Another year is nearly upon us so it is time to start thinking about CET predictions for 2012. There are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2012 as a whole.
A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead (I will open up the January thread shortly). The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month.
For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2012. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.
More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2012 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure). Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).Entries close at 23:59 on 2nd JanuaryTo assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line). Worth noting that apart from 2010, the CET has not finished below 9.96C since 1996.
I will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year and post updates in this thread.
Edited by user 13 January 2013 12:11:13(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
I'm throwing caution to the wind for this one and going for a record breaker
I will go for 11.15 with a much hotter summer than last year.
I reckon it wil be a mild one, but not a record-breaking one, as I fear we're in for another rather grey and cool summer. So I shall plump for 10.58 °C, please.
Over 11? Can't see it happening but would love a real scorcher of a summer. I suppose if we got a summer like 2006 after a winter like 1990 we could do it!
I am hopeful for a hot one overall and think the rest of the winter will be pretty mild so I'll go for 10.75C
Edited by user 27 December 2011 17:48:01(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
This looks like a good opportunity for a wild guess - a warm winter, a cool dull summer and an average autumn - would that come out at around 9.82 I wonder
Need some time to think about this. I am seeing some parallels with 1956, which would mean a sub 9c year. Dare I?
This time last year, promted by JB's enthusiasm and being green about where to find the CET info, I asked GW to put me down for the CET figure for 1956. I wonder... is it worth a retry this year ......nope, cannot see February ice floes in the Bassin d'Arcachon.
For this year, I'll head off in the opposite direction and opt for 2003 revisited - with the added misery of severe water restrictions!!
I'll go for 9.99C as a random guess.
I think we're due for some hotter spells next summer, then a cooler late autumn! I'm going for 10.35c
10.40°C for me please. Thanks!
I feel we're in for a more zonal year than of late, with some variety in temps, and a final CET a little down on this year.So I'll go for 10.65
10.86 for me please.