Good grief ecm

anom 850 168

Comedy value only:

Yep, it has - but as I mentioned these extreme values often get moderated nearer the time as GFS rolls forward. It's a long way off, but other models seem to be looking at the warm humid feed setting in for the BH weekend on the 12zs at least. However I wouldn't be surprised to see the flow moderated in subsequent runs. All very interesting though. 

EDIT: And I'd love to see the first ever MetO "Thunderstorm Warning" if it does come to fruition. 

The next weekend and the following Monday look very hot and thundery acooring to the UKMO, GFS and ECMWF 12z’s.

More heat and convection and mid to upper level instabillity looks ripe for big and loud storms and local torrential heavy downpours.

Tomorrow Tuesday to Friday there is also quite a good chance of very warm and thundery weather indeed.

Mouthwatering charts.

Increasingly thundery ECM tonight, especially towards the weekend and early next week. 

Bank Lab

Not looking too hot for my trip to the Ballerics next month though:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

Latest early update from a la GFS.

The Tunisian Plume and SE E Spain and SW Europe Zephyr Spanish Plume associated with a very unstable Thundery Heat Low is shown to move to SW and S France from the aforementioned areas as the model run has shown progressing from t00 to t78..

On Thursday and Friday 24th and 25th May the East SE flow over South and SE England is quite well positioned.

A very good Scandy North And NE Europe Blocking High fed by further cells of the Azores High from outside of W and NW of Bay of Biscay.

The 15-20 degrees C T850’s and the plume of 564 dam air along with a mixed upper and mid level boundary layer and strong wind sheer in Spain SW S France in the 48-72 hr period looks like heading towards Southern UK indeed by Saturday to Monday 26th to 28th May.  I have not looked at the CAPE and LI from the 00z GFS today but as Low Pressure seems to be the big player here as well as the Azores Scandy High- there could well be a good chance of torrential rain and severe MCS storms with possible tornado’s in some parts as well.

😉😃😎⛈☔️🌪⚡️💦🌫. Let’s see how this develops over the next 5 days.

Update: 

Low Pressure to cross Spain and then France and then the UK, Moderate to Strong Easterly winds with High Pressure over North and NE and NW UK North and NE Europe, and very warm to hot weather - there could be some cloudy weather with South SE UK seeing increasing chance of heavy thundery storm showers- there could be some big hail and tornado’s can be possible and strong easterly winds. Sunshine would be less possible in this setup, though still hot and humid, but some dry air as well.  GFS and UKMO 00z runs have  UK and West Europe dominated by Active thundery Low with winds easterly for S and SE UK North and NE France English Channel blowing straight from Germany and Denmark et all.☔️⛈🌨😅😆. 

Update from ECMWF 00z run.

It looks hot and thundery with Sunny spellls and some big and small or widespread scattered thundery showers and SE winds in charge, easterly’s turn SE they then turn lighter but as we go through next week it is expected to continue with some thundery showers and sunny spells and or periods, ligh winds.  This can be said for much of the UK for the aforementioned period.

GWV Winter 18/19 NAO Forecast will be released on 1st July... Have a feeling this one will be eagerly awaited. 

Low pressure looking closer than earlier forecast.

It's looking less settled than it was could be some heavy thundery rain around.  Very warm though if not hot could hit 30c somewhere next week.

Meto forecast for June looks a bit dodgy though but we'll see jury's out for now.

It's all relative. High pressure will cap instability but is never an ultimate block on convection if other factors (moisture, instability, forcing) come into play.

Quite a number of trough lines appearing more or less randomly in the fax charts over the next few days, but so far (in this area at least) these have promised more than they've actually delivered. For instance, the trough which was upgraded to a front for the south coast this morning is only producing the odd shower here and there. Difficult forecasting territory, I know, but I think that the high CAPE levels which were posted a few days back, although giving rise to some storms, may not deliver as much as promised.

Further ahead, both GFS and ECM show an interesting small cold pool and associated low pressure developing in mid-Atlantic next Wed (31st) which then ambles around for the next few days without getting much larger. GFS brings it in over the UK, ECM shunts it off to Norway.

12z looking definitively more unsettled now....sadly this super spell is behind us for now.

Outlook looks thundery and unsettled with lots of slow moving showers.

Yep, compared to what we could be facing at this time of the year it looks pretty good up here for the reliable future IMO (tomorrow's blip aside).