It's actually rather nice this afternoon in London now the dampness has gone. Warm too. Feels kinda tropical.
It was an unpleasant surprise to see the temperatures soaring in the sun way beyond the 21C that was forecast for today: the 25C recorded here puts it in the "very warm" category locally. It means using the air-con again, something I didn't really want to have to do.
We need rain down here as the ground is rock solid due to there hardly being any for the past 3 weeks - I note that there may be some in the forecast but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it fizzled out or simply missed us.
The nearby continent really does have quite an influence on Kent!
Yes Darren, we got to 23c in the sun today July has been dryish so far although we did get 53mm in June which is slightly above average. What did you get in June?
Seems i'll be too far south for anything heavy from the rain on Thurs/ Friday with just 4mm! Some areas a lot more!
48mm here, although the vast majority of that fell in just 12 days, at the start of the month. From the 13th onwards it was generally just a trace of rain.
That NAE link you've posted has Sheppet between "6" and "30" gridpoints for the upcoming rain event. As NAE has been shifting the band northwards and GFS has never been that keen on heavy rain down here... I'd suspect the "6" will be closer to the actual result!
It's very reminiscent of 2007 to me though, we're copping the humid plumes while the rest of the UK gets the resultant rain! In 2007 everything was just that bit further south and east, but the overall pattern was rather similar.
Yes GFS 12z has it further north (northern East Anglia into Lincolnshire and Yorkshire) and less heavy than the NAE link I just posted.
You're down for between 1 and 2mm!
12z generally more of the same out to the third week of July, average temp wise in the south below average in the north rain for all more especially for the midlands and northern England.
Very different world across the pond with the inlaws visiting family in Chicago reporting temps knocking on for 100f with heat index up to 110f! They said their arrival was 'a shock' to the system!
Cumbria looks like the hot spot on that chart.
Andy W will not be happy.
You can't even see Cumbria on that chart.
Looks like North west lancs/southern cumbria to me?
leeds lad i think your right its probably NW Lancs in the firing line maybe Blackpool/preston way.
From my untrained eye, no not really pretty much as you were. Sorry. Someone with more knowledge may be able to see something though!
Good evening. Here's my take on the 12zs as the sun shines down on the West Country this evening.
The general pattern remains unchanged for the next 4-5 days with all models showing slack pressure over or near to the UK with scattered showers and some more prolonged thundery rain the order of the day especially over the North on Friday. The showers themselves may well be heavy, slow moving and thundery though as always in showery airstreams some places miss them and stay entirely dry. After todays humidness rather fresher air will gradually take over in the next 24hrs but it will still feel OK in any July sunshine.
GFS looks a little less mundane tonight with Low pressures moving into the North of the UK but with High pressure somewhat closer to the South of the UK than of late. Winds would be much more noticeable though blowing from a Westerly quarter with fronts carrying rain across most areas with the heaviest of the rain falling over Northern and Western areas while the South and East see rather less rain. Despite the optimism though the basic synoptic pattern remains fairly similar and one run must not be looked at in isolation.
The GFS Ensembles do keep 850 temperatures close to the long term mean with rain at times for all both in London and Aberdeen.
UKMO's run tonight closes with a cool Northerly flow over the UK with thundery showers moving slowly South over Britain each day dying out slowly overnight.
ECM continues to show Low pressure the dominant force on the UK weather from tonights output evolving next week into little general change to where we are now with showers and rain at times for all due to Low pressure centred over Scotland next Wednesday. The weather improves nothing thereafter with further Low pressure setting up shop over Southern Britain to start the weekend ending with Low pressure engulfing the UK with further heavy rain possible anywhere.
In Summary tonight there is no overall change with no summer heatwave anywhere in sight. GFS does look a little better but it is a case of straw clutching rather than an embryonic sign of change. UKMO and ECM show very disturbed conditions with widespread heavy showers and some longer spells of rain too especially from ECM. Having said the above we are in July and it won't be raining all the time and when the sun does shine temperatures will respond well and no doubt some places at the end of the next two weeks will end up having seen little rain but those that do may see an awful lot. It's a case of enjoying the occasional drier and brighter days when you get them as the chances are they won't last long.
Edited by user 04 July 2012 19:05:25(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Agreed fully with the above.
Best way to put it really - A bit like this afternoon which was quite pleasant really - temps up to 23C.
Doesn't look quite as bad? Moved back south a little with the Midlands under the main threat.
A good couples of inches of rain, alittle more in places capable of causing flooding considering the state of the ground etc.
Yeah, still too early to judge how bad it will be and where will suffer most I guess.
I'll post any updates in the thread created specifically for this in future.