He also says that the ECM 32 dayer didn't pick up the recent hot/settled spell very well so there is always hope.
June not looking good at the moment.
FROM MATT HUGO TWITTER
"Latest update of the EC 32 day is not good...Strong signal for low pressure/unsettled conditions to start with between the 4th-10th of June"
"more changeable second half of the month is signaled, but with low pressure never too far away, so not a particularly good June signaled"
"Unfortunately yes. It looks like low pressure/unsettled weather will become dominant by the end of the first week of June."
"The GFS v ECM anom graphic clearly showing a trend for a trough/low pressure over the UK days 8 to 10"
"This ECMWF chart isn't an outlier...There is quite model-wide agreement for low pressure by the 8th -"
I hope people have enjoyed this fine spell as its all down hill from next week.
Actually it didn't pick-up the recent and ongoing and now quite prolonged very warm and mainly settled spell at all.Confidence in the above LRF is fairly low, at least with me.
It did pick it up to a certain extent I posted the below quotes on the 8th May.
Still the hope of something better at the end of May early June but I think we can write off most of May now.
MATT HUGO FROM TWITTER
"Latest EC 32 day showing good consistency with low pressure dominant until a potential change to higher pressure late May & into early June"
"May still likely to have precip totals slightly above or above average, with temps near if not slightly below avg now..."
"The signal for the opening week of June is towards higher pressure, but it's a very weak and uncertain signal at this stage..."
Edited by user 29 May 2012 09:18:06(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
The signal was for weak high pressure for the end of May and into the start of June. Not far off actually.
It's not perfect by any means but it is by far the most reliable long range model. The chances of a hot/settled June look unlikely now sadly.
Edited by user 29 May 2012 09:43:48(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
You certainly cant write June off in May but it would have been nice to have the ECM 32 dayer saying hot and settled all the way.
Edited by user 29 May 2012 10:04:41(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
If anyone can prove to me that any LRF is particularly reliable then I might take notice. You can probably find one to fit any scenario at any time LOL. Duane is correct in saying that the particular LRF mentioned more HP late in May BUT its how it converts on the ground that's important. Placement of that HP could lead to cool and cloudy or very warm and sunny. As it is we got lucky but the point is that LRF's are generally useless for identifying actual weather beyond the reliable timeframe(whatever that is)
Beyond about 5 days or so it becomes increasingly irrelevent. Look no further than T120 for reliability. The rest becomes no more than educated guesswork
The recent ECMWF runs have shown that the location of any low is very uncertain and can have a mssive effect on temperature.
No model has yet got a grip on longer term trends. Yes, you can say that there are times when that happens but if you look at the "big 3" they are not often in full agreement beyond T120. The above comment about the ECM 32 dayer not being hot and sunny is what I'm getting at. Its one model and its a forecast so why worry if something that goes out as far as 32 days predicts a certain weather type? Some people have there favourite models on here but they are all highly fallible the longer out they go and flips do occur, even at short notice. I just wish that people would not get hung up on charts in FI and enjoy the reliable and actual stuff. Life's too short
I get the impression that beyond 7 days or so, models aren't very good at knowing when a particular development in the atmosphere will cross the threshold required to initiate a pattern shift. This sometimes leads to models sustaining an existing pattern for longer than the reality turns out to be.
I struggle to understand how long range forecasting can really work beyond a very broad scale, given that the atmosphere tends to develop pattern changes from very small beginnings, with, for example, the positioning of a shortwave feature in 7 days time playing a large role in defining whether high pressure sets up in a belt through the UK or down to our SE, leaving us open to an Atlantic onslaught.
IMO what long range forecasting can achieve with a reasonable degree of success is to tell us whether the pattern is likely to be predominantly meridonal or zonal and, if the former is shown, give us a rough idea of where major blocking highs are likely to form.
At least, it can do that to a month ahead, two with a stretch...
May to the 28th.
- new maximum May temperature for Scotland.
- it has been the longest warm spell in May since 1992.
- temperature just above average.
- sun just above average.
- rain below average.
How quickly it all changed after mid-month!
56 years of Tornado tracks!