Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.
White Christmas 2011
TWO Have one also...
And North and South currently 27%
http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
Me & Gusty go with 10% Chance for SE at present
Edited by user 06 November 2011 12:57:46(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif
I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.
Calm down! It's only a model output Gavin was simply pointing out that they do not show the cold they were showing this time last year. Fact. He has no expressed any opinion on whether he would like it to prove correct or not.
Edited by user 06 November 2011 16:14:49(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be cold for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a mild ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a cold winter but there we go that is just imo!
Shows I think, just how difficult this one looks to call atm
As to the "Fact" if someone consistently and repeatedly responds to anything remotely mild or dry by going
And then repeatedly (ad nauseum) questioning anything which looks remotely cold (and I admit the Madden/Express point was fair, but I got it after the first post), then I may just may draw a conclusion about which direction he's going in.
I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).
Edited by user 06 November 2011 17:10:24(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Yes I think a strong La Nina is now simply not going to happen,i'm doubting we'll see even a moderate event so it looks like ENSO will be weak.
As far as the Strat is concerned im a bit puzzled where this talk of a warming event is coming from,the only indicator i can think of is Ozone levels over the Pole which are,the last time i checked,below average not above?
I think ozone levels have been increasing recently - especially over N Canada - possibly as a result of the early snowfalls in the US (which are far South enough to reflect decent levels of sunlight back & ozone is created through a photochemical reaction). We also have a decent snowcover across parts of central Asia (relative to the average) - which can feed into the equation. There's no sign yet of a temperature increase in the stratosphere though - very average there at the moment.
Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?
Weather Onlines take for the end of Autumn and into December
Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011
Settled mid-November
'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885) There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.
The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.
The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.
Full outlook for the first 3 weeks of December can be found here
Edited by user 07 November 2011 13:39:51(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Looks as though WEATHERONLINE are forecasting another wintry run up to Christmas - For third year running.
Ok your name is not mentioned.Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.I should delete your post.However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.Post on topic.