The Weather Outlook

Gavin D
Advanced Member

24 July 2018 11:10:13

UK heatwave: Vintage year for British wine as temperatures soar

English winemakers are expecting a bumper year - and the curious weather is also causing blackberries to ripen two months early.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-heatwave-vintage-year-for-british-wine-as-temperatures-soar-11446976

Steve Murr
Advanced Member

24 July 2018 11:39:04

#952

Aperge showing 36c for Friday now - Met office have taken note via tweet...

Could we squeeze 37c that day (18/19c uppers )

The tinder dry ground must certainly adding at least 1c as were almost desert like here !

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

24 July 2018 13:42:12

#953

It depends on the circumstances and this advice is better suited for hot climates and properly insulated buildings (which don't allow the internal temperature to be affected too much from the external temp).

If it's really hot with no wind, then this advice could make sense during the day.

What you are supposed to do anyway is to block the radiation, so drawing the curtains but leaving the windows open makes more sense to me.

Also if you have loft windows, then that's the best way to ventilate the house with the chimney effect.

Originally Posted by: xioni2

Agree. The closing windows only works with a modern well insulated building

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gavin D
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:09:35

#954

UK weather forecast SHOCK: HUGE African plume to ignite VIOLENT thunderstorms in DAYS

A FLAMING surge of heat from Africa and the Continent will ignite violent thunderstorms before Britain swelters in the hottest July day ever recorded.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/993731/UK-Weather-forecast-hot-weather-hottest-July-2018-latest-Met-Office-news-update

UK WEATHER FORECAST: Britain roads to MELT as ground temps hit 42C in SCORCHING 48 HOURS

UK weather latest: BLAZING heat threatens to melt Britain’s roads with ground temperatures set to hit a blistering 42C (108F) over the next few days in a scorching 48 hours.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/993113/UK-weather-forecast-hot-heatwave-July-2018-Met-Office-BBC-weather-forecast-this-week?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain

Desert Britain to swelter on HOTTEST EVER July day this Friday with 36C forecast

THE UK's heatwave shows no signs of letting up for the next couple of days, with warnings Friday could see the hottest July temperatures ever recorded.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/718746/weather-uk-heatwave-met-office-thunderstorms-record-temperature-july

andy-manc
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:19:47

#955

Daily Express are in their element. They must sit round and all have a vote on the most dramatic headlines they can think of

Arcus
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:37:48

#956

UK WEATHER FORECAST: Britain roads to MELT as ground temps hit 42C in SCORCHING 48 HOURS

UK weather latest: BLAZING heat threatens to melt Britain’s roads with ground temperatures set to hit a blistering 42C (108F) over the next few days in a scorching 48 hours.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

I might be wrong, but I didn't think that a road surface temperature of 42c was anything out of the ordinary in sunny weather - it could be achieved easily with air temperatures of less than 25c?

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

andy-manc
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:48:11

#957

I might be wrong, but I didn't think that a road surface temperature of 42c was anything out of the ordinary in sunny weather - it could be achieved easily with air temperatures of less than 25c?

Originally Posted by: Arcus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23315384

This article I've found from 2013 says that roads regularly reach 50C in summer. They give an example at the time of writing of a road in Earlston in Scotland, having a temperature of 49.2C whilst the air temperature was just 21.2C.

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:54:19

#958

On Newsnight last night, they entertained the chief scientific officer from the Met Office. He was being asked about the current heat wave of course and AGW. Emily Maitlis asked him about 1976 and he said something interesting on that score - apparently, current north Atlantic SST anomalies are a very good match for 1976 and the Met Office is investigating the correlation and its significance.

New world order coming.

David M Porter
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 08:59:49

#959

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

I wonder if they are also a good match for the Atlantic SST anomalies during the summer of 1995. I can't comment on 1976 as I wasn't around then, but I do remember that as the long, hot summer of 1995 went on, the more it was compared by some sections of the press to the summer of 1976.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

TimS
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 09:02:58

#960

I was hoping they’d say it was a good match for 1975...

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

Gavin P
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 10:02:31

#961

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

No there is no similarity between SST's in Summer's 1976 and 1995.

I did a section about this in a video a couple of weeks ago:

Check it out from around 13:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3gzXMPy9pU

Edited by user 25 July 2018 10:04:08 | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gavin D
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 11:25:32

#962

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 8 Aug 2018:

Cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds will affect the northwest on Monday, this clearing with showers possibly following. Tuesday will be bright with sunny spells and lighter winds, but some showers are likely in the northwest. The first few days of August are expected to be mainly dry and fine across the UK but there is a risk of breezier weather with some rain in the northwest at times. Looking further ahead a good deal of fine weather is expected across many areas, although occasional heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm are possible. Temperatures will be around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Aug 2018 to Thursday 23 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Caz
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 12:13:47

#963

I was hoping they’d say it was a good match for 1975...

Originally Posted by: TimS

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

wingman
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 12:41:50

#964

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 8 Aug 2018:

Cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds will affect the northwest on Monday, this clearing with showers possibly following. Tuesday will be bright with sunny spells and lighter winds, but some showers are likely in the northwest. The first few days of August are expected to be mainly dry and fine across the UK but there is a risk of breezier weather with some rain in the northwest at times. Looking further ahead a good deal of fine weather is expected across many areas, although occasional heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm are possible. Temperatures will be around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Aug 2018 to Thursday 23 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Slightly strange update (at least to me), explicit mention of the North West twice in the first paragraph, but nothing of their expectations for the rest of the country for Monday/Tuesday. Do we assume more of the same (ie, hot, dry etc)?

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

25 July 2018 14:15:13

#965

Possibility of an all time record this Friday is being talked up by reputable sources. Probably because the latest NWP is spinning things up a tad more and slowing down the eastwards push. Very exciting times.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

KevBrads1
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 16:05:10

#966

Work this out.

Tomasz Schafernaker mentions "welcome" thunderstorms, how can he say that and then possibly give a weather warning on them? It's a contradiction.

Thunderstorms are not actually welcome really because you have torrential rain falling on rock hard surfaces and the water runs off causing flash flooding. They are not the best for drought relief.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

xioni2
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 16:06:23

#967

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

I am quite surprised at this as I think it's very unlikely.

andy-manc
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 16:16:13

#968

Work this out.

Tomasz Schafernaker mentions "welcome" thunderstorms, how can he say that and then possibly give a weather warning on them? It's a contradiction.

Thunderstorms are not actually welcome really because you have torrential rain falling on rock hard surfaces and the water runs off causing flash flooding. They are not the best for drought relief.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

True although I do hope we get a good one. I'd rather the whole thing miss us completely which seems unlikely so from the options of heavy rain and no thunder and heavy rain with thunder and lightning, I'd choose the latter this time because it has been a while. Won't happen though. I'm prepared for just rain as always whilst watching videos of the lightning elsewhere on the news

Rob K
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 16:28:18

#969

I am quite surprised at this as I think it's very unlikely.

Originally Posted by: xioni2

Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

This chart only gave 36.4C max.

1 July 2015 had a 20C plume reaching almost up to Scotland (this is midnight after the hottest day)

I imagine this is down to pressure/heights being lower so less difference between 850mb and surface level?

Edited by user 25 July 2018 16:53:05 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gavin D
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 20:14:40

#970

Next week

Fresher at first
Some rain - mostly in the NW
Turning hot again in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44961480

Arcus
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 20:38:34

#971

Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

This chart only gave 36.4C max.

1 July 2015 had a 20C plume reaching almost up to Scotland (this is midnight after the hottest day)

I imagine this is down to pressure/heights being lower so less difference between 850mb and surface level?

Originally Posted by: Rob K

It's very simple - it's down to whether certain locations get to see the sun or partial clouds. 850s tell only half the story. The 2003 record was under very milky skies IIRC.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

xioni2
Advanced Member

25 July 2018 21:32:03

#972

Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

I haven't really looked properly, but the partial thickness is quite high (the 1000-850mb layer is very warm) and obviously we now have the very dry ground, plus there will be a downwind effect from the hills and London. But even with perfect conditions I can't see it going higher than 37C, and in fact a localised 36C would be my forecast.