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Steam Fog Offline
#141 Posted : 28 May 2012 07:48:12(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Having bounced along for the last couple of weeks at a relatively high level compared to the rest of 2012. Things have calmed down a bit in the last week.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Younger Dryas Online
#142 Posted : 28 May 2012 09:59:56(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Having bounced along for the last couple of weeks at a relatively high level compared to the rest of 2012. Things have calmed down a bit in the last week.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes, as I commented in the Model thread. So this could lead to some interesting weather in here in early June
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Gandalf The White Offline
#143 Posted : 28 May 2012 14:47:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Having bounced along for the last couple of weeks at a relatively high level compared to the rest of 2012. Things have calmed down a bit in the last week.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes, as I commented in the Model thread. So this could lead to some interesting weather in here in early June

Do you really thing the effects are that quick and that direct?  I am really quite surprised by your suggestion.

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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Younger Dryas Online
#144 Posted : 28 May 2012 17:07:23(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Having bounced along for the last couple of weeks at a relatively high level compared to the rest of 2012. Things have calmed down a bit in the last week.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes, as I commented in the Model thread. So this could lead to some interesting weather in here in early June

Do you really thing the effects are that quick and that direct?  I am really quite surprised by your suggestion.

I don't have a quantitative analysis on the subject, but qualitatively I do recall a number of cold spells which seemed to be going fine, but then got interrupted a few days after an increase in solar activity
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Ulric Online
#145 Posted : 28 May 2012 20:38:14(UTC)
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You think this must be true just because you have suggested it?

"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."
Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91
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Younger Dryas Online
#146 Posted : 29 May 2012 00:04:02(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: Ulric Go to Quoted Post

You think this must be true just because you have suggested it?

Ulric, No need to be needlessly confrontational!

I have posited a theory based on personal recollections of several past events. I have not, at all, said that it "must be true"!

I am open to the evidence (such that it exists) on the matter.

Chill!
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nouska Offline
#147 Posted : 29 May 2012 08:03:39(UTC)
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http://ccsenet.org/journ...article/view/14754/10140

Dr Abdussamatov's recent thoughts on the next couple of solar cycles. He seems to be suggesting a Maunder type minimum is likely.
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Steam Fog Offline
#148 Posted : 22 June 2012 08:35:28(UTC)
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Solar activity had been relatively strong through most of the first three weeks of June. Not reaching the heights of last November nor the lows of February.

But it has just fallen through the floor.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

That's the lowest in 10 months. Presumably we'll see an equally strong bounce back shortly...
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Ulric Online
#149 Posted : 22 June 2012 12:55:45(UTC)
Ulric

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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754/10140

Dr Abdussamatov's recent thoughts on the next couple of solar cycles. He seems to be suggesting a Maunder type minimum is likely.

He's completely emotionally and intellectually invested in this idea and if it doesn't happen he'll die a broken man.

 

All say aaahhh.

"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."
Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91
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Steam Fog Offline
#150 Posted : 25 June 2012 07:17:35(UTC)
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A slight increase today, but still very low values indeed. An increase looks imminent, but current activity (even before the current collapse) is nowhere near that of last November.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Steam Fog Offline
#151 Posted : 03 July 2012 06:30:54(UTC)
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Having spent the last week of June really in the doldrums activity has roared back with some of the strongest numbers so far this year now.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Solar Cycles Offline
#152 Posted : 03 July 2012 08:13:54(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Having spent the last week of June really in the doldrums activity has roared back with some of the strongest numbers so far this year now. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
Interesting regarding YD's assumption on how a ramp up in activity last time brought about a warm/setteled spell over the UK. At the time he was ridiculed by some, but looking at the 500mb charts for July he may have a good point, as the second half of the month looks like being warmer and settled. 

Also I did comment how I felt we hadn't reached solar max just yet, could this ramp up be the one?

Edited by user 03 July 2012 08:14:50(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#153 Posted : 03 July 2012 08:32:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

 

Also I did comment how I felt we hadn't reached solar max just yet, could this ramp up be the one?

But , S.C. , you told me 2 days ago;

 "Also solar max is looking to have been breached already."

over on the 'has our weather changed?' thread????

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Solar Cycles Offline
#154 Posted : 03 July 2012 09:12:36(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

 

Also I did comment how I felt we hadn't reached solar max just yet, could this ramp up be the one?

But , S.C. , you told me 2 days ago;

 "Also solar max is looking to have been breached already."

over on the 'has our weather changed?' thread????

Indeed I did, but note the word "looking". My personal opinion is that we really can"t say one way or another, after all one of your super heroes did say not long ago that this cycle would be a mega high one. 

Also GW, solar max may have been breached, but that does not imply there will be no activity thereafter. 

Edited by user 03 July 2012 09:14:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#155 Posted : 03 July 2012 09:29:47(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

 

Also I did comment how I felt we hadn't reached solar max just yet, could this ramp up be the one?

But , S.C. , you told me 2 days ago;

 "Also solar max is looking to have been breached already."

over on the 'has our weather changed?' thread????

Indeed I did, but note the word "looking". My personal opinion is that we really can"t say one way or another, after all one of your super heroes did say not long ago that this cycle would be a mega high one. 

Also GW, solar max may have been breached, but that does not imply there will be no activity thereafter. 

kinda like the PDO then?

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Solar Cycles Offline
#156 Posted : 03 July 2012 11:36:41(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

 

Also I did comment how I felt we hadn't reached solar max just yet, could this ramp up be the one?

But , S.C. , you told me 2 days ago;

 "Also solar max is looking to have been breached already."

over on the 'has our weather changed?' thread????

Indeed I did, but note the word "looking". My personal opinion is that we really can"t say one way or another, after all one of your super heroes did say not long ago that this cycle would be a mega high one. 

Also GW, solar max may have been breached, but that does not imply there will be no activity thereafter. 

kinda like the PDO then?

No the PDO is  cyclical, no matter how you try to infer this has changed, the fact remains we have at least another 20 years of it remaining negative. Apart from your own little world of doom and gloom that is, where everythhing in life has reached a tipping point. 
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Steam Fog Offline
#157 Posted : 14 July 2012 08:28:20(UTC)
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Solar activity seems to have moved back into a (relatively low) steady state.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Last November remains the recent peak.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
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Devonian Online
#158 Posted : 14 July 2012 11:41:22(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Solar activity seems to have moved back into a (relatively low) steady state.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Last November remains the recent peak.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Otoh, the averaged data from the same site doesn't indicate we peaked in November.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png
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Steam Fog Offline
#159 Posted : 14 July 2012 11:49:06(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Solar activity seems to have moved back into a (relatively low) steady state.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Last November remains the recent peak.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Otoh, the averaged data from the same site doesn't indicate we peaked in November.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png



Yup, but it does look on a daily basis like the highest activity so far in SC 24 was reached in November doesn't it?
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Devonian Online
#160 Posted : 14 July 2012 11:57:55(UTC)
Devonian

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Solar activity seems to have moved back into a (relatively low) steady state.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Last November remains the recent peak.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Otoh, the averaged data from the same site doesn't indicate we peaked in November.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

Yup, but it does look on a daily basis like the highest activity so far in SC 24 was reached in November doesn't it?

Indeed.
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