Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Explosive;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

That 240 chart has support from the control run

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Long way off but that would be something special if it came off

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

It should be remembered folks that 10 days ago, this week was looking like another poor week as some model runs showed another low pressure aread moving in over the UK very soon after last weekend's low had cleared away, but then. they picked up on the HP area building over us this week. I think the uncertainty at the moment lies in where exactly next week's low will end up. ECM seems to want to move it NE over us towards Scandinavia whereas GFS seems to want to move it more towards Iceland. I wouldn't rule out a few chops and changes in the runs over the next 2-3 days.

Exactly I agree. Its difficult to add to that - I won't for sure!

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Haven't looked in here for a couple of days, when the outlook was decent. As soon as I saw Duane had posted in here today I knew the outlook was rubbish. Make the most of the next few days then

im glad i aint the only one who has noticed this , all through this  Summer

The ECM has backed off from the overly progressive atlantic thrust as shown yesterday and the GFS has taken it up instead. Its very very clear though that the prevailing summer pattern has adjusted westwards and the new central HQ of the low pressure is out in the atlantic. As much as I wondered if ECM was overdoing the proximity of the low pressure to the UK, I now suspect GFS is doing the same next week. Personal preference, actually, would be what we have today and tomorrow with pleasant warm weather and humidity levels not too high, rather than the oppressive, occasionally showery conditions that appear more likely from Sunday/Monday, if we assume and tend to discount the GFS as overdoing the lows and making it even more unsettled.

Edited by user 10 August 2012 11:34:05(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Could be some big rainall totals next week aay from the SE with slow moving heavy showers and more prolonged spells of rain at times, especially for Western and Northern areas. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Next week looking very changeable its difficult to know where we're heading for the rest of August. It never gets overly cool though.

Or cool at all in fact.

Still rather up in the air in terms of specifics for next week, but 'cool' is not a word you would use in any of the scenarios painted, in fact many keep it very warm for many. Obviously there are exceptions as with any situation

Hi Folks. This is my last report until next Saturday night. I'm very busy doing other things next week so apologies for that. Hope by the time I report next there will be High pressure totally dominant...wishful thinking I know. Anyway here's my attempt at tonight's 12zs.

The models continue to show that a breakdown is on the cards for Sunday as the current anticyclone gives way to the East at the expense of a Low pressure trough moving NE through Sunday and followed by very unstable conditions as Low pressure develops and deepens to the West. All areas will see a very pleasant weekend with warm or very warm conditions and copious sunshine in an increasing SE wind. Over the second half of the weekend the atmosphere de-stabilises from the SW with thundery showers breaking out for many away from the far East and North. As we move into next week the weather becomes unsettled and breezy with heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times in fresh Southerly winds. Temperatures would be very respectable outside of rain events though the benefit may not be felt at times.

GFS from midweek next week shows Low pressure having moved NE to Scotland moving away though pressure remains Low in the eastern atlantic maintaining an unstable airflow over the UK. The weather will be showery with the longest drier spells reserved for the SE where it could feel warm again by next weekend. In FI Low pressure remains the driving force for some while generally centred North of Scotland bringing rain at times for many especially in the North and West. Later High pressure is shown to take control settling things down somewhat with some dry and pleasant conditions should it verify.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a fairly wet week to come after Sunday pretty much everywhere. Thereafter, the weather dries up to some degree especially for Southern and Eastern locations. 850's become lower after a period of somewhat above average uppers next week.

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream as a slack feature to the South of the UK strengthening from the weekend as the Low pressures develop.

UKMO shows an unsettled end to its run although Thursday itself is shown to be OK for the SE as a transitory ridge is close by. Sunshine and showers is likely for most before further rain moves up from the SW on the day after 144hrs.

ECM tonight is a disaster zone for fine weather as it once more shows the most progressive outcome of weather next week. With Low pressure over the West and North of Britain much of the time there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain on most days and the SE would be included in this for some of the times at least. Temperatures would be OK in the brighter interludes but with the proximity of rain and cloud cover for much of the time the effects will be lost for some of the time most of all in heavy rainfall. The run closes with Low pressure over Norway with a trough SW over Britain meaning a showery westerly flow covering most areas.

In Summary tonight the weather looks disturbed for the foreseeable future once the next two days are past. With Low pressure becoming once more the governing feature near to the West or North of Britain there will be ample opportunities for rain some of it heavy and prolonged and some fresh breezes too. Temperatures though in the short term could remain very much on the warm side for the East and South. We can clutch at FI straws as usual tonight from GFS but the pattern seems to be resetting yet again for the third time this summer and with the sun falling lower in the sky day by day now I can see no opportunities in the output tonight for anything remotely resembling what we are currently experiencing.  See you in a week or so.

Edited by user 10 August 2012 19:10:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Next week looking very changeable its difficult to know where we're heading for the rest of August. It never gets overly cool though.

Or cool at all in fact.

Still rather up in the air in terms of specifics for next week, but 'cool' is not a word you would use in any of the scenarios painted, in fact many keep it very warm for many. Obviously there are exceptions as with any situation

Which is what I ment when I said it never gets overly cool. With winds oftern from the S/SW temps range from near average to above though it depends on which model you look at of course.

Though not getting overly cool sounds to me like cool, but not very. Which it doesn't look like to me. It's been looking warmer than average in the south for the majority of the next fortnight over a number of runs. Particularly next weekend. Mind you how much you'll enjoy the warmth if it's chucking it down probably depends. Could be good if the sun shines!

Take your pick;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png