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Last Kent Webcam 7-10 day forecast - Wednesday 19th September 2012.
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Gusty Offline
#121 Posted : 02 February 2012 21:45:14(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

Updated forecast available http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwlrRlX4Ce0&feature=plcp&context=C3eedc01UDOEgsToPDskLHlKZ9XWKMedE5het7YhfE

Please thumbs up if you like as it does help !

Three bites at the cherry then Gusty, thats exactly how I see it. 

Bite One: The showers tomorrow will be hit and miss.  I reckon 5cms are possible towards the east Kent Massif (Challock-Paddlesworth) because the showers will be slow moving. But, most places will get nothing and a few spots may get a dusting as you say. 

Bite 2 is the "Dutch trough" - hmm, very difficult to call but perhaps our best shot at 2cms or so. 

Third bite is the stalling front from the west - its such an atypical set up that my feeling is it will stall and sink south before getting here.  So it could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 out of 3 by Sunday midday!!  Chances of something decent at 25%.  Chances of a dusting 75%.  Chances of nothing 25%.

WI

Cheers WI. Even if the models can't agree on the evolution at this stage (perfectly normal in this setup). It's reassuring that you agree with my thoughts tonight. Thanks.

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Whether Idle Offline
#122 Posted : 02 February 2012 22:22:46(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

Updated forecast available http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwlrRlX4Ce0&feature=plcp&context=C3eedc01UDOEgsToPDskLHlKZ9XWKMedE5het7YhfE

Please thumbs up if you like as it does help !

Three bites at the cherry then Gusty, thats exactly how I see it. 

Bite One: The showers tomorrow will be hit and miss.  I reckon 5cms are possible towards the east Kent Massif (Challock-Paddlesworth) because the showers will be slow moving. But, most places will get nothing and a few spots may get a dusting as you say. 

Bite 2 is the "Dutch trough" - hmm, very difficult to call but perhaps our best shot at 2cms or so. 

Third bite is the stalling front from the west - its such an atypical set up that my feeling is it will stall and sink south before getting here.  So it could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 out of 3 by Sunday midday!!  Chances of something decent at 25%.  Chances of a dusting 75%.  Chances of nothing 25%.

WI

Cheers WI. Even if the models can't agree on the evolution at this stage (perfectly normal in this setup). It's reassuring that you agree with my thoughts tonight. Thanks.

The 18z has us buried.  Wait til Saturday before having any confidence in the stalling front option.  Good night!

With model watching its sometimes as much about forgetting to remember as it is remembering to forget things
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North Downs Man Offline
#123 Posted : 02 February 2012 23:06:29(UTC)
North Downs Man

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Location: Dover
Interesting summations, Gusty and WI. Excellent service, Gusty. I think you are both perhaps erring on the conservative side about snow amounts IOBY from "Cherry Bites" 1 and 2.

As for the Atlantic depression, it will be fascinating to see just how far east it does get. Whether we end up with snow IOBY or not personally I will be pleased for those that do get what they are hoping for. From a meteorology perspective this is going to be one interesting weekend and I look forward to checking out the snow's progress Eastwards.
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Jonesy Offline
#124 Posted : 04 February 2012 10:41:57(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: North Kent
North Kent
Location:51.353, 0.559
Altitude:105 m above mean sea level

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Whether Idle Offline
#125 Posted : 04 February 2012 11:19:33(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Gusty - You reckon up to 25 cms Blimey!  Id be very happy with that but I reckon 15cms max.  

 Hope youre right...What's 10cms between friends

With model watching its sometimes as much about forgetting to remember as it is remembering to forget things
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North Downs Man Offline
#126 Posted : 04 February 2012 14:24:13(UTC)
North Downs Man

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Would be truly something if you are right, Gusty. Fair play, you nailed the small amounts of snow from "Cherry Bites" 1 and 2 pretty well. We shall see...
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Jonesy Offline
#127 Posted : 04 February 2012 14:37:27(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: North Kent

Steve is busy today so I'm sure he will reply to you when he can guys and explain why upto and I stress upto 25cm could be possible.

15-25cm is a bracket, Over the Hills 15cm+ is highly possible, often or not myself I see a good 5cm more than meto/bbc forecast.

Enjoy the event

North Kent
Location:51.353, 0.559
Altitude:105 m above mean sea level

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North Downs Man Offline
#128 Posted : 04 February 2012 15:39:10(UTC)
North Downs Man

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

Steve is busy today so I'm sure he will reply to you when he can guys and explain why upto and I stress upto 25cm could be possible.

15-25cm is a bracket, Over the Hills 15cm+ is highly possible, often or not myself I see a good 5cm more than meto/bbc forecast.

Enjoy the event

 

Second depression on Monday earmarked as possible snow event also.  But let's not get greedy...

Edited by user 04 February 2012 15:40:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Gusty Offline
#129 Posted : 06 February 2012 22:27:26(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 6,881

Updated thoughts for the next few days are here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u--3U84cJdI

Edited by user 06 February 2012 22:28:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#130 Posted : 08 February 2012 21:12:16(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Evening crew.

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather prospects in Kent for the next 7 days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFShcVj-VQg

Edited by user 08 February 2012 21:13:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Jonesy Offline
#131 Posted : 10 February 2012 01:38:45(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: North Kent

Gusty your Inbox is full again mate....Just incase you are needed by anyone

North Kent
Location:51.353, 0.559
Altitude:105 m above mean sea level

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Gusty Offline
#132 Posted : 12 February 2012 21:40:09(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Good evening. Here are my updated thoughts for the week ahead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8_eNUXdt0g

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#133 Posted : 19 February 2012 21:13:17(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 6,881

Updated thoughts for Kent this week are here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyYqEI8HKjM

Edited by user 19 February 2012 21:35:57(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#134 Posted : 22 February 2012 20:41:37(UTC)
Gusty

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Posts: 6,881

Evening

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather in Kent in the next 7 days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhPYL7sJ86Q

Edited by user 22 February 2012 20:42:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#135 Posted : 26 February 2012 22:04:18(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Evening.

Here are my Sunday updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the week ahead.

Click vid for details

www.kentweathersolutions.com

Edited by user 26 February 2012 22:06:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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idj20 Online
#136 Posted : 26 February 2012 22:20:56(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone
Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Evening.

Here are my Sunday updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the week ahead.

Click vid for details

www.kentweathersolutions.com



Ta for the update. As you know, I do take a sneaky peek in your website in the morning, just to see if it matches my thoughts.
The other thing I am wondering is this, is Jonesy okay? As he has been quiet of late in here.

Ian D J, Folkestone Harbour.

Predicting the weather is like making love to a beautiful woman - if you don't keep on top of things, or come up short, you might encounter hostile conditions later.
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Gusty Offline
#137 Posted : 26 February 2012 22:34:18(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Evening.

Here are my Sunday updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the week ahead.

Click vid for details

www.kentweathersolutions.com

Ta for the update. As you know, I do take a sneaky peek in your website in the morning, just to see if it matches my thoughts. The other thing I am wondering is this, is Jonesy okay? As he has been quiet of late in here.

Hey Ian...Thanks.

Jonesy is good thanks... he is busy beavering away behind the scenes at KWS. (It wouldn't exist without him TBH)

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#138 Posted : 29 February 2012 20:20:07(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Good evening

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather prospects in Kent during the week ahead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ob5X57a2Yg

Edited by user 29 February 2012 20:20:47(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#139 Posted : 04 March 2012 20:56:44(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Evening.

Here are my updated thoughts for the weather in Kent this week.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBA1lO_Vxbc

Edited by user 04 March 2012 20:57:30(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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Gusty Offline
#140 Posted : 07 March 2012 21:53:39(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,881

Good evening.

Here are my midweek updated thoughts for the weather in Kent for the week ahead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDr3ED6D8v4

Edited by user 07 March 2012 21:54:55(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Steve....Folkestone, Kent



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