The Weather Outlook

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Super Cell
19 July 2018 14:16:13

 

The average daytime max is 21C for Leeds - which is lukewarm itself - so 19C is certainly not warm to me, however close it might be to the average, and a 19C evening after a 28C day feels anything other than warm, unless you are in direct sunlight with no wind.

That's just me though. Probably just a softie. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

You do seems to be a Leeds version of our friend from Aberdeen. If I didn't live in nearly the same area as you I'd be thinking it was pretty poor. But as I do I confirm it hasn't been. Today is fairly sunny, but in any other summer would be one of the better days. 25C with no wind is lovely.

Two nights ago was the worst of the year. So hot indoors. There was a bit of a cool down but if you need to wear a 'light jacket' you're over 65!

There has been nothing like this in all the time I've lived in Leeds (since 2000) and as such any complaints have to be set against high sunshine levels, above average temperatures and rainfall that hasn't even tested some new guttering I put in in May. Tow thirty minute showers in all that time  and warm enough for evening barbecues to carry on.

Expecting more in Leeds is a bit pointless. 21C daytime max and 13C night time low is the average for a reason!

 


Farnley/Pudsey Leeds

40m asl

LeedsLad123
19 July 2018 14:51:24

 

You do seems to be a Leeds version of our friend from Aberdeen. If I didn't live in nearly the same area as you I'd be thinking it was pretty poor. But as I do I confirm it hasn't been. Today is fairly sunny, but in any other summer would be one of the better days. 25C with no wind is lovely.

Two nights ago was the worst of the year. So hot indoors. There was a bit of a cool down but if you need to wear a 'light jacket' you're over 65!

There has been nothing like this in all the time I've lived in Leeds (since 2000) and as such any complaints have to be set against high sunshine levels, above average temperatures and rainfall that hasn't even tested some new guttering I put in in May. Tow thirty minute showers in all that time  and warm enough for evening barbecues to carry on.

Expecting more in Leeds is a bit pointless. 21C daytime max and 13C night time low is the average for a reason!

 

Originally Posted by: Super Cell 

That's fighting talk..

In any case, the summer has been great thus far, just a few minor niggles. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Tim A
19 July 2018 21:41:44
Just browsing tbe Met Office data for Bradford (our nearest Met Office site, well this part of Leeds anyway) , the stats are exceptional.

Average June high of 20.6c , the same as 1976. Cant see any higher in recent times. (Havent browsed the full 100 plus years).

Preceeded by a May with an average high of 18.6c, well above average and cant see anything close to it.

Only 30mm rain in the entire two months.

Now we are in a very warm and dry July too. Close to the record July max of 24.6c in 2006 surely. (Running at 23.8c in Bingley at 262m, not got Bradford stats yet)

So when you put them all together truely exceptional and probably wont be seen for a long time.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

eddied
20 July 2018 07:39:13

Must admit a bit of rain would be good at this point, even if slightly offends my statistical weather geek side. Our cool day on Tuesday was anyway 25C in the end and we're right back up to 27C and 29C the last two days again. Strange how that feels normal now.

Quite a lot of cloud around this morning though so despite an original forecast of 29C today, a cooler 26C would be ok, and I wouldn't even say no to a good downpour. Despite being squeezed from both the NW and from France though it still looks like we could end up bone dry in the middle again.


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23

Days snow falling: 4

Days snow on ground:8

Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th

Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th

Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

The Beast from the East
20 July 2018 08:32:23

Despite being squeezed from both the NW and from France though it still looks like we could end up bone dry in the middle again.

Originally Posted by: eddied 

Yes, today would ruin any chance of breaking the drought record. We need the rain though


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

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Rob K
20 July 2018 08:45:02

Despite being squeezed from both the NW and from France though it still looks like we could end up bone dry in the middle again.

Originally Posted by: eddied 

Yes this is the Arpege precip accumulation chart and it shows zero down through this area, with showers skirting to the west and east. We shall see!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brendon Hills Bandit
20 July 2018 13:26:50
I would say I have been slightly dissapointed with this warmwave/heatwave this summer. Why? Because it has never really got 'properly' hot.

By 'properly' hot I mean the magic 90 Fahrenheit or thereabouts. 90 F = 32.25C

I expect that other members might agree that 90F is 'Proper', the mark that has to be reached to really classify it as a heatwave.

However on netweather someone was saying that 30C or higher is actually pretty rare in this country, perhaps rarer than I and other weather enthusiasts with a perverse love of extremes, might think.

It's a bit like in winter, thinking that there have to be ice days to make a cold spell 'proper', when the reality is that ice days are rare in southern England, even in the days before AGW.

Summer 1976 did have a consecutive run of 15 days or so, when the temp somewhere was 90F or higher, but I think that is actually a very very rare occurrence, perhaps once every 200 years or so.


220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2018 13:55:40

I would say I have been slightly dissapointed with this warmwave/heatwave this summer. Why? Because it has never really got 'properly' hot.
By 'properly' hot I mean the magic 90 Fahrenheit or thereabouts. 90 F = 32.25C
I expect that other members might agree that 90F is 'Proper', the mark that has to be reached to really classify it as a heatwave.
However on netweather someone was saying that 30C or higher is actually pretty rare in this country, perhaps rarer than I and other weather enthusiasts with a perverse love of extremes, might think.
It's a bit like in winter, thinking that there have to be ice days to make a cold spell 'proper', when the reality is that ice days are rare in southern England, even in the days before AGW.
Summer 1976 did have a consecutive run of 15 days or so, when the temp somewhere was 90F or higher, but I think that is actually a very very rare occurrence, perhaps once every 200 years or so.

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 

i know what you mean, and up to now we’ve not really had anything approaching a plume. But: it’s only half way through summer, and plumes often end in rain unless they’re very quickly replaced and reloaded.

This is one reason 2018 is more like 1995 than 76. A slow burner. By late July 1995 we’d had one in situ heatwave in late June, extremely similar to what happened this year, with 30 in the Scottish highlands and a max of 33C in Worcestershire, similar to the 33C in Porthmadog. In early August an Easterly set up gave us 35C. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that somewhere will hit 34 or 35 in the next fortnight. Some models show it. At the very least I would anticipate one or two 32Cs around.

 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
20 July 2018 14:26:14

I would say I have been slightly dissapointed with this warmwave/heatwave this summer. Why? Because it has never really got 'properly' hot.
By 'properly' hot I mean the magic 90 Fahrenheit or thereabouts. 90 F = 32.25C
I expect that other members might agree that 90F is 'Proper', the mark that has to be reached to really classify it as a heatwave.
However on netweather someone was saying that 30C or higher is actually pretty rare in this country, perhaps rarer than I and other weather enthusiasts with a perverse love of extremes, might think.
It's a bit like in winter, thinking that there have to be ice days to make a cold spell 'proper', when the reality is that ice days are rare in southern England, even in the days before AGW.
Summer 1976 did have a consecutive run of 15 days or so, when the temp somewhere was 90F or higher, but I think that is actually a very very rare occurrence, perhaps once every 200 years or so.

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 

Sorry to go OT - I think this summer has been exceptional mainly due to the huge number of sunny days and the absence of rain.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Brendon Hills Bandit
20 July 2018 18:00:56
Oh yes I would agree it has been a lovely summer, it's just when you quantify it in terms of the highest temperatures, it's never quite gone "full throttle". However still time for that to happen I guess.
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
LeedsLad123
20 July 2018 18:07:53
We haven't even reached 30C here - can't think of any good summer where we didn't, and we even reach it in poor summers sometimes (i.e 2011).
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Tim A
20 July 2018 18:31:10

We haven't even reached 30C here - can't think of any good summer where we didn't, and we even reach it in poor summers sometimes (i.e 2011).

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

True(although i wouldnt expect 30c at my altitude) but the May/June and July average max's are all exceptional/close to record breaking/record breaking. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Saint Snow
20 July 2018 18:44:29

I'd be more than happy if the max temp over the summer was 26c - as long as everyday throughout July & Aug reached that figure and it was dry, sunny and settled throughout


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

22 July 2018 19:03:26

Very close to 30C today. We may find ultimately that one of the manual stations hit 30C.

Highest from the SYNOP stations was Pershore with 29.8C.

Rob K
22 July 2018 20:29:20

Very close to 30C today. We may find ultimately that one of the manual stations hit 30C.

Highest from the SYNOP stations was Pershore with 29.8C.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Good for the CET then (although I gather that isn't the CET station, which is Pershore College?)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2018 20:41:50

Good for the CET then (although I gather that isn't the CET station, which is Pershore College?)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Hopefully Pershore college has a tarmac car park next to the weather station.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
superteacher
22 July 2018 21:25:48

 

Hopefully Pershore college has a tarmac car park next to the weather station.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Just park your car next to it with the engine running!

23 July 2018 05:54:58

A very warm night. Temperature at Heathrow hovering around 19.5C all night.

By 0600 the temperature at St James Park was already back up to nearly 21C.

Later in the week ARPEGE has temperatures holding up above 21C quite widely overnight in the SE.

Gavin D
23 July 2018 08:22:29

Level 3 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south - Yorkshire, Humber & the SW remain on L2 whilst NW & NE England remain clear on level 1

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 09:03 on Mon 23 Jul 2018

There is a 90 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

On Monday, hot and humid air will lie over the east and southeast of England, with cloud and outbreaks of rain across northern England. The cloud and rain will gradually break up and turn showery in the north, with some of these heavy and thundery. South of the rain, long spells of sunshine, will develop with temperatures generally ranging from very warm in West and East Midlands, to hot and humid, locally very hot in east and southeastern areas. Away from northern England, dry and sunny weather should dominate through the week, but interspersed with heavy showers in afternoon and evening periods. Temperatures will be very warm or hot, locally very hot in the east. Thresholds could be breached in places from Monday onwards, with very warm and muggy overnight conditions. Yorkshire and Humber and southwest England will also see temperatures rise through the week, but with cloud and outbreaks of rain affecting the north and west, there is a lower risk of thresholds being reached. There is a chance that Alerts will need to be downgraded and/or extended for the end of the week, however confidence is currently low and this will be reviewed through the week.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Ally Pally Snowman
23 July 2018 08:41:04

Already 27c in the east we should beat 33.0c today for the hottest day of the year.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
23 July 2018 08:54:42

Skies more or less cloudless here this morning. The blowtorch was primed at the crack of dawn and temperatures are rocketing. This really is the Mediterranean melt! 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

superteacher
23 July 2018 08:59:24

Skies more or less cloudless here this morning. The blowtorch was primed at the crack of dawn and temperatures are rocketing. This really is the Mediterranean melt! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Would you expect any cloud infill today Brian?

Bolty
23 July 2018 09:01:07
Going to be a warm one today, even if it is a bit on the cloudy side. Already pretty stuffy at this time.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Brian Gaze
23 July 2018 09:02:59

 

Would you expect any cloud infill today Brian?

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Yes, I would expect there to be some. Arome is worth a look:  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=na&charthour=16&chartname=lc&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Low%20cloud

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Solar Cycles
23 July 2018 09:06:17
Clouds will be the issue IMBY this coming week so temps should stay around the 22-24c mark for much of the week.

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