Seems i'll be too far south for anything heavy from the rain on Thurs/ Friday with just 4mm! Some areas a lot more!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Yes GFS 12z has it further north (northern East Anglia into Lincolnshire and Yorkshire) and less heavy than the NAE link I just posted.

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/run/48-777.GIF?04-12

You're down for between 1 and 2mm!

Cumbria looks like the hot spot on that chart.

Andy W will not be happy.

Looks like North west lancs/southern cumbria to me?

very rarely post as i have little knowledge whenst compared to most on here but as a desperate farmer grasping at straws i am compelled to ask, is it just me or are there sighs of a pattern change in the GFS 12z this evening? Next week looks a lot drier in the south and further into FI the jet stream diverts upto the north pole. i always live in hope as i am a farmer,but am i right to be more optimistic?

lazy

Good evening. Here's my take on the 12zs as the sun shines down on the West Country this evening.

The general pattern remains unchanged for the next 4-5 days with all models showing slack pressure over or near to the UK with scattered showers and some more prolonged thundery rain the order of the day especially over the North on Friday. The showers themselves may well be heavy, slow moving and thundery though as always in showery airstreams some places miss them and stay entirely dry. After todays humidness rather fresher air will gradually take over in the next 24hrs but it will still feel OK in any July sunshine.

GFS looks a little less mundane tonight with Low pressures moving into the North of the UK but with High pressure somewhat closer to the South of the UK than of late. Winds would be much more noticeable though blowing from a Westerly quarter with fronts carrying rain across most areas with the heaviest of the rain falling over Northern and Western areas while the South and East see rather less rain. Despite the optimism though the basic synoptic pattern remains fairly similar and one run must not be looked at in isolation.

The GFS Ensembles do keep 850 temperatures close to the long term mean with rain at times for all both in London and Aberdeen.

UKMO's run tonight closes with a cool Northerly flow over the UK with thundery showers moving slowly South over Britain each day dying out slowly overnight.

ECM continues to show Low pressure the dominant force on the UK weather from tonights output evolving next week into little general change to where we are now with showers and rain at times for all due to Low pressure centred over Scotland next Wednesday. The weather improves nothing thereafter with further Low pressure setting up shop over Southern Britain to start the weekend ending with Low pressure engulfing the UK with further heavy rain possible anywhere.  

In Summary tonight there is no overall change with no summer heatwave anywhere in sight. GFS does look a little better but it is a case of straw clutching rather than an embryonic sign of change. UKMO and ECM show very disturbed conditions with widespread heavy showers and some longer spells of rain too especially from ECM. Having said the above we are in July and it won't be raining all the time and when the sun does shine temperatures will respond well and no doubt some places at the end of the next two weeks will end up having seen little rain but those that do may see an awful lot. It's a case of enjoying the occasional drier and brighter days when you get them as the chances are they won't last long.

Edited by user 04 July 2012 19:05:25(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Best way to put it really - A bit like this afternoon which was quite pleasant really - temps up to 23C.

 

Great summary Gibby. Thanks. Agree about making the most. Lovely evening here.

A good couples of inches of rain, alittle more in places capable of causing flooding considering the state of the ground etc.

Good morning. Here's how I see things looking from the 00zs this morning.

All models show Low pressure over or near the UK for the next 5-6 days. With time the centre trends towards the East of the UK bringing winds down from the North. Showers will occur in many places though some localities could miss them and stay dry with some pleasant warm sunshine. Equally though some areas could see appreciable prolonged rain with the Central slice of the UK likely to see that tomorrow. Where this occurs it will feel cool and some local flooding is also possible.

GFS then shows a continuation of unsettled weather as it moves through FI with winds freshening from the West as new Low pressure moves in from the Atlantic pushing rain bearing fronts east across Britain. The emphasis of the heaviest rain would shift towards the North and West while Southern districts should see the trend of somewhat less unsettled weather as high pressure ridges if from the South at times.

The GFS Ensembles still show remarkable consistency between the members in London wiith 850's showing little movement from the seasonal norm. Rain at times also continues to be shown though possibly a little less overall for London as time goes by. in Aberdeen uppers fall steadily before steadying out at the norm too with rain more frequent here after the next 48hrs.

UKMO looks better this morning with a strong ridge making good progress in from the West by day 6. If this ridge builds further and holds it could give an end to the current rut of wet and unsettled weather although the UKMO 144hr chart has proven to be less reliable than ECM at this range. Nevertheless, it is a welcome shift in the right direction.

ECM finally is less hopeful of the UKMO route preferring to collapse the ridge to the West before reaching us and bringing further Low pressure in from the West and maintaining the unsettled pattern going right through to day 10.

In Summary the talking point this morning is UKMO with its 144hr chart showing a strong ridge moving into the UK by next Wednesday. It may evolve on to nothing like ECM shows so I would like to see it expanded upon and shown in other output rather than in isolation but it is a start. Nevertheless, I feel a little more optimistic this morning with the chance of rain in any one place always there but on balance there could be some good, reasonably warm ( not summery) spells in between the scattered showers. Some unlucky areas though are still likely to see a lot of rain with the risk of flooding especially in the next 48hrs in the Central swathe of England.