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July Convection and Thunder Thread
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Charmhills Offline
#1 Posted : 01 July 2012 21:42:56(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Loughborough, North Leic, East Midlands.

Hi folks;

BBC weather talking about heavy showers/thunderstorms developing tomorrow behind the front during tomorrow afternoon for Central and Western areas.


Duane.




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GIBBY Offline
#2 Posted : 01 July 2012 21:52:02(UTC)
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Location: Radstock Bath

Think this thread could fill up very quickly before we go far into the week.

Martin G
Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton & Radstock Weather Website

Now includes a page of links to the latest charts from GFS, UKMO, ECM and GEM plus the latest Bracknell Fax Charts
Don't Forget you can view my Daily Weather Reports and Summaries at 08:00 and 19:00GMT on my website. Go To Home Page and follow link to 'Model Analysis'.


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Weatherfan2 Offline
#3 Posted : 01 July 2012 22:15:30(UTC)
Weatherfan2

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I heard an almighty rumble of my stomach a few minutes ago, but I suppose that isn't the type of convection we're thinking of. Tomorrow's chances in my part of England seem to have flown away into the ether again, while Ireland seems to again have 1000j/kg of CAPE stuck to it despite the fact it's meant to be the least thundery part of the British Isles. Piff.

Edited by user 01 July 2012 22:16:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

2010: -11.0°C (20/12) / 26.6°C (23/05) / 3 thunderstorms
2011: -5.3°C (29/01) / 26.6°C (27/06) / 1 thunderstorm
2012: -7.3°C (08/02) / 25.8°C (24/05) / 1 thunderstorm
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nsrobins Offline
#4 Posted : 02 July 2012 08:13:29(UTC)
nsrobins

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Moderate surface temperatures and low CAPE will be offset by some cool uppers later this week which once again presents the chance of sturdy convection around the low that seems to only trundle very slowly away.
I suppose the opportunity of some decent convective action (as illustrated so vividly last Thursday) somewhat moderates what is otherwise a very poor, miserable summer so far.

Denmead, South Hampshire
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Gaz Offline
#5 Posted : 02 July 2012 22:59:29(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Moderate surface temperatures and low CAPE will be offset by some cool uppers later this week which once again presents the chance of sturdy convection around the low that seems to only trundle very slowly away.
I suppose the opportunity of some decent convective action (as illustrated so vividly last Thursday) somewhat moderates what is otherwise a very poor, miserable summer so far.



Oh yes. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

 

Gary, Torquay, Devon. 85 Meters / 279 Feet ASL


Contact us - twomoderationteam@gmail.com


Thunderstorms in 2012: 11th August 10:30pm. bright Lightning - Deep Bass Thunder
Thunderstorms in 2012: 28th June 2:00am From Spainish Plume. 5 sec lightning flashes
Thunderstorms (Flickering Lightning) in 2012: 26th May 2:30 From Spainish Plume
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Charmhills Offline
#6 Posted : 03 July 2012 15:46:21(UTC)
Charmhills

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Conditions should be ripe tomorrow for heavy, slow moving thundery downpours and warm/humid in the east to.


Duane.




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nsrobins Offline
#7 Posted : 03 July 2012 16:52:31(UTC)
nsrobins

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I think Friday could be a big day for the southwest and W Midlands.

Denmead, South Hampshire
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Charmhills Offline
#8 Posted : 03 July 2012 17:00:11(UTC)
Charmhills

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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

I think Friday could be a big day for the southwest and W Midlands.

Yes watches out for that.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html


Duane.




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Gaz Offline
#9 Posted : 03 July 2012 19:34:00(UTC)
Gaz

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Location: Torquay Devon
Gary, Torquay, Devon. 85 Meters / 279 Feet ASL


Contact us - twomoderationteam@gmail.com


Thunderstorms in 2012: 11th August 10:30pm. bright Lightning - Deep Bass Thunder
Thunderstorms in 2012: 28th June 2:00am From Spainish Plume. 5 sec lightning flashes
Thunderstorms (Flickering Lightning) in 2012: 26th May 2:30 From Spainish Plume
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Weatherfan2 Offline
#10 Posted : 03 July 2012 23:43:26(UTC)
Weatherfan2

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Location: Buxton, England

No talk of storms tomorrow then.

Seems to be a lot of CAPE around like 900j/kgm here but no Convective Outlook on UKWW and nothing here and nothing from the BBC. Another fail I presume. Guuhhhh. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gaz Go to Quoted Post


Looks a bit Sparky for Friday

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/png/tmp/CTEST13413440316780.png

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/png/tmp/CTEST13413441317331.png

 

 

In the latest GFS runs CAPE has been severely restricted to the SW of England, with virtually naff all for the midlands and further north. One must wisen up to the fact that anything more than a few days away will inevitably be downgraded. 

 

Edited by user 03 July 2012 23:46:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

2010: -11.0°C (20/12) / 26.6°C (23/05) / 3 thunderstorms
2011: -5.3°C (29/01) / 26.6°C (27/06) / 1 thunderstorm
2012: -7.3°C (08/02) / 25.8°C (24/05) / 1 thunderstorm
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Charmhills Offline
#11 Posted : 04 July 2012 08:09:34(UTC)
Charmhills

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I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy/thundery downpours develop later today in this warm and humid airmass across Central and Eastern areas.


Duane.




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nsrobins Offline
#12 Posted : 04 July 2012 08:17:46(UTC)
nsrobins

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Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy/thundery downpours develop later today in this warm and humid airmass across Central and Eastern areas.

Indeed. I'll mention possibilities when parameters look significant, but one should never rule out activity on other days and today is an example as Duane highlights.
High WBPTs in the 15-17C range across the SE and E Midlands today in a humid environment. I see a nose of higher CAPE nudging across the Channel later so the SE may get clipped by something, plus local developments from early afternoon up the spine of the UK should a small-scale convergence or instability axis develop. I confess I haven't really looked at today in detail as my mind is fixed on Friday's potential which I see as the more significant at the moment.

Edit: Had another quick look. The N Midlands, E Anglia and the NE could get clobbered on Friday.

Edited by user 04 July 2012 08:23:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Denmead, South Hampshire
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Arcus Online
#13 Posted : 04 July 2012 08:29:22(UTC)
Arcus

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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy/thundery downpours develop later today in this warm and humid airmass across Central and Eastern areas.

Indeed. I'll mention possibilities when parameters look significant, but one should never rule out activity on other days and today is an example as Duane highlights.
High WBPTs in the 15-17C range across the SE and E Midlands today in a humid environment. I see a nose of higher CAPE nudging across the Channel later so the SE may get clipped by something, plus local developments from early afternoon up the spine of the UK should a small-scale convergence or instability axis develop. I confess I haven't really looked at today in detail as my mind is fixed on Friday's potential which I see as the more significant at the moment.

Edit: Had another quick look. The N Midlands, E Anglia and the NE could get clobbered on Friday.

Agreed Neil, the main course is probably to come, but I would not disregard the chance of some tasty appetizers today. 

East Midlands northward into Yorkshire and NE England today, dependant on some cloud breaks kicking things off. Localised convergence could also crank some convection as well. 

Estofex gives a rather generous Level 1 over a central chunk of England, just skirting into S. Scotland.

http://www.estofex.org/

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
16m asl
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LeedsLad123 Offline
#14 Posted : 04 July 2012 11:14:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Weatherfan2 Go to Quoted Post

No talk of storms tomorrow then.

Seems to be a lot of CAPE around like 900j/kgm here but no Convective Outlook on UKWW and nothing here and nothing from the BBC. Another fail I presume. Guuhhhh. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gaz Go to Quoted Post


Looks a bit Sparky for Friday

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/png/tmp/CTEST13413440316780.png

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/png/tmp/CTEST13413441317331.png

 

 

In the latest GFS runs CAPE has been severely restricted to the SW of England, with virtually naff all for the midlands and further north. One must wisen up to the fact that anything more than a few days away will inevitably be downgraded. 

 

CAPE still high for N England.

On another note, the Met Office have released a weather warning for today along the spine of England, into East Anglia

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Edited by user 04 July 2012 11:16:25(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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LeedsLad123 Offline
#15 Posted : 04 July 2012 11:54:40(UTC)
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Now we have an amber warning for N England on Friday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html
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Crepuscular Ray Offline
#16 Posted : 04 July 2012 12:36:05(UTC)
Crepuscular Ray

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Feeling tropical out there! 21 C and very humid, bright blue sky in patches but big glaciated CuNimbs now with dark rain shafts, lots of development to my south over Leics, expect Duane on soon!

 

 

Jerry
Lives in Blackford in south Edinburgh @ 70metres above sea level
Works at The Royal Yacht Britannia, moored in Leith, on the Firth of Forth @ sea level
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idj20 Offline
#17 Posted : 04 July 2012 12:48:39(UTC)
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Can now see a perfect procession of anvil-topped cumulonimbus lining the french coast from here, but I think they are going to miss us as they all slide by to my south east.


Ian D J, Folkestone Harbour.

Predicting the weather is like making love to a beautiful woman - if you don't keep on top of things, or come up short, you might encounter hostile conditions later.
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schmee Offline
#18 Posted : 04 July 2012 13:01:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Can now see a perfect procession of anvil-topped cumulonimbus lining the french coast from here, but I think they are going to miss us as they all slide by to my south east.

Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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schmee Offline
#19 Posted : 04 July 2012 13:12:36(UTC)
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We've had our showers and had the got going and intensified today then could have been good. anyways the met 12:19 upgrade. is it me or is( http://www.metoffice.gov...se_forecast_warnings.htm)l it not often we see an Amber warning like the one along the east side of the UK this early on.
Hello and thankyou from Chris observing from Guildford Surrey with a life long like and interest in the weather TWO is the place to be; reading the output posting daily totals and reading the just for fun.
(1/2011/2000//4/5/2012/18:33/3000//25/8/2012/23:00/7000) God save the Queen and respect.
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Sevendust Offline
#20 Posted : 04 July 2012 13:54:27(UTC)
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Interesting purple blob about to make landfall around Bournemouth on the radar

 

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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