Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas

Originally Posted by: Essan

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Originally Posted by: rayjp

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas

Originally Posted by: Essan

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Blimey, that's harsh!  I thought this particular thread had a bit more leeway than the MO thread for humour etc!

I don't think a lot of people *get* YD's humour!

GP on Netweather has added another post, well worth a read as alway's

This is not too far removed from last November's pattern except that the mean ridge is placed much further east this time and we are stuck on the 'wrong' side for cold.

Remembering also that the polar stratosphere is running anomalously cold right now, and the likely migration of the polar vortex towards the Canadian Arctic during December.

So in summary, the very strong mountain torque event and consequent sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum definately spices things up in the medium term, although I suspect the default troughing to our west and the developing ridge over Scandinavia will not be far off a return in December as the main feature of our weather.

Full post and pictures here

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Oh, now these are fun. Take a look at the October 2010 ones, which forecast December 2010 to be above - yes, above - average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif 

I am sure there are other hilarious ones for other months

The CFS pressure charts look terrible for cold at the moment... but fear not, I've seen them hastily adding a bit of northern blocking at the last minute several times this year (particularly during the summer )

There is an interesting post on Netweather (from Lorenzo) that points out how NAO is dropping rapidly in the recent ESRL/PSD ensemble model output. Then he writes that our current MJO state, if extrapoloted (a dangerous game, assuming similar trends to times past), places us in a 2010 run of events only starting a month later on.

Perhaps January will be record breakingly cold

Yeah, we can all dream... its just a possibility, as are so many things in this world, like me owning a koenigsegg Agera R