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Steam Fog Offline
#181 Posted : 28 August 2012 10:35:29(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Generally sleepy August continues.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Maunder Minimum Offline
#182 Posted : 29 August 2012 12:05:44(UTC)
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The interesting point is the continuation of the Livingston and Penn observation. This was first discussed here in 2005, if I recall and then it was predicted that sunspots would become invisible by 2015 if the L&P effect continued. It has continued, so we are still on track for zero observable sunspots in a mere 3 years:

http://www.leif.org/rese...ingston%20and%20Penn.png

http://solarcycle24com.p...splay&thread=855&page=47

Cripes! Leif considers we are indeed on the cusp of a Maunder Minimum:

"We don't have any good speculations on this. I do think the L&P effect is the cause of the Maunder Minimum, but the details are not known. "

Edited by user 29 August 2012 13:10:30(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Public spending cuts now, are a result of Brown's lack of prudence as Chancellor and PM.
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Steam Fog Offline
#183 Posted : 06 September 2012 07:04:16(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Update from NASA.

"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 76 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906."

August saw a slight dip.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png
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Steam Fog Offline
#184 Posted : 14 September 2012 06:03:28(UTC)
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As with June, July and August a peak of activity at the start of the month has been followed by a dip as we approach mid month.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif
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Gavin P Online
#185 Posted : 22 September 2012 23:37:16(UTC)
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Solar activity at "very low levels"

http://www.solarham.net/

Three, just three, visible sun spots. We're almost talking solar minimum activity in the solar maximum.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ http://gavsweathervids.com/
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AIMSIR Offline
#186 Posted : 22 September 2012 23:42:28(UTC)
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Even the Sun has to take a break, sometimes.

There is some dispute as to the affects of such.

I am sure we will discover soon enough, seeing the situation as it stands.

A golden oppertunity is presented to us for observation.imo.

Edited by user 22 September 2012 23:52:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Steam Fog Offline
#187 Posted : 23 September 2012 07:25:32(UTC)
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The first week of September was relatively active (though still below last November's heights). The next two weeks have been comparatively quiet.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

So bar an end of the month resurgence (which we have seen in the last three months) it looks like September will be a further dip downwards.

http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif
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doctormog Online
#188 Posted : 23 September 2012 07:52:35(UTC)
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It's interesting how much the cycle activity prediction has been downgraded over the past few years:

Current forecast: http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif

2009: http://web.archive.org/w...images/ssn_predict_l.gif

2006: http://web.archive.org/w...images/ssn_predict_l.gif
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Steam Fog Offline
#189 Posted : 23 September 2012 08:35:50(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
It's interesting how much the cycle activity prediction has been downgraded over the past few years:

Current forecast: http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif

2009: http://web.archive.org/w...images/ssn_predict_l.gif

2006: http://web.archive.org/w...images/ssn_predict_l.gif


I can remember some years ago stories about the threat the anticipated very high solar maximum represented. Doesn't mean there might not be threats as we see increased activity, but looking different now to how it looked in 2006.

http://science.nasa.gov/...2006/10mar_stormwarning/

http://www.ucar.edu/news...eases/2006/sunspot.shtml

Edited by user 23 September 2012 08:40:54(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#190 Posted : 23 September 2012 21:07:01(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Solar activity at "very low levels"

http://www.solarham.net/

Three, just three, visible sun spots. We're almost talking solar minimum activity in the solar maximum.

Good, so ideally this means we are on for Maunder Minimum Minus as I have predicted

I prefer this chart, BTW, as it doesn't have any superimposed trend and shows how the cycle has stalled this year so far:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif
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Steam Fog Offline
#191 Posted : 29 September 2012 13:28:33(UTC)
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September looks to me like it will similar if not below August. It'll be interesting to see if October or November can produce anything close to last year.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#192 Posted : 30 September 2012 16:51:11(UTC)
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I'd still maintain that with closing on half the Arctic ocean still giving up it's accrued heat to the atmosphere I'd have much preferred a moderate Nino to plump up the temp gradient t'wixt pole and equator this autumn and not one that lessens it?

That said are we about to see the new driver rival other 'natural' climate drivers in the impacts it produces across the northern hemisphere?

How does the heat now being released across the polar region compare to the energy given up by an El Nino?

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#193 Posted : 01 October 2012 12:15:36(UTC)
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Well we need to see how the 'low solar' impacts the southern Ozone hole this year?

I take it the UV plays an important part in driving losses of ozone and any 'healing' of the hole will lead to a slackening of the circumpolars and an encroachment of the planets warmth into the coastal regions of Antarctica.....another thing to challenge the naysayers?

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Gray-Wolf Offline
#194 Posted : 01 October 2012 19:37:27(UTC)
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Sssh , SC , this is fun!

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
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Steam Fog Offline
#195 Posted : 01 October 2012 20:52:15(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Not really sure what you are talking about to be honest?

Back to the solar cycle and September shows a further reduction from August.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

Edited by user 01 October 2012 20:54:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Steam Fog Offline
#196 Posted : 03 October 2012 06:51:10(UTC)
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October update from NASA sees predicted maximum slipping from 76 to 75.

"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013."

Current smoothed cycle comparison.

http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html

October has kicked off relatively quietly.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Solar Cycles Online
#197 Posted : 03 October 2012 08:22:12(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
October update from NASA sees predicted maximum slipping from 76 to 75. "The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013." Current smoothed cycle comparison. http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html October has kicked off relatively quietly. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
It seems to start of quiet then pick uo a little mid month, before declining further later in the month.
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Steam Fog Offline
#198 Posted : 07 October 2012 07:02:29(UTC)
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First week of October has seen a downward trend.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Steam Fog Offline
#199 Posted : 19 October 2012 06:52:24(UTC)
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A bit of a recovery mid month, but overall looking about the same or a little weaker than September. Nothing like October 2011 at this point.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#200 Posted : 26 October 2012 11:37:11(UTC)
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The NOAA number is currently on 77 for October, so a drop on September and it (tentatively) looks like the closing days of the month will be quiet, so probably the second lowest number of the last 14 months. This adds to hopes that cycle peak is past

Edited by user 26 October 2012 11:38:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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