It's mostly snowless right now....that will be changing.
Brutally cold weekend ahead though. -9c a high for Hamilton tomorrow and a low predicted of -15c for somepoint between Sat & Sun night. As cold as i'll have felt this season and on par with the brief blip on Jan 3. This spell of cold and snow will end abruptly on Monday as warmer air turns the snow to rain and temps recover. Unlike most of this winter though so far, indications are that the milder air will be a temporary affair allowing colder conditions to sweep in by next mid-week and maybe more snow?
You usually get a modified version of what we get a few days later...so be prepared!
Well, a big pattern change is about to affect us all in N America. http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.850.html
tells the story...what is that big patch of purple coming my way...ah....
Having dodged anything resembling winter so far, it looks as if it is time to be properly reminded it is indeed January in Calgary. We had a quick taster the other day with an inch of snow falling and kind of whitening the brown grass. The cold plunge that is to come will not give us much snow - an inch or two followed by upslope flow flurries, but the main story will be the temps - currently sitting at a respectable 0c, by Monday -25c will be the ticket. Staying indoors may also be the ticket - glad I can work from home and do not have to commute!
July 2011 - June 2012 StatsElevation: 1084mLatitude: 51° 6' NWarmest Temperature: 30.4c 29/08/11Coldest Temperature: -21.5c 20/11/11Days with thunderstorms: 4Days with rain falling: 20Days with snow falling: 15Days with snow lying: 48Maximum snow depth: 6" (15cm)Current snow depth 0-1" (patchy)
Not only here have a snowless mild winter but it doing badly over Toronto too. Many mild days and little ice days and virtually poor snowfall amount to Trace as the best.
Edited by user 14 January 2012 09:15:23(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Well the much hyped pattern change is in the reliable timeframe at last. The upcoming regime was what was forecast as the default pattern in many of the LRFs this winter, but only now in mid-January is it setting in.
As Peter says -20s will be norm for Calgary from Monday onwards after some snow covers the ground on Sunday. Further east around the Great Lakes it looks like the cold will come and go with milder spells inbetween.
Interestingly though, there are signs that it may be a 10 day cold spell before a reversion to what we've seen for much of this winter - at least Joe Lundberg suggests as much http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/growing-cold-to/60232 Henry M meanwhile is expecting the cold pattern to embed itself come February. Take your pick.
But staying within the reliable I'd like to see a decent snowstorm for the eastern Great Lakes - see if we can't put an end to Stewart's relative snow drought this winter (that said I wouldn't mind seeing a trace of snow here either!). Unfortunately the next storm early next week looks like setting its sights on the western Great Lakes so Chicago rather than Toronto for 10-15cm of snow.
It's snowing in Vancouver right now and there's a snowfall warning out for 5cm in the city and 10-15 in higher, inland surrounding areas - be worth looking at the webcams later! http://www.katkam.ca/
Have a good weekend everyone!
Quick Saturday update - Currently -11c in Toronto, -8c in Hamilton and -9c here in Dundas. Windchill has been steady at -15c, in sunshine for the most part, but i must say like Peter's comments, it's a major reminder stepping outdoors that this is Ontario and it is January! It will be a 'gentle' reminder no doubt to you Peter when the Artic train stops off at Calgary for a delayed visit! Not sure a whole load of folk actually know what -25c feels like, i'm sure you'll convey the outcome given the opportunity.
Back here, some snow and ice reports from Environment Canada on the initial storm front and then lake effect precip that brought this stinging cold spell to Southern Ontario. As you can see parts of the Niagara pennisula done very well out of this :
Location snowfall amount (cm)Ottawa airport 10 plus ice pellets/freezing rain20 km E Ottawa 20-25Russell (se Ottawa) 16Cornwall 20-25 plus ice pellets/frzg rain Franktown 20 plus ice pellets/frzg rainDrummond centre (nw Smiths Falls) 10 plus icepellets/frzg rain Kemptville 10-15 (estimated)Brockville 10 (estimated) plus frzg rainPort Colborne - crystal beach 10-15 (estimated)St Catharines (S end) 18
In Dundas, like most parts including Toronto Pearson we've just got enough snow to white the ground, trace to 1cm. Slightly disappointing given the initial optimism from some quarters earlier in the week of a snowfest in the squalls. As you say Graeme, looking out for storm posibilities going forward, surely at some point we'll grab a proper snowevent before the end of January 'IF' the storm keep coming.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend folks.
Toronto so far only got a T on their snow on the ground listing for this month, very poor month so far Stewart. The lowest snowfall depth was 1cm in Jan 1988.
Head west for snow! I'll be keeping an eye on developments in Vancouver and Seattle over the next few days...
Whilst it looks very cold for Toronto at -16C currently (5AM) - there doesnt seem to be a lot of snow in the forecast if any:http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/caon0696?ref=topnav_fourteenday_savedcityGoing up to +5C with rain tomorrow!?? - Must be frustrating for Torontonians who are waiting to see Lake Effect snow!
Edited by user 15 January 2012 10:57:09(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Must be frustrating for Torontonians who are waiting to see Lake Effect snow!
Toronto does not usually receive much in the way of lake effect snow as it's not in any of the 'normal' lake effect snowbelts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Great_Lakes_Snowbelt_EPA_fr.png (see here for a summary http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto#Winter_and_snowfall). 'Alberta Clippers' provide frequent light snow events for the GTA while the holy grail that you will hear Stewart and others who live locally refer to is the 'Colorado Low' tracking south of Lake Ontario - from which you will get snow from the storm itself enhanced with an easterly fetch off the lake. Unfortunately that's not on the cards right now. [Edit: Then again! http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on]
However it is cold from coast to coast - the first time this winter I recall seeing all the major Canadian cities from Vancouver to St John's below freezing. http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html
Meanwhile as we've been watching winter is arriving in style in Calgary - good shot at cracking -30c midweek? Edmonton is just about a certainty - in fact -30c might be the high come midweek! http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Edited by user 15 January 2012 12:35:37(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Down to -17c last night in Dundas/Hamilton, w/c was -22c, by far and away the coldest of the winter and then i awake thinking that was it for this wee cold period, turn on the tele and internet and thought again! If there was was Facebook style 'like' button this particular paragraph from EC would get double helpings :
A change in the track may have a large effect on how much rain or snow, or both a particular region could receive. If this low follows a track further south than currently expected, there will be potential for an accumulating snow event along with significantly lower temperatures than currently forecast on Tuesday for much of Southern Ontario near the Lower Great Lakes as well.Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation.
That is code for we don't have a clue and so usual health warnings must be attached and ramping reeled in (a tiny bit!). Henry on Accu has the main snow development well to the North of the GTA and thus rain is the order. I'm keeping a very close eye on this as Graeme you said, apart from being snow starved this winter, we're winter storm starved also. Any accumulating snowfall will be welcome!
Keep you posted.
Temperatures all to hell in Calgary, forecasts suggest lower than -30C when before just down to -25C. - But the Chinook will win!
Calgary's Chinook commeth. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourteenday/caab0049?ref=qlink_lt_14dayToronto looks like it will miss out from snow again, - from -14C to -12C, now to -4C and up to 2C this afternoon and 7C tomorrow with rain...!!
Toronto's forecast from Weather Network.http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/caon0696?ref=topnav_fourteenday_savedcityMust have been a frustrating season for Torontonians. Ottawa/Montreal is dowing better with regards to cold weather! I spoke to a friend in Halifax and he said there has been snow but it has not lasted for more than a day! No real prolonged cold in the east and Maritimes, same for New York. What ever happened to the Lake Effect snow?England isn't the only country snow-starved!
Edited by user 16 January 2012 11:30:21(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
A few model runs on and still no definative track for this lp entering Southern Ontario later this evening. TWN and to some extent EC not going for a favourable outcome for snow in the GTA this morning, maybe some wet snow for some locales as the storm exits tomorrow night. Still cold this morning at -5c currently and whether the snow comes or not in the next 24hrs, the outlook beyond Wednesday is for more snow opportunities and the temps remaining at or below 0c.
As for the Lake effect snow Tally, i posted a rundown of some fairly substantial totals created by Lake effect snow last Thursday and Friday mostly confined to the regular lake effect snowbelts as per Graeme's helpful link the other day. It is true to say that the first 6wks of winter have been very stop start for most of the eastern 3rd of N America. Pick out a location like New York and you see virtually no snow since their shock 2 inches in late October. However other eastern states and locations within New York State have had substantial snow events typical of winter, just nothing sustained. As for Montreal & Ottawa, their northern location compared to the GTA/Hamilton/Toronto will always help create more options for cold and snowy conditions, however Montreal for one is well behind in it's snow accumulation totals compared to a 'normal' winter and only just better than Ottawa in that regard. The GTA incidentally just had it's coldest weekend of the 2011/12 winter so not all doom and gloom.
Western Canada taking a total beating this Monday from the wintery conditions, even normally wet Vancouver getting snowed in today with 5cm at the Harbour forecast and 10cm higher up. TWN predicting some spots in BC/AB catch 25cm before the snowy low is done. The cold remains once the snow fizzles out for most the week.
Edited by user 16 January 2012 14:58:47(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Yes interesting times indeed for the Pacific Northwest: both the Vancouver and Seattle webcams showing snow this morning (their time) with the prospect of more to come today and potentially something rather special midweek!
Thanks for this, it's a beautiful picture the katkam captures.
On the same page lower down I especially liked the " Youtube A day in Vancouver" Time Lapse, of the weather, particulary the electrical storm.
Yes, it's a great webcam, been one of my favourites for years - plus I've walked over the bridge in the shot so it brings back memories of happy times in Canada!
Distinctly chilly through western Canada and the Prairies this morning: Calgary and Edmonton both sitting at -30c. Saskatoon the coldest of the big cities right now at -38c with a wind chill of -45c.
Had a text from a friend this morning in the Heritage, Shawnessy area in south Calgary and she said it was -36C with a wind chill of -49C. Brr...!!
Don't worry Chinook will be on it's way, not the shopping Mall but the winds lolol.
Crazy to believe that it was only a week ago Calgary was experiencing temperatures of +14 or 15C.
Back here at home perhaps this record breaking day could be followed by much colder weather. I remember on 17th Jan 2005 and Jiries will confirm this that in Toronto it was 17C (record breaking warmth) that day and then within a few days it was -18C with heavy snow from 20th-22nd January 2005. Remember Jiries!?
We must not be fooled by this unusually mild weather in England!
Wednesday evening post for an update on winter's on/off relationship with Southern Ontario. Yesterday we saw the milder option take hold, so no snow and eventually a high temp of +10c/50f in rain, around 17mm fell - not pleasent! Further north even struggled also, Ottawa had freezing rain and major ice problems for a couple hours and in Montreal, originally pencilled in for a storm of all snow....it turned to a thaw for a couple hours according to Brett on Accuweather. Today, we're back to the weekend's conditions of occasional snow flurries and bitterly cold conditions. Currently -7c in a w/c of -11c.
Of interest is the events shaping up for the next 72hrs or so. Firstly, tomorrow most of the GTA and Southern Ontario will see probably the first cold clipper system enter since last winter and distribute anything from 2-5cm of snow across a wide area. Perhaps, but not quite (proper snowfall!) Then as the cold continues a storm system out of the states is currently forecast to track along the U.S./Canadian border on Fri night into Saturday. This is one storm currently that i'd love to see track further north just like it's brother did yesterday as it would put most of Southern Ontario including the Golden Horseshoe on 'proper snowfall alert' territory. At the minute EC and Accuweather have us in snow for Saturday but between 2-8cm (8cm being the higher end of the scale). However, if it tracks further north then the potential is there for bigger snowtotals and proper wintery weather upto 15cm (6 inches). Definately watching it closely.
Further West in Canada and the brutal cold continues for Peter in Calgary, temps not much better by what i can gather than -30c today. In Vancouver Metroland, not used to such extreme cold they saw -7c on their morning commute......for a sea-level city that is fairly remarkable snow did fall during Wednesday in Downtown but not as much as affected parts of Vancouver Island enhanced by the sea and also of course the newsworthy snows that Seattle saw today, maybe upto a foot in some parts of that usually snowless American city!
I bet right now the folks at the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics are sorry the event wasn't this February!
Snow causing major problems this afternoon across Southern Ontario and in particular around here in Hamilton dozens of road traffic collisons, i think people may have forgotten how to drive in this weather? Here's the latest situation from thespec.com - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/657550--blizzard-drops-white-curtain-on-local-roads.
Snow has fallen heavily in bands as it sweeps across Southern Ont. looking at the latest radar the worst of the conditions do seem to be in a line from London-Hamilton out to Niagara. The QEW in St.Catharine's is said to be impassable in some spots more due to ice i suspect. Hamilton has a snow squall warning currently in force since 1429est from EC for these conditions. Radar shows the weather clearing the city area by about 1600/1630, Toronto so far hasn't seen the intensity in the bands that we've seen here.
Probably a good 2 inches outside, will try at some point to post some pics if i get the chance. More to come on Saturday!!!