Would be good to land an 18C+ month. I would hope that’s possible even if the weather is a bit meh for the next 2 weeks. It would keep us ahead of 1995 (but we would then need an 18C+ August to get close to matching the whole summer, which would be a push).

It’s perhaps a pity the May stats aren’t included in summer as well although we did have some very cool nights that pegged it back this year. How did the May 1995 CET compare with this year?

Met Office Hadley     19.6c.      Anomaly     3.7c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                  19.27c     Anomaly     2.81c

Netweather               19.68c    Anomaly      3.19c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.6c    Anomaly    0.6c

Peasedown St John  22.78c   Anomaly    4.29c.

Mean of 10 stations 20.10c.          

An impressive figure for almost half way through the month.

We’ve already had ten weeks of better weather than we get in an average summer!  Impressive!   

May 1995 recorded a CET mean figure of 11.6C, a difference of 1.6C from the 2018 figure of 13.2C. 

Met Office Hadley         19.6c.   Anomaly   3.7c

Metcheck                      19.37    Anomaly   2.91c

Netweather                   19.71c  Anomaly   3.22c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.8c     Anomaly   0.8c

Mean of 10 Watched Stations 20.15c

Is there any data for daytime/night CET?

It seems that would be far more descriptive of a months weather.

Looks like Hadley may be reversing some of its warm bias the last couple of days.

To beat 18.0C, and assuming we’re actually at 19.3 not 19.6, we need the rest of the month to average 16.9. Should be easily doable especially after today and tomorrow, unless things really turn bad. That would be first 18C month since 2013.

I still think we can get above, or very near the 19c mark.  

Well the GFS 12z, the best fit for the Nino-like background I've seen since the uncertain period began, is good for a final CET between 19.2 and 19.8*C depending on just how much it's underestimating the maximums (with 19.2*C being if it wasn't doing so at all... which is unlikely!).

It may not stay as dry as the first half of the summer (though this run is startlingly dry for England until 30th), but the race for a record-hot month is certainly still on.

For my location, the raw numbers give a record-high overall mean of 20.4*C, with a value as high as 20.9*C feasible given typical underestimations. A truly amazing prospect!

Yes see this link for maximums and minimums

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/index.html

In April the minimum anomaly was higher than the maximum. But since then the daytime anomalies have been much higher. The data in the link above compares to the 1961-1990 mean so the anomaly looks bigger compared to using the 1981-2010 mean. But the daytime maximum anomalies are huge, especially this month, which explains why late spring and summer has felt so good this year. The average maximum temperature for the period May to July will almost certainly be one of if not the highest on record. 

EDIT

Just checking the numbers and if the July CET finishes at 19.0C the combined CET for May to July will be 16.12C so it would be a record.

2006 was 15.97C and 1976 15.93C for the same period.

My latest calculations suggest a CET of 18.81C by the 29th. As ever that is likely to be slightly understated due to the maximums being too low. So as it has for a while now, the CET looks likely to get close to 19C and quite possibly slightly above. But I still think a record breaker is unlikely because of the somewhat cooler week this coming week. We will really have to climb well into the 30’s next week to have any chance of the record. Not out of the question yet but I think we will fall quite a bit short.

Can’t post any updated charts for the next week or so as I am on holiday.

Thanks for that excellent informative post Simon.

Thanks for that excellent informative post James.

Gavin, I see you and I have both gone for 18.5c but I think James and Simon will be closer with their predictions of 19c and 18.8c respectively.   I won‘t hold it against them though!  

I still think the rest of the month is in the balance and wouldn’t be surprised if we end up in the low 18s. Lower than that would require a major shift although there is still time for that.

Low 18s would in any case be a remarkably warm month. I’m more interested in the rainfall total though - 1995 (driest) and 1976 (second driest) were both wetter than 2018 up to today.

it would take a fairly average second half of the month for the CET to end up around 18, and thee is nothing indicating that at the moment. If anything, it’s the opposite.

Met office Hadley       19.6c        Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 15th.  Same figure   the last  3 days.

Metcheck                   19.48c      Anomaly     3.02c

Netweather                19.79c      Anomaly     3.3c

Alton                         19.9c        Anomaly     1.6c

Mount Sorrel              19.8c        Anomaly     2.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse  19.9c     Anomaly   0.9c

Peasedown St John 21.91c     Anomaly   3.37c

Mean of My Watched  10 Station  20.10c.    

Completely agree. Despite the more unsettled nature of the weather indicated in the models, it is also suggested to stay warm or very warm. The key will also be warmer nights that may occur in the suggested upcoming weather.

The question really is whether the CET figure will approach 19.0C, although I would agree it is more doubtful if that figure will be exceeded.

It might go up a tad tomorrow though because last night’s minima were a little higher than of late which, added to yesterday’s high, should give a greater average.  But, that’s assuming their official stations had similar temperatures to my back yard!