If we want to see an improvement and some decent heat the main thing IMO is to see the polar vortex set up near Greenland, it is encouraging that heat is building up in Europe but the problem is the yellows and oranges need to dissappear around Greenland to stop the plumes going to far east because its encouraging cooler air to dig down over the UK.
Edited by user 29 June 2012 16:21:25(UTC)
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Here's my Friday musing for the first week to ten days of July:
More Thunderstorms Next Week?
Just to reiterate this, both GFS and UKMO 12z have that look of big thundery showers and storms from the cut off;
Now, when cut off's get invoved the models have all sorts of problems, so this might not be a done deal yet, BUT as it stands this evening (still waiting for ECM of course) expect some VERY big showers, thunderstorms, lightning, hail, tornado's and flooding in the south next week.
A very convective and thundery Met/o 12z.
And a very convective/thundery GFS 12z.
Dryer in the far north on both charts.
Ha, great minds think alike.
I can spot thunderstorm potential when I see it.
I know its a long way off yet but would this give Bristol a better chance of something than yesterday, seeing as the flow is from the opposite direction?
Some quite impressive heat building in North Eastern Europe/ Lithuania/ Latvia, could reach 100f on a couple of days:
That is impressive!
According to Wikipedia, the temperature records for Latvia and Lithuania are 36.4C and 37.5C respectively. If that chart came off surely some records would be broken.
Nick, Whitchurch, Hampshire
and just when you think that a cut off low is the cross model agreed consensus for day 6, up pops ecm 12z without it. the last week or two have been amazing for their lack of consistency in the nwp in what is normally a fairly reliable timescale
Indeed is has.
A large Azores ridge builds in FI aross the country by the ECM 12z.
Good evening folks. Here's a round up of he 12zs today.
In the short term all models show a breezy SW flow with occasional showers moving through in bands. The SE will see the least of these and some places could miss them altogether and stay dry, bright and breezy with average temperatures. Further North and West showers would be more prevalent and heavy in places with thunder a possibility tomorrow afternoon. Sunday's synoptics show less showers as a weak ridge moves through but close on its heals will be Low pressure moving steadily in from the West pushing troughs across many Southern areas with rain at times on Monday/Tuesday.
GFS then shows the rest of the week with the UK bathed in Low pressure with relatively light winds. The weather itself would be very convective with heavy, thundery and slow moving showers each day with the emphasis on the most showers shifting towards the South. Temperatures would be near normal. In FI things only marginally improves for a while with the threat of showers reduced away from the SE before renewed Low pressure moves in off the Atlantic with rain and wind spreading across many places by the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles remain as we've seen them with little fluctuation from the long term mean in 850 uppers throughout the run from most of the members for both London and Aberdeen. Rainfall occurs with relative frequency throughout the run when taking the members as a whole.
UKMO shows Low pressure next week settling close to Southern Britain with slack winds and heavy, thundery showers especially in the South.
ECM too looks distinctly showery in its middle stages with Low pressure close by to or over the UK generating heavy, thundery showers for many. Later in the run though the Azores high at long last ridges in meaningfully and brings a transformation to drier and more settled summerlike conditions to the UK as a whole with plenty of sun and temperatures rising above normal in very light winds.
In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and showery for the next week or so with some more organised rain likely on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the showers would be very heavy with hail and thunder while some places as always miss them altogether, staying dry and bright-this looking more likely in the North and West for a change. GFS continues this very showery phase more or less throughout FI whereas ECM has dangled another carrot for us tonight in pushing the Azores high NE to our shores late in its run with the prospect of generally dry, warmer and sunnier weather likely nationwide should it verify. I look forward to seeing where this run stands in the ensembles later.
Edited by user 29 June 2012 19:08:13(UTC)
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Hopefully this is the start of a trend towards a much better second half to summer. We have still got a good 10-12 weeks of useable summer left.
The ECM tonight is very much in line with MVH's comments on the 32-dayer and also could explain why the longer range Met Office forecast is showing a few chinks of light - in that it looks like it might become more settled.
Surely its not in line with those forecasts at all as it is kicking in warm and sunny weather from next weekend (7th), as opposed to mid-month (MVH / 32 dayer) or late month (METO)?
As Gooner says, anything after 120 is really just for fun.
After what happend yesterday, I think I've jumped onto that boat. Anything beyond is a half painted picture.
Edited by user 29 June 2012 20:44:04(UTC)
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Not really gone too early. There is a definite change in the MetO 30-day forecast - albeit a very slight change.
If the 32-day ECMWF forecast is looking up, I think that perhaps the slightly more settled ECM 12z is (or could be) a forerunner to what we may be seeing later in the month.
FWIW, I do think that a pattern change is imminent, for the simple reason that these conditions cannot carry on ad infinitum.
I hope and we hope and I would like to be proved wrong with my July CET forecast/guess which is a bad one I have gone for.
I'll stick to my figure - beacuse I don't believe in changing them - but If my figure was 2C too low - given the atrocious past 3 months we have had barring the last week of May - I would be delighted.
infact the change in the meto 30 dayer is more than slight moomin. my point (and YD's) was that the 30 dayer indicates a trend to better weather in the second half of july (moreso the last third). todays ecm 12z op doesnt even get to the 10th of july !! therefore the 12z op can hardly be anything to do with the meto update as there is at least a week between the end of the run and the possible onset of better sypnotics.