With all the lovely weather recently to savour haven't bothered assessing what the computer models are suggesting for a long time now. But with the dregs of this weeks downpours having arrived thought it might be worth seeing what was ahead in the hope it was temporary...and wished I hadn't
The ECM, just for example, through next week looks atrocious with deep low pressure moving right through the core of the UK Some steady ordinary rain would be welcome, but as ever the weather flips too far when it does finally switch. Looks as though we will pay for some time now for the fine late winter and first half of Spring conditions.
Best hope a stable high pressure approaches from the south west again by May, although that looks a forlorn hopecast at this stage.
The Met 30 days keeps it unsettled as far as the eye can see with temps slightly below average at times with night frosts.
So, the hosepipe ban won't be needed for the foreseeable future then?
Unsettled and chilly generally, Met/o 12z.
GFS has brought back the easterly idea again on the 12z run and in a big way too.
Will ECM edge towards this solution, jump boat completely, or continue to insist that low pressure will again become stuck right over the UK?
Unsettled/very unsettled and chilly ECM 12z.
Unsettled ECM FI.
Edited by user 11 April 2012 19:02:44(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Tonight's 12zs continue the increasingly cool and showery theme with hail, thunder and increasingly sleet or snow on higher ground as we move towards the weekend. Light winds innitially but a freshening NNE flow over the weekend will make it feel distinctly chilly. Monday still looks a good day for most after a frosty start but all models show further Low pressure sliding into the UK early next week with further rain and showers. GFS goes off on a different tangent as we move through FI setting up high pressure near Scandinavia and easterly winds flooding into the UK. A few showers would still be possible at times towards the SE but a lot of dry weather for many. ECM on the other hand keep the jet well south of the UK with Low pressure dumbelling around the UK with heavy rain or showers at times as well as staying on the cool side.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest April since 1989 now, some remarkably cold uppers over the UK this weekend and with a very stagnant pattern I can't see the cold air being displaced very quickly.
Looking unsettled if not very unsettled with showers or longer periods of heavy rain/hill snow and sleet/hail at lower levels in showers a possibility at times.
Often chilly throughout.
GFS has decided to gradually bring in a large storm from the Atlantic starting next Wednesday, which means a westerly regime with milder temperatures but also more showers and some frontal rain too.
ECM is still with the idea of having smaller troughs moving across the UK from the NW or W, without bringing in anything particularly mild.
Run the 00z BOM from 192 hours (view here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php) and you can see two lows advancing on the UK from opposite sides, a fascinating prospect.
A significant change from previous runs of the models is that high pressure is now looking to hold firm across the Azores, rather than backing off and allowing troughing to set up shop there. The high refuses to ridge NE, so we're stuck in the unsettled regime. GFS's solution is potentially wetter than ECM's as there are more boundaries between airmasses involved across the UK, meaning more frontal rain rather than unreliable showers.
Crucial point. The only real rain event since early March occured last Monday during frontal activity. At present the showers aren't really cutting it for meaningful rainfall
Plenty of rain around here. I wish it would sod off though! Sadly very lityle sign of that in the models today.
New thread on the way