I agree with you that is exactly what Dinner is doing.
My statements are far from trolling, they are pretty much the truth, just look at the GFS charts and look at the recent loss of ice.
When I say it could commence next week I mean the outgassing of possibly 1400 GT of methane
The first few outcomes you have noted are highly unlikely as there hasn't been anything leading up to them recently, but with regards the methane several astronomical plumes have appeared in the arcti ocean: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120422.html
What more the GFS charts look extremely cyclonic with a low pressure with an 985 centre right to the southwest of the ice cap and I would advice you to look at the temperatures because they are quite high : http://62.89.145.4/charts/12_150_arctic850.png?cb=656
Woah that's a 100K loss in sea ice and temperatures are expected to increase in the Arctic.
Regardless of what you skeptics say, we are heading towards a Runaway Global Warming now and it could commence next week
At this point it is now just beginning.
First the polar low ravages the sea ice reducing it to zero.
Second the methane hydrates release a huge amount of methane.
And finally everyone on earth is cooked within a day and earth becomes Venus
Dinner, I assume that you are only voicing your fears here? Do remember that when people speak of 'rapid' change they are measuring it against the normal natural processes. The fears you express may occur but almost certainly over decades not days. Of course in geological terms that is breakneck speed.
There's no need to panic - and indeed no point in doing so.
Why is everyone so fast to judge when someone is alarmed but tollerates the folk that pooh ,pooh any worries science brings to us?
Why is everyone so fast to judge when someone is alarmed
I think we're trying to reflect the reality aren't we, Gray-Wolf? Neither unduly pessimistic not unduly optimistic - despite what certain now suddenly quiet contributors may think to the contrary.
Focus now should be on where we finish this month - my money is still on getting close to or just under 3.5m.
The second point of longer term interest is how this will affect 2013.
I just don't think random extrapolations help, GW! Mankind is in deep sh*t, but over a timescale of many years. Let's identify the issues and attempt to deal with them as they pop up. It is possible that the issue of human overpopulation of Earth will actually solved by climate collapse - but we ain't there yet! Right now, we can still advise people to stop being boy-racers and for heaven's sake wear rubber jonnies!
It is logical to say that the climate collapse and advanced warming would solve the overpoppulation problems on earth (with regards rising sea levels, more storms, droughts etc), but should runaway global warming ensue there is a chance that earth may never flourish with life again in the long term.
What events would ensue if large amounts of methane were released and if so would it take decades for the earths temperature to escelate into runaway global warming.
Edited by user 06 September 2012 18:02:44(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
That's not the case, Dinner. The Earth will re-establish balance eventually - remember that CO2 levels have been much higher in the past. The point is that it would be desperately and likely terminally unpleasant for the vast majority of human beings but the planet will survive.
Maybe we should leave a message in a a bottle somewhere saying "Don't push CO2 above 400ppm" so the next human civilisation doesn't make the same mistakes.
I'd be more concerned about some of the bitterness...
This is the other 'throwaway truism' is it not? The earth will be just fine (don't fret about that D!) it's just us poor sops (and the species we will take with us) that need to take care?
I've no doubt that not only will humanity make it through this but also our current technology...just not with the numbers we have now (an instant fix for CO2 emissions!).
To me it has to be how we manage that 'die back' of humanity? Where we are headed (climate and culturally) does not allow for the numbers we have to feed/clothe/power today. Hard fact , get over it.
Edited by user 06 September 2012 18:55:33(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
I was going to say this justifies it's own thread but I think we've been down that road before. Maybe another try?
This has a "Lovelock-ian" feel to it and it precisely why some here have been trumpeting our concerns for some time. If indeed we get to a point where there are 'winners' and 'losers', perhaps this is better expressed as 'losers' and 'bigger losers'.
Let's try another thread rather than side-tracking this one.
NSIDC extent for 5th Sept = 3.51
I would expect an even lower figure in 2013. Even if extent manages to return to near average by March/April, much of the ice is likely to be thinner than normal.
Lets just put it on the back burner for a week? Then we can happily say 'not this time'? I (as you know) do have concerns about the shelf sea permafrosts and the alarming rate that we have seen them destabilise (10m features in 2010 to over a km in 2011?) so I'm not the man to give the 'calm down dear ,calm down' to!
We will have our CH4 updates ,and if not? then worry!!!
EDIT: Talking of 'worry' , if prof W. (newsnight) is close in his calcs then are we not past 2c warming now? (pipeline) And ,in a few years when we have the whole ocean to go at, is it not a 3c to 10c picture we see (without our CH4 buddies)?
Edited by user 06 September 2012 20:50:22(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Yesterday corrected = 3,676,406 against 3,614,219
Today's uncorrected value: 3,601,875
Edited by user 07 September 2012 11:32:16(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Watched a nice documentary on the Arctic Ice on iPlayer last night
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00g639s/Oceans_Arctic_Ocean/