10 Stations  17.51c.                         




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gusty
28 August 2018 20:27:02

The steady decline since the 8th August is all too apparent as my average temperature shows. Today however we arrested the fall as a max of 21.6c and a min of 15.0c tipped yesterdays average of 18.00c to 18.01c today. 

 

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Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Global Warming
28 August 2018 20:30:05

Based on my calculations the CET has fallen below 17C today and now stands at 16.99C. The final number is still expected to be 16.70C. This has been unchanged for several days now.

Global Warming
28 August 2018 20:36:26

I will aim to post the September thread tomorrow evening. In the meantime you may start sending through your predictions via PM if you wish.

To whet your appetite for September, the Met Office contingency planners forecast was published today (although the issue date is 23/8):

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

For August there was a strong signal for above average temperatures and indeed that was the case for much of the month. But a cool final week or so means we will finish only slightly above average.

The warmer than average signal is again there for September, similar to August and for the whole of Autumn. For the next 3 months there is a 5% probability of temperatures falling into the coldest of the 5 categories and a 40% chance of it falling into the warmest category.

So a warm Autumn is looking the most likely probability. Hence we could continue the trend of very warm weather which started back in April.

Global Warming
28 August 2018 20:44:17

Latest GFS run is suggesting it could be fairly warm in the first half of September. These signals have been there for a while now and they continue to strengthen. Also very dry at first but possibly a little more unsettled during the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=4&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

Temperatures potentially reaching 20C+ even in the north of the CET area

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48970&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48970&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48970&model=gfs&var=4&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

The operational GFS this evening is somewhat warmer than the other models on 4-5 Sept but otherwise good agreement between the various op runs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=multi&var=2&run=0&lid=OP&bw=

Bertwhistle
29 August 2018 07:19:24

Latest GFS run is suggesting it could be fairly warm in the first half of September. These signals have been there for a while now and they continue to strengthen. Also very dry at first but possibly a little more unsettled during the second week.

 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Hints are still there this morning on the GFS ensemble postage stamps. In fact, some runs (eg P8) offer prolonged very warm or even hot weather. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

ARTzeman
29 August 2018 10:33:52

Met Office Hadley         17.2c.      Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                      17.24c.    Anomaly      1.01c.

Netweather                   17.8c.      Anomaly      1.61c

Darwen                         18.7c       Anomaly      2.22c

Peasedown St John         17.0c      Anomaly      -1.32c

Treviskey  Cornwall        16.8c.     Anomaly      0.28c.

 

Mean of my 10 stations    17.57c.

       




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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