The Weather Outlook

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Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 06:12:42

 

 

suprised 1990 isnt there as august 3rd saw a temprature record tumble and I recall it being a pretty decent summer. 

  http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/3/newsid_2527000/2527311.stm

Originally Posted by: Jake 

Ok I just recall July being decent and the heat at the start of August, well down south anyways. 

 


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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 07:43:23

 

Ok I just recall July being decent and the heat at the start of August, well down south anyways. 

 

Originally Posted by: Jake 

I think this is where some disagreement comes from. Some in the South have generally had better summers than the North but this year the heat and sunshine is further North and the Southerners can’t understand what the fuss is about!  

Here in the middle, in North Notts, during the past two months we’ve only had one day of measurable rain at the end of May, 6 spots of rain on about four occasions and one day when I heard distant thunder.  It’s been over 20c almost every day, mostly between 23 and 26c, with just a few days topping that, although it’s been cooler at night and on three occasions in May, we came close to a frost.  Most notable is the amount of sunshine we’re getting.  We’ve had many mornings like today that start (for me about 4.30am) with thin cloud but it’s burnt away just after sunrise.

For me, the weather is just perfect!  Long may it last. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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johncs2016
06 July 2018 08:12:57
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm getting to the stage now where it wouldn't bother me too much if we were to soon go into a major deterioration in the weather pattern, as long as that was only on a temporary basis. Even really decent summers after all, have at least one spell within them where the weather isn't so great (just in the same way that even our most cold and severe winters will still have at least one brief mild spell within them).

That doesn't mean that I actually want the weather to deteriorate, far from it. Nevertheless, we have been experiencing virtually constant good weather since before this summer even started and the UK as a whole, is just now renowned for getting good weather all the time on such a constant basis as is what is happening just now. With that in mind, it is important to have a sens of realism here because if the weather was to go downhill for a while, I still don't think that we can have any complaints about that, given how good our weather has been until now.

Furthermore, the farmers and growers would be getting at least some of their badly needed rainfall if that happened, so this would be a win-win scenario for everyone if that ended up happening. Then if there was a quick return to high pressure after that, this would still end up going down as a decent summer anyway, where most people would probably have forgetten over time, that we even had that temporary breakdown in the meantime.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Sharp Green Fox
06 July 2018 08:55:38

 

 

suprised 1990 isnt there as august 3rd saw a temprature record tumble and I recall it being a pretty decent summer. 

  http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/3/newsid_2527000/2527311.stm

Originally Posted by: Jake 

The record was broken on August 2nd in Worcester that year, I remember because I was in Worcester that day. The next day it was broken again by Gloucester. That record stayed until August 2003, I think.

1990 was a good summer, but if my memory is correct it was one good week followed by one ordinary week, repeatedly. This may explain why it doesn't appear in Kev's best summer list.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 09:12:25

 The record was broken on August 2nd in Worcester that year, I remember because I was in Worcester that day. The next day it was broken again by Gloucester. That record stayed until August 2003, I think.

1990 was a good summer, but if my memory is correct it was one good week followed by one ordinary week, repeatedly. This may explain why it doesn't appear in Kev's best summer list.

Originally Posted by: Sharp Green Fox 

Possibly because the indices take into account overall temperature and sunshine for the three summer months in total. And possibly because the weather isn’t consistently widespread from North to South and Kev’s list is for Manchester. 

As per my previous post, we naturally tend to think IMBY and forget that the weather can be very different in different areas.  Two people can argue one year was better than the other and they’d both be right if they lived miles apart. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 10:12:02

I think this is where some disagreement comes from. Some in the South have generally had better summers than the North but this year the heat and sunshine is further North and the Southerners can’t understand what the fuss is about!  

Here in the middle, in North Notts, during the past two months we’ve only had one day of measurable rain at the end of May, 6 spots of rain on about four occasions and one day when I heard distant thunder.  It’s been over 20c almost every day, mostly between 23 and 26c, with just a few days topping that, although it’s been cooler at night and on three occasions in May, we came close to a frost.  Most notable is the amount of sunshine we’re getting.  We’ve had many mornings like today that start (for me about 4.30am) with thin cloud but it’s burnt away just after sunrise.

For me, the weather is just perfect!  Long may it last. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Yeah my memory is fuzzy I recal 1989 being great defo as I think the that free newspaper (the colour one) did a articel about how many days above 25C we had had. I just recall being surprised that 1990 was pretty ok, buy like you say it may have been a N/S thing! JUne wasnt great but July was good. I went Youth hostelling in augst in the Lake District and it was very wet. I guess its all in context because apparently 1975 was a good summer but as 1976 was so great people dont remember it (Ithink thats where I got the idea that good summers come in pairs lol) like 1995 and 1996 or was it 1994 and 1995? Or perhaps that was wishful thinking that they did come in pairs.

But this summer is turning out to be decent well I would prefer the heat we had last week to what we have this week, amazing what a difference it makes coming from the east opposed to the south!


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Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 10:13:56

 

The record was broken on August 2nd in Worcester that year, I remember because I was in Worcester that day. The next day it was broken again by Gloucester. That record stayed until August 2003, I think.

1990 was a good summer, but if my memory is correct it was one good week followed by one ordinary week, repeatedly. This may explain why it doesn't appear in Kev's best summer list.

Originally Posted by: Sharp Green Fox 

Ok my memory is dodgy then lol! I recall the humdinger of a storm we had though that day, no rain just thunder and ligtning


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Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 July 2018 14:14:01

With the jet stream in such a northerly position, Iceland seems to be getting its own spring and summer 2012 at the moment, whilst we sit under warmth, dry and blue skies.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1015234939351191553


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

KevBrads1
06 July 2018 14:27:42

Driest summer months on record for England and Wales (mm)

 4.3 June 1925

 8.2 July 1825

 9.1 July 1800, August 1995 

 10.3 June 1921

 12.4 June 1826

 14.4 August 1947

 15.0 August 1940 

 15.8    June 2018

 16.5 June 1868

 17.8 June 1962

 18.1 June 1949 

 18.7 June 1794, June 1976

  19.4  June 1923

 

9th driest summer month ever recorded for England and Wales


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 15:02:37

Yesterday I was saying that the cloud we had for an hour late afternoon was a rare thing of late, yet we have cloud forming again now, just as it did yesterday.  It’s still sunny at the moment and 29.1c and it feels oppressive again. 

I’ve just been watching two hang gliders circling above our house under a cloud. One has obviously found a thermal and ascended but the other didn’t and has landed on the park.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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KevBrads1
06 July 2018 16:40:09
Question is becoming now the driest first half to summer since.....?
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

KevBrads1
07 July 2018 19:34:33

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267

2018 266 (up to 6th July)


1989 262
2013 260

The curse of "8" summer has been broken regardless what happens to the second half of summer. We are now 40% through the meteorological summer.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2018 19:48:05

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267

2018 266 (up to 6th July)


1989 262
2013 260

The curse of "8" summer has been broken regardless what happens to the second half of summer. We are now 40% through the meteorological summer.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

How is this actually calculated? It's obviously cumulative but how?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

David M Porter
07 July 2018 19:48:57

 

 

Yeah my memory is fuzzy I recal 1989 being great defo as I think the that free newspaper (the colour one) did a articel about how many days above 25C we had had. I just recall being surprised that 1990 was pretty ok, buy like you say it may have been a N/S thing! JUne wasnt great but July was good. I went Youth hostelling in augst in the Lake District and it was very wet. I guess its all in context because apparently 1975 was a good summer but as 1976 was so great people dont remember it (Ithink thats where I got the idea that good summers come in pairs lol) like 1995 and 1996 or was it 1994 and 1995? Or perhaps that was wishful thinking that they did come in pairs.

But this summer is turning out to be decent well I would prefer the heat we had last week to what we have this week, amazing what a difference it makes coming from the east opposed to the south!

Originally Posted by: Jake 

All of the summers from 1994 to 1996 were pretty decent here, but 1995 really was the stand-out one.

In fact, as far as my own area was concerned, the whole period from 1989 up to and including 1997 wasn't bad for summer weather here. Even those summers which over the piece were never really spectacular such as 1991, 1992 and 1993, saw some warm and dry spells at some point, whether it was early on or late in the season.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

KevBrads1
07 July 2018 19:54:20

 

How is this actually calculated? It's obviously cumulative but how?

Originally Posted by: Col 

10 x mean maximum temperature + (total sunshine hours/67 - rain days/8)

So it can fall by cooler, wetter, cloudier weather occurring. 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2018 21:07:09

 

10 x mean maximum temperature + (total sunshine hours/67 - rain days/8)

So it can fall by cooler, wetter, cloudier weather occurring. 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

OK thanks. I understand now. Is this an 'official' way of measuring a summer index or something you have devised yourself?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

KevBrads1
07 July 2018 22:01:30

 

OK thanks. I understand now. Is this an 'official' way of measuring a summer index or something you have devised yourself?

Originally Posted by: Col 

It was devised 30 or so years ago.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

KevBrads1
08 July 2018 10:04:03

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271

2018 270 (up to 7th July)


1959 269
1975 268
1949 267

If say starting from today, there was zero hours sunshine for the rest of the summer, rain was measured every day and the mean maximum for the period was just 15C, the index was turn out in the end to be 162

Obviously, that is not going happen as 55 days with zero sunshine is nigh on improbable. 

 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 10:21:21

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271

2018 270 (up to 7th July)


1959 269
1975 268
1949 267

If say starting from today, there was zero hours sunshine for the rest of the summer, rain was measured every day and the mean maximum for the period was just 15C, the index was turn out in the end to be 162

Obviously, that is not going happen as 55 days with zero sunshine is nigh on improbable. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Aberdeen Richard might beg to differ :)


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Hungry Tiger
08 July 2018 10:30:29

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267

2018 266 (up to 6th July)


1989 262
2013 260

The curse of "8" summer has been broken regardless what happens to the second half of summer. We are now 40% through the meteorological summer.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

This summer so far is mounting up very well in the summer index. I wonder if it will pass 300 and keep going.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Phil 2804
08 July 2018 18:29:36
Just a note since mid May Aberdeen Airport has recorded 14 days with 14 or more hours of sunshine, 2013 and 2006 recorded just one such day each for the entire “summer” period and 2006 broke the heat record for Aberdeen. Where certain posters got the “permacast” hell notion from I don’t know.

So my totally unscientific car dash display recorded 39c earlier this Afternoon (Slough) wonder if anyone can beat that?

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 18:33:18

Just a note since mid May Aberdeen Airport has recorded 14 days with 14 or more hours of sunshine, 2013 and 2006 recorded just one such day each for the entire “summer” period and 2006 broke the heat record for Aberdeen. Where certain posters got the “permacast” hell notion from I don’t know.

So my totally unscientific car dash display recorded 39c earlier this Afternoon (Slough) wonder if anyone can beat that?

Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 

Hottest so far was 36C this morning when I got in to go to the tip. Settled down to 29C. 

Hottest dash temp anywhere was 48C in car parked in full sun in Provence a few years ago. Actual temp was about 37C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
08 July 2018 18:39:52

 

Hottest so far was 36C this morning when I got in to go to the tip. Settled down to 29C. 

Hottest dash temp anywhere was 48C in car parked in full sun in Provence a few years ago. Actual temp was about 37C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

43C the highest for my car temps in August 2003.  My dad used the car around 3-4pm and recorded 39-40C on the roads so I know some areas had reached 39C and 40C temps before but due to lack of weather station so it hard to know.  My ice warner gadget from Cyprus recorded 38.6C here for few seconds on 10th August 2003 as this record every second.  You need a thermometer that record every second to pick up the hottest or coldest air otherwise those that record every 30 or 1 minute miss out the highest temps recording.  My old WS2500 was bad as it record every 1 and half minute.

johncs2016
09 July 2018 21:51:42
This month is proving so far, to be a month where our weather refuses to go downhill and the same has been true of this summer as a whole up until now. This was demonstrated yet again today as after a completely dull and overcast morning and even with a cloudier end to today, we still managed to get a total of 7.5 hours of sunshine at Edinburgh Gogarbank.

That actually makes today, the second dullest day of this month, and even the dullest day of this month so far at the beginning of the month, still resulted in 6.8 hours of sunshine of being recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank on that day. That is quite a remarkable statistic for here in Scotland where we're not exactly renowned for getting a lot of sunshine at any time of the year, even with the length of daylight increasing at this time of year, the further north that you go.

As a result of today's sunshine totals, a total of over 100 hours of sunshine has already been recorded for this month so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank (the exact total for this month at the end of today was 100.8 hours of sunshine) and we're not even a third of the way through the month yet. I'm not sure what the all-time record is for the sunniest July on record at Edinburgh Gogarbank, but we surely can't end up being all that far away from that if this keeps up for the rest of this month.

I can also further back that up by confirming that the sunniest July on record at the botanic gardens according to their own website was in 1989 when a total of 263.1 hours of sunshine was recorded in July of that year as the this year's figure at Edinburgh Gogarbank will easily beat that if this carries on for the rest of this month. As far the botanic gardens in Edinburgh itself, I don't have all of the latest data from there but since 87.8 hours of sunshine were recorded there for this month up until the end of Saturday, it appears to be a similar story there.

All in all, this just shows how remarkable this month is turning out to be, and its role in showing us how remarkable a summer this is turning out to be.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 July 2018 14:42:03

Even if this summer deteriorates in the second half, I think this summer will now be deemed as the best summer of this decade to many people (unless of course 2019 somehow managed to pull something really special out of the bag).

At the moment, I think we can safely say that this has been the best summer since 2006, maybe even 1995?


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

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