Philip Eden's final figure for May is 12.0C
http://www.climate-uk.com/
How about that... my local mean finished at 12.56°C so only 0.14°C from my CET prediction
There are two days of missing final data in the Hadley figures at present. But the 29 days that are available combined with provisional data for the other two gives a CET of 11.72C. So the final CET once the missing data is in should be pretty much exactly 11.7C. I can say with reasonably certainty that the final figure will be 11.7C rounded to one decimal.
So congratulations to Quantum, speckledjim and Twister who had it spot on this month.
Hopefully Hadley will fill in the missing data in the next day or so and I will hold off on the final charts until then but here is the CET for May as it stands.
Phew I didn't get many points for that one then. I went for 10.5C so I was a bit out there.
wooooooooooo
Looks like ********** was right all along a very cold May indeed!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Yearly CET currently at -60.49ºC
Just goes to show what a copy of cooler days below -32760C can do to the month overall. No-one in the competition got within 336C of the final figure this month
Edited by user 03 June 2012 12:50:08(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Looks like Philip Eden ended up revising this down slightly to 11.97.
Met Office a bit confused.
I was 1.5C out - not a big margin - But I would have thought I might not have got too many points for that.
Seems Hadley have sorted out the gremlins for May at last.
Final CET finished at exactly 11.70C
After a very chilly start to the month we had a heatwave towards the end which helped the mean temperature to finish above average. Indeed Scotland broke its record for the warmest May day ever with a figure of 29.3C beating the previous record of 29.0C. Not the first time a record high temperature has been beaten in Scotland this year.
Here are the charts for the month - a real contrast between the first 21 days and the final 10. The CET for 1-21 May was 9.3C and for 22-31 May was 16.7C.
The Spring CET finished at 9.08C which is about 0.5C above average. This made it the 56th warmest Spring in the 354 year series so actually not bad at all despite much of April and the first 3 weeks of May being very disappointing.
The overall accuracy of the predictions in May was excellent with a mean error of just 0.46C which must be one of the lowest ever.
The tables after 5 months look like this. We have a change at the top again. redmoons reclaims the top spot that he held in March and now has a comfortable lead. Martyn holds on to his second place just. Martyn is the only person to hold a top 5 spot in every month this year and this comes after he won the competition last year. So he definitely looks like the person to beat at the moment.
garybournemouth is up two places to third which is not his highest position of the year as he was joint top in January. Brummie Snowman falls to fourth after heading the table last month. lanky slips one to fifth. The Professional continues climbing up the table rising another three places to sixth while speckledjim moves back up nine to seventh.
Trickster is also back into the top ten rising five places to eighth his highest position of the year. domma slips three to ninth and Devonian climbs two to tenth.
Elsewhere there were very few big movers either up or down the table. The only person moving more than 10 places was me falling 15 to 25th - ouch! After the first three weeks with a CET of 9.3C I was feeling rather good about my prediction of 10.3C but it all went horribly wrong in the final ten days.
I still think I was robbed.
Thanks, as ever, for all your hard work GW and congratulations to the winners .
One thing I don't immediately understand is the to two decimal places results?
Edited by user 06 June 2012 20:56:12(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
The two decimals are used purely to separate the placings in the table and avoid ties - otherwise we might end up with a joint winner at the end of the year. Hadley publish their data to two decimals as does Philip Eden. You can make your prediction to two decimals if you wish although there is little point as it is impossible to be that accurate.
Edited by user 06 June 2012 21:04:10(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Cheers, I didn't realise Hadley was two decimal places.