I have agreed with Matty that it's about time for a new thread, as the old one is way past 100 pages.

Let's kick off with yesterday's chart:

 

We are now below 2011, with only 2007 just below.  An interesting and possibly revealing 5-7 weeks ahead.

Edited by user 02 August 2012 10:30:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I suspect that Beaufort reading is a single station anomaly but will try to find out. A couple of points re. the melt pools at the North Pole webcams:

The pools themselves are not unusual (although perhaps more usual earlier in the season?). Secondly the NP webcam, due to drift is now at 83°N as far as I'm aware. The picture at the Pole itself may be different.

Edit: further investigation into that Beaufort Sea data leads me to think the SST data is being derived from the Shingle Point weather station.

Edited by user 02 August 2012 10:05:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

 

So is the beaufort reading of up to 26C SST an anomoly/inaccuracy or is it real?

Yes. It may possibly be 13°C but I think even that is in unlikely (see Shingle Point above).

GW, any progress on that request in the old thread? :)

Tuktoyuktuk,, Canada, on the coast of Beaufort is pretty warm though at 17C. Normal average high temp is 15C, low is 6C.

http://www.weatheroffice...ages/nt-20_metric_e.html

These obs are not that far from the area of warm water - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov...n_page.php?station=PRDA2

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov...=250&ot=A&time=1

Current conditions up that way -

http://www.weatheroffice...=05709&stationID=WKM

Wonder why the two buoys in GSL are giving such different readings?

Volume also likely to be heading for record minimum:
http://psc.apl.washingto...php%20echo%20time%28%29?

I'm struggling to find a sequence of station temps along the C.A. shoreline since May (I know may and early June were cooler than norm but since melt season took off the lack of snow cover and ice retreat has kep temps well over average with the latest ECM models showing a 'well above average' month for Aug? I can only think that the loss of the moderating ice/snow cover is allowing 'normal' weather to now produce abnormal temps??

By the last day of July  ice area dropped below all other ice mins prior to 07' (so we are now already in a pack of only 5 other min's with probably over a month of melt still to go?) I take it folk were too focused on sea surface temps to notice?

I also take it we are all in agreement that the Canadian Archipelago 'Deep channel' has  once again become fully navigable (making it 5 years out of the past 6?)?

To think that only 3 years ago Prof Barber was setting out in search of the 'last Paleocryistic' in the basin in the very sea area seeing these extreme temps?

 

Clicking on the various coastal locations reveals a predominance of above average temperatures on both charts.  In fact some very significant positive variances.

Good link Bill, thanks.

Thanks Ulric!

I think when folk decry the 'death spiral' they should look at volume (is thee any other measure of the ice left in the basin?) and it's continued drops since 07'?

If 07' was such an 'outlier' then why did we not see any kind of 'recovery' after the event?

The facts show that we continued to lose mass each year since.

07' , in my opinion, merely showed us that the ice had become so thin as to allow total melt out of sections of the pack. How close was any year , post 97' to this event?

either there was one singnificant event between 97' (previous 'perfect storm synoptics) and 07's perfect storm to allow the loss of area we saw?

I've banged on, this year, about us approaching another threshold of ice thickness which would allow another significant drop in sea ice area, either this year or over the next few years (this time in the abscence of any 'perfect storm'), due to the amount of 'inner basin' open water we see at the beggining of June.

I know the posts above are focussing on 'weather' but at this time of year we should be looking at ocean temp and ice thickness. The thinner the ice and the warmer the water the more this time of year will impact ice nearer the pole. The first we will know of any approaching mega melt will (IMHO) be large areas of low concentration ice with high SSt's in the vicinity.

This is what we see this year.