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GIBBY Offline
#401 Posted : 11 April 2012 08:24:45(UTC)
GIBBY

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Location: Radstock Bath
Plenty of cool weather on offer from this mornings output with this weeks very showery weather giving way to a decent day Monday before a return of cool and unsettled weather again thereafter. A particularly cold night with a sharp frost looks likely Sunday night before the next Low comes in. Cold enough for snow at times on Northern hills and good weather at times for photogenic cloudscapes-particularly this week. All in all a typically April spell of weather coming up.
Martin G
Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton & Radstock Weather Website

Now includes a page of links to the latest charts from GFS, UKMO, ECM and GEM plus the latest Bracknell Fax Charts
Don't Forget you can view my Daily Weather Reports and Summaries at 08:00 and 19:00GMT on my website. Go To Home Page and follow link to 'Model Analysis'.


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North Sea Snow Convection Offline
#402 Posted : 11 April 2012 10:22:43(UTC)
North Sea Snow Convection

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Location: Nr Kent/E Sussex Coast

With all the lovely weather recently to savour haven't bothered assessing what the computer models are suggesting for a long time now. But with the dregs of this weeks downpours having arrived thought it might be worth seeing what was ahead in the hope it was temporary...and wished I hadn't

The ECM, just for example, through next week looks atrocious with deep low pressure moving right through the core of the UK Some steady ordinary rain would be welcome, but as ever the weather flips too far when it does finally switch. Looks as though we will pay for some time now for the fine late winter and first half of Spring conditions.

Best hope a stable high pressure approaches from the south west again by May, although that looks a forlorn hopecast at this stage.

 
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Charmhills Offline
#403 Posted : 11 April 2012 15:19:01(UTC)
Charmhills

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
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Location: Loughborough, North Leic, East Midlands.

Originally Posted by: North Sea Snow Convection Go to Quoted Post

With all the lovely weather recently to savour haven't bothered assessing what the computer models are suggesting for a long time now. But with the dregs of this weeks downpours having arrived thought it might be worth seeing what was ahead in the hope it was temporary...and wished I hadn't

The ECM, just for example, through next week looks atrocious with deep low pressure moving right through the core of the UK Some steady ordinary rain would be welcome, but as ever the weather flips too far when it does finally switch. Looks as though we will pay for some time now for the fine late winter and first half of Spring conditions.

Best hope a stable high pressure approaches from the south west again by May, although that looks a forlorn hopecast at this stage.

 

The Met 30 days keeps it unsettled as far as the eye can see with temps slightly below average at times with night frosts.


Duane.




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kmoorman Offline
#404 Posted : 11 April 2012 15:46:31(UTC)
kmoorman

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Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,552

Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: North Sea Snow Convection Go to Quoted Post

With all the lovely weather recently to savour haven't bothered assessing what the computer models are suggesting for a long time now. But with the dregs of this weeks downpours having arrived thought it might be worth seeing what was ahead in the hope it was temporary...and wished I hadn't

The ECM, just for example, through next week looks atrocious with deep low pressure moving right through the core of the UK Some steady ordinary rain would be welcome, but as ever the weather flips too far when it does finally switch. Looks as though we will pay for some time now for the fine late winter and first half of Spring conditions.

Best hope a stable high pressure approaches from the south west again by May, although that looks a forlorn hopecast at this stage.

 

The Met 30 days keeps it unsettled as far as the eye can see with temps slightly below average at times with night frosts.

 

So, the hosepipe ban won't be needed for the foreseeable future then?

Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex.

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Visit my Blog at: www.devon-gold.blog.co.uk
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Steam Fog Offline
#405 Posted : 11 April 2012 16:22:17(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Joined: 25/08/2010(UTC)
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Location: Brighton
Originally Posted by: kmoorman Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: North Sea Snow Convection Go to Quoted Post

With all the lovely weather recently to savour haven't bothered assessing what the computer models are suggesting for a long time now. But with the dregs of this weeks downpours having arrived thought it might be worth seeing what was ahead in the hope it was temporary...and wished I hadn't

The ECM, just for example, through next week looks atrocious with deep low pressure moving right through the core of the UK Some steady ordinary rain would be welcome, but as ever the weather flips too far when it does finally switch. Looks as though we will pay for some time now for the fine late winter and first half of Spring conditions.

Best hope a stable high pressure approaches from the south west again by May, although that looks a forlorn hopecast at this stage.

 

The Met 30 days keeps it unsettled as far as the eye can see with temps slightly below average at times with night frosts.

 

So, the hosepipe ban won't be needed for the foreseeable future then?



Well hose pipes might not be relevant for a while, but the ban is based on long term dry conditions lasting almost two years, so April rain is just the start of the beginning, rather than a long term solution.
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Charmhills Offline
#406 Posted : 11 April 2012 17:48:40(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough, North Leic, East Midlands.

Duane.




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Stormchaser Offline
#407 Posted : 11 April 2012 18:13:43(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

GFS has brought back the easterly idea again on the 12z run and in a big way too.

Will ECM edge towards this solution, jump boat completely, or continue to insist that low pressure will again become stuck right over the UK?

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 19.8 7th May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March!
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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Charmhills Offline
#408 Posted : 11 April 2012 18:46:15(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough, North Leic, East Midlands.

Duane.




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GIBBY Offline
#409 Posted : 11 April 2012 19:02:46(UTC)
GIBBY

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Location: Radstock Bath

Tonight's 12zs continue the increasingly cool and showery theme with hail, thunder and increasingly sleet or snow on higher ground as we move towards the weekend. Light winds innitially but a freshening NNE flow over the weekend will make it feel distinctly chilly. Monday still looks a good day for most after a frosty start but all models show further Low pressure sliding into the UK early next week with further rain and showers. GFS goes off on a different tangent as we move through FI setting up high pressure near Scandinavia and easterly winds flooding into the UK. A few showers would still be possible at times towards the SE but a lot of dry weather for many. ECM on the other hand keep the jet well south of the UK with Low pressure dumbelling around the UK with heavy rain or showers at times as well as staying on the cool side.

Martin G
Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton & Radstock Weather Website

Now includes a page of links to the latest charts from GFS, UKMO, ECM and GEM plus the latest Bracknell Fax Charts
Don't Forget you can view my Daily Weather Reports and Summaries at 08:00 and 19:00GMT on my website. Go To Home Page and follow link to 'Model Analysis'.


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yorkshirelad89 Offline
#410 Posted : 11 April 2012 21:14:32(UTC)
yorkshirelad89

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Joined: 10/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 936

Wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest April since 1989 now, some remarkably cold uppers over the UK this weekend and with a very stagnant pattern I can't see the cold air being displaced very quickly.

Jonny

Kingston Upon Hull
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Charmhills Offline
#411 Posted : 12 April 2012 08:49:37(UTC)
Charmhills

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
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Location: Loughborough, North Leic, East Midlands.

Looking unsettled if not very unsettled with showers or longer periods of heavy rain/hill snow and sleet/hail at lower levels in showers a possibility at times.

Often chilly throughout.


Duane.




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Stormchaser Offline
#412 Posted : 12 April 2012 08:52:55(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

GFS has decided to gradually bring in a large storm from the Atlantic starting next Wednesday, which means a westerly regime with milder temperatures but also more showers and some frontal rain too.

ECM is still with the idea of having smaller troughs moving across the UK from the NW or W, without bringing in anything particularly mild.

 

Run the 00z BOM from 192 hours (view here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php) and you can see two lows advancing on the UK from opposite sides, a fascinating prospect.

 

A significant change from previous runs of the models is that high pressure is now looking to hold firm across the Azores, rather than backing off and allowing troughing to set up shop there. The high refuses to ridge NE, so we're stuck in the unsettled regime. GFS's solution is potentially wetter than ECM's as there are more boundaries between airmasses involved across the UK, meaning more frontal rain rather than unreliable showers.

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 19.8 7th May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March!
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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Sevendust Offline
#413 Posted : 12 April 2012 09:17:51(UTC)
Sevendust

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 30,934
Location: Alton, Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

GFS has decided to gradually bring in a large storm from the Atlantic starting next Wednesday, which means a westerly regime with milder temperatures but also more showers and some frontal rain too.

ECM is still with the idea of having smaller troughs moving across the UK from the NW or W, without bringing in anything particularly mild.

 

Run the 00z BOM from 192 hours (view here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php) and you can see two lows advancing on the UK from opposite sides, a fascinating prospect.

 

A significant change from previous runs of the models is that high pressure is now looking to hold firm across the Azores, rather than backing off and allowing troughing to set up shop there. The high refuses to ridge NE, so we're stuck in the unsettled regime. GFS's solution is potentially wetter than ECM's as there are more boundaries between airmasses involved across the UK, meaning more frontal rain rather than unreliable showers.

Crucial point. The only real rain event since early March occured last Monday during frontal activity. At present the showers aren't really cutting it for meaningful rainfall

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 Offline
#414 Posted : 12 April 2012 09:23:48(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Man
Location: Forest Gate London
The Benign UK April Weather continues next few days with thunder rain and hail plus snow over the hilly parts.

The model Output at t120 and T144 right upto t192 is still showing southerly west east N Atlantic UK Low Pressure bring Tuesday rain and thundery showers- then Thursday Friday GFS more WSW winds heavy rain but at T144 UKMO brings in cold Northerly arctic rear of Low flow winds northerly's.

UK colder by Saturday Sunday this Weekend with night frosts northerly winds.

Ridge of high moves SE on following Monday next week. ? will we see high pressure develop from the NW move East to UK by Thurs Friday next Week - UKMO has Deep Low over NE Canada Newfoundland and near SW Greenland and in NW Atlantic at t144?.

Will the Wednesday arctic northerly develop ? GFS bring WSW flow and heavy rain with Low from West N Atlantic to move NE thru UK Thursday Friday next week ? That might be wrong?.
Laiq B.

London Weather History
Dec 2010:

Lowest Temperature -4.3 deg. C at 0656 20/12/2010
Coldest Day -2.1 deg. C 1800 03/12/2010

Jan. 2011 Records:
Highest Temperature 14.2 deg. C 1246 13th Jan. 2011
Lowest Temperature 0.4 deg. C 2005

Highest Barometer 1039.9hPa 2319 21/01/2011
Highest Solar 422 W/m2 1258 22/01/2011
Highest Rainfall 15.2mm 23/01/2011
Lowest Windchill: -6.2 2034 28/01/2011


Work: St. James Park London
Home: East London
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GlenH Offline
#415 Posted : 12 April 2012 14:28:19(UTC)
GlenH

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Joined: 19/12/2008(UTC)
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Location: West Yorks

Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

 

Crucial point. The only real rain event since early March occured last Monday during frontal activity. At present the showers aren't really cutting it for meaningful rainfall

 

Plenty of rain around here. I wish it would sod off though! Sadly very lityle sign of that in the models today.
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Matty H Offline
#416 Posted : 12 April 2012 16:32:28(UTC)
Matty H

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Location: Lost

New thread on the way

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