Runs from 1st June.
And so it begins....
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Edited by user 25 May 2012 11:51:21(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Yes I was aware of it..just have'nt had time to post just recently. Thanks for flagging it.
Yep also on my radar and looking forward to the analysis and discussion of the tropical season. One of my favourite weather subjects - next to severe tornadic storms of course
We now have subtropical storm Beryl
As you can see she is expected to track SW to make landfall in Florida/Georgia, perhaps as a fully tropical system - although this is not favoured at the moment - then weakening to a depression before curving back out to sea, at which point she could regain tropical or subtropical storm status.
The latest report is that she has 45mph winds and a central pressure of 1001mb.
ECM eventually takes Beryl as a vague feature into Spain, of all places.
GFS is slower to bring her into the N. Atlantic and loses her in an area of stalled troughing well west of the UK.
Thats most likely down to El Nimo.
Last season I remember reading comments along the lines of "This is a strange La Nina... the atmosphere isn't entirely as you'd expect it to be" which makes me wonder what a strange El Nino would bring
This year marks the first time in recorded history that a tropical storm has formed in both the east Pacific basin and Atlantic basin before the official start of hurricane season, the hurricane center said. The Pacific storm was called Aletta.Read more: http://www.wdsu.com/news/national/Tropical-storm-watch-canceled-for-SC/-/9853500/13493420/-/2bglut/-/index.html#ixzz1vym1OfQK
And now we have both Bud (Pacific) and Bertha (Atlantic); Bud was a full hurricane but now downgraded.
Amazingly even more records have been broken during the past 24-48 hours: Bud peaked at 115mph, making him the earliest category 3 Pacific storm in recorded history.
[quote=nouska;335631]Stormchaser said "Last season I remember reading comments along the lines of "This is a strange La Nina... the atmosphere isn't entirely as you'd expect it to be" which makes me wonder what a strange El Nino would bring.That will be the Modoki, witnessed in some recent years where upper atmosphere has been out of sorts with ocean phase. Sent a good few LRFs to the bin too.http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/elnmodoki/about_elnm.html[/quote
Thanks for that, it certainly explains why the conditions were out of sync with some long range predictions
Its interesting that they say it appears to have become more prominent in recent times.
Beryl made a quick transition to full tropical storm status just before landfalling in the far NE of Florida.
Her maximum winds reached 70mph - just 4mph short of hurricane status.
She's now travelling fully over land but it's quite low lying terrain so she's holding together pretty well:
The expected track takes her NW for 24 hours or so then NE back into the Atlantic where she'll be able to re-strengthen, however upon leaving the warm waters of the Gulf Steam (the very thing that allowed her to become a fully tropical storm) she is likely to rapidly become ex-tropical.
I love the way Beryl comes out, pirouettes around a depression off Newfoundland, swallows it whole and then gives up the ghost!
...meanwhile the ECM 00z run ploughs ex-Beryl straight into us during Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
If she were to track further NW then we'd get quite a tropical blast.
Come to think of it, getting an ex-tropical feature this early in the year must be a very rare occurance for the UK?
Beryl has brought and is bringing a lot of rain to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. She is now moving NE and will soon re-enter the Atlantic and begin the long journey that might bring her to the UK or leave her decaying in the central North Atlantic.
She's nearly fallen apart now so she probably won't be much of a tropical feature upon moving back over water, more an ex-tropical feature caught up with a frontal system.
Graphics to go with the above
On early hurricanes:
"Pre-1 June activity has very little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to 1 June were 1887 and 1908. While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to 1 June was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season," the forecasters said.Read more: http://www.wdsu.com/weather/hurricanes/Hurricane-forecasters-raise-2012-predictions/-/12848220/14434678/-/1b23bmz/-/index.html#ixzz1wifShA3b
I have a feeling that while the number of storms may be near average, quite a number of those storms may form in dangerous locations, creating a stark contrast to the last two years, which saw much above average activity but relatively few landfalls.
i notice ecm/gem/gfs have a depression headed into the gulf in about 10 days time. i assume this has the potential to be the first 'newsmaker' of the season - havent looked to see its projected route prior to this.
SCRAP THAT: its just a shallow depression developing in situ. it didnt originate in the atlantic.
Edited by user 09 June 2012 07:46:59(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Nothing on NHC's discussion page yet. Be interesting to see how it develops.