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Your winter 2011/12 CET forecast
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roger63 Offline
#1 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:31:32(UTC)
roger63

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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Signals for the winter are far from clear and models and amateur forecasts have widely different outcomes.Many members have been waiting to finalize there own views.Now is the time to nail your colours to the mast and plump for your winter CET forecast.

A bit of context -the 1971-00 CET for December - February averages 4.5C.The last two winters were very different in detail but both were cold,09/10 being 2.4C,10/11 being 3.1C.As well as getting your individual forecasts we should find which way the forum as a whole will tip-above or below average.

Entries by end of November.

I'll kick off with a below average 3.9C



Edited by user 07 December 2011 08:16:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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MVH Offline
#2 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:34:07(UTC)
MVH

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Location: Rossendale, Lancs, 900ft (274m) asl

In-line with my own personal seasonal forecast which is a few weeks away, i'm going to opt with near or just slightly below average temps overall this winter and say;

4.0C

I just can't see a repeat of the kind of temps we had over the 3 months in the 2 previous winters happening again this year...

M.

Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
Weather Commerce Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81
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JACKO4EVER Offline
#3 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:36:40(UTC)
JACKO4EVER

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Location: Notts/ Leicestershire Border

4.7C with a cooler start and warmer end.

Jason in The Vale of Belvoir
Near the Leics/ Notts Border
495 Feet Above Sea Level

2012- The Crapfest Summer



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Gavin D User is suspended until 27/02/2149 23:16:37(UTC)
#4 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:44:00(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,667

I'm going for a warm winter this year very little in the way of prolonged cold spells like 2010,

5.6c

For the 3 months

Edited by user 09 November 2011 16:45:30(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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wallaw Offline
#5 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:52:41(UTC)
wallaw

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Location: Stockton-on-Tees

I have no idea which way it is going to go, I still have a feeling (and it's nothing more scientific than that) that we are in for another colder than average winter. Maybe nothing to compare in any one month to last December, but over the 3 month period I am going to go for 3.8

Ian


Stockton-on-Tees
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warrenb Offline
#6 Posted : 09 November 2011 14:59:33(UTC)
warrenb

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Location: Tonbridge, Kent
2.6C for me. Going to get very cold.
My Home Weather Page
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NeilM Offline
#7 Posted : 09 November 2011 15:05:20(UTC)
NeilM

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Location: Birmingham

I'll go for 3.4C, mild to start with then colder through the middle and at the end.

Stechford, Birmingham - 115m asl


My Weather Station: http://weatherstation.njmurray.co.uk/

Updated my website,www.njmurray.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.



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Zubzero Offline
#8 Posted : 09 November 2011 15:14:26(UTC)
Zubzero

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Location: Cambourne

3.4C please
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Islander Offline
#9 Posted : 09 November 2011 15:16:55(UTC)
Islander

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Location: Guernsey

2.8C me thinks (hopes) 

Guernsey
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Essan Offline
#10 Posted : 09 November 2011 15:25:37(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
Location: in a cave ... Evesham, Worcs

Overall rather average: 4.5c

Andy

Weather & Earth Science News

"Getting entangled with humans clouds the thinking" - Death

Walk the Worcestershire Way - 29 June 2013 - in aid of Vasculitis UK
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Rob K Offline
#11 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:08:52(UTC)
Rob K

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Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
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Location: Northeast Hampshire
4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Winter 2012/2013 (to Feb 28) — Snow falling days: 17 (Dec 5, Jan 12, Jan 14, Jan 17-20, Jan 22-25, Feb 9, Feb 11, Feb 13, Feb 22-24). Snow lying days (at 9am): 10 (Dec 5, Jan 14, Jan 18-25). Max depth: 11cm (Jan 18, Jan 20). Min temperature -7.5C (Jan 22). Days with air frost 37 of 90 (DEC, 10; JAN, 13; FEB, 14). Ice days: 2 (Jan 18, Jan 20)
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Lazy Wind Offline
#12 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:12:27(UTC)
Lazy Wind

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Location: Oldham

6.0 for me.
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speckledjim Offline
#13 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:16:58(UTC)
speckledjim

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Joined: 02/07/2006(UTC)
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Location: Thorner, West Yorkshire 112m asl
i'll go for 5.1c
not young enough to know everything
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GemmaD Offline
#14 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:19:31(UTC)
GemmaD

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Joined: 24/09/2011(UTC)
Posts: 116
Location: Livingston, Scotland, UK
2.4C. I'm going for a below average winter, I think it's going to be late arriving though..
Keep safe during the winter months!

Livingston - SNOWING!!
There is frost that is still lying from the morning and its freezing! Snow soon? :D
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weatherwise Offline
#15 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:20:03(UTC)
weatherwise

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Location: Bedford

Originally Posted by: Lazy Wind Go to Quoted Post

6.0 for me.

 

Yes please.

I will be a little more conservative (for a change) at 5.5C.

Elevation: 30m
Bedford Weatherwise
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Edicius81 Offline
#16 Posted : 09 November 2011 16:23:48(UTC)
Edicius81

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Location: East London

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.

Waine
East London (again!)
My Twitter

We must never stop standing up for our values
we must show that our open society also will pass this test.
And that our answer to violence is even more democracy,
even more humanity, but never naivety.

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festivalking Offline
#17 Posted : 09 November 2011 17:19:24(UTC)
festivalking

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Joined: 22/01/2009(UTC)
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Location: Woolwell, Plymouth, Devon

 dry but average temps in dec. Mild in Jan with the odd cold day. Feb cold dry start ending wet and mild.

CET 5.45

Woolwell 121 M/asl or 400 ft/asl 6 miles inland - in spitting and wishing distance of dartmoor



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Justin W Offline
#18 Posted : 09 November 2011 18:24:18(UTC)
Justin W

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Location: North Downs, East Kent

3.4C 

Hastingleigh, Kent
205m asl
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Essan Offline
#19 Posted : 09 November 2011 18:42:44(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
Location: in a cave ... Evesham, Worcs

Originally Posted by: Edicius81 Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.



Hmmm, I just checked the tea leaves and they predict a cold, soggy, winter, but with good composting ......

Edited by user 09 November 2011 18:44:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Andy

Weather & Earth Science News

"Getting entangled with humans clouds the thinking" - Death

Walk the Worcestershire Way - 29 June 2013 - in aid of Vasculitis UK
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Maunder Minimum Offline
#20 Posted : 09 November 2011 18:45:06(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

No clue, but just for fun, I will go cold.

Please give me 2.1 - will be totally wrong, but I don't care.

Public spending cuts now, are a result of Brown's lack of prudence as Chancellor and PM.
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