I've done an amusing vid on the prospect of summer arriving next week; http://gavsweathervids.com/
Oh I don't know Gavin - I've always found your forecasts sensible and level-headed
What could he be like when a thundery outbreak arrives from the south.
A long overdue settled outlook from the ECM with high pressure taking up residence to the northeast of the UK from the middle of next week. An easterly looks odds on now which may be quite brisk at times across southern areas. But there should be sufficient warmth to compensate. By the end of the run we see slight complications to the settled theme with the chance of some showers developing. However looking at 240h the Azores high looks to be making a renewed attempt to ridge towards the UK.
What ECM shows for days 8-10 is a classic summer type breakdown followed by a classic summer type reload of the more settled conditions.
GFS doesn't quite pull that off but its very close indeed. Allowing for it's tendency to give the Atlantic a bit too much shove in FI, I think the odds remain in favour of settled conditions tending to be with us more often than unsettled conditions... although maybe only just.
Best we all enjoy next week as much as we can rather than worrying about when it might break down and in what fashion.
Sitting by a fire on yet another cold, damp evening, that sounds good. Yet I can't help but feel that worrying about the breakdown is the whole point of the Model Output Discussion