getting away from 'how hot will it be at the weekend', there is an ens theme week 2 for the lowest heights in the arctic to work their way in a clockwise direction towards greenland. this will involve a consequential push of energy for the atlantic which probably reflects the ens lowering temps for that period. thereafter, although beyond current modelling T384, one would expect a more traditional +NAO set up to exist for the end of the month.
Sounds positive nick, I am hoping for a good first week of September and with a positive NAO you would hope for a settled southern half of the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gifThat should feel like a blow dryer here. Very unusual setup that.It looks a little odd.
The winds will be quite strong tomorrow;
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/08/14/basis12/ukuk/uv10/12081515_1412.gif
45 knot (51.8mph) sustained winds south of Ireland - impressive for a summer low
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/08/14/basis12/ukuk/uv10/12081603_1412.gif
Winds of 25-30 knots (28.8-34.5mph) affect the SW
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/08/14/basis12/ukuk/uv10/12081609_1412.gif
15 knot (17.3mph) winds across pretty much all of England and Wales - not all that much but notable with the trees in full leaf.
The bigger wind threat comes from convective gusts should conditions set up right, but the magnitude to which this looks possible has dropped quite a bit from what it looked like a few days ago IMO.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=0
Run this through and you can see that this high resolution model gives Dorset a large amount of rain tomorrow (about 50mm I reckon) - this shows that a risk of extreme precipitation does still remain.
The following day is shown to bring a few showers, with rain then arriving overnight into Friday. The positioning of that rain is still open to much debate and so anyone with planned activities from around the Solent region westward is going to have to be prepared for the forecast to chop and change a fair bit.
If you click on "Précipitations conv." you can see the amount of convective precipitation modelled. As you'd expect, its less in the far south - but still appreciable - and then it really ramps up as the front moves north across areas that have seen a good bit of solar heating. Rather like GFS, it indicates the most energy to be moving in two areas, one across Wales and the other clipping the SE (GFS has the latter a bit further west, though).
I'm not sure what "Rafales Max" is but I think it might be the maximum gust speed, in which case it shows a peak of around 45km/h in the east and 55 in the west.
Edited by user 14 August 2012 20:45:07(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Yep, the heat's really on on the GFS 18z run - Could see 32c in the far south-east on Sunday.
Edited by user 14 August 2012 22:49:56(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Pretty impressive plume - uppers of 20c+ just clipping the far SE
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012081418/gfs-1-114.png?18
Southern Ireland looks in line for the worse of the rain.
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/08/14/basis18/ukuk/rsum/12081600_1418.gif
Possibly higher than that, and quite possibly temps close to 30c much further west. Also worth noting that it's projected to be very humid too. It will feel extremely uncomfortable, particularly for sleeping. LOVE IT
It's been very warm the last few nights here, and it's even warmer tonight. It's still 19c here and feels every inch of it. It'll feel a lot more humid come the weekend
Yeah.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png
Just occasionally I am glad we don't get the same weather as the SE because that would be intolerable without air con - Imagine how much heat would be stored up from the daytime as well indoors.
Edited by user 14 August 2012 22:58:09(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Closing