00z GFS looking generally warmer than average and drier than the first half of July in the south from 17 July.

http://www.wetterzentral.../pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Better than the first half of the month further north, but still unsettled at times.

http://www.wetterzentral...s/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentral...ics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Not looking as positive as some of the runs over the last few days, but if it delivers drier and warmer weather in places (more often the south) that won't be a bad thing?

And most of the action in GFS is still beyond the range of ECM.

Edited by user 11 July 2012 06:57:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Good morning. Here's a look at the 00zs for this morning.

All models are agreed on the sequence of events for the rest of this coming week and weekend with a day of sunshine and showers today for the South with the persistent rain in the North and Northeast slowly turning more showery. All this in association with Low pressure to the NE moving slowly away. A weak ridge then crosses tonight and tomorrow bringing a drier interlude before rain and wind spread NE through tomorrow. This then slowly steers away NE over the weekend with a spell of cool NW winds and showers before these decay away from the SW later in the weekend.

GFS then shows next week starting with a weak ridge moving away East in the early days of the week opening the door for new Low pressure by Wednesday and Thursday. A few warmer and drier days look likely early next week especially in the South before the rains return later. In FI this morning things remain changeable with spells of rain mixed with some drier and brighter spells, these mainly in the South. With winds for the most part blowing from between South and West temperatures would be close to the mid July norm.

The GFS Ensembles do show a slowly warming process for the next two weeks without ever becoming very warm. Instead 850's show things settling just above the long term mean and with less wet conditions for both North and South locations indicating high pressure closer to the South than recently. The Control run once more shows a warm spell late in its run.

UKMO evolves on into next week with a ridge of high pressure crossing the UK early in the week though it flattens out as new Low pressure out to the NW look poised to take over as the week progresses.

ECM shows this process too though with a further weak trough crossing Monday bringing the chance of further rain. Thereafter the ridge moves East across the South especially and with the parent high close to Southern Britain for a few days conditions will be OK down here for 48hrs or so through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. Late in its run though things slide downhill nationally again as Low pressure troughs advance in from the West. Nevertheless, the South will see a further ridge late next week so conditions overall mightn't be too bad here.

In Summary the next few weeks look like remaining rather changeable with some rain at times for all. However, unlike previous weeks the rain is unlikely to be as heavy, or disruptive and persistent as recently with some drier spells at times in the South. With the drier spells comes increased brightness and some welcome sunshine and this would mean temperatures a little warmer than recently too, this again more likely in the South.

 

Mods: Any idea why my post has been deleted?! 

The first 5 days of that London ensemble are about as bad as I've ever seen. repeated heavy showers peaking in a Moomin's ark situation this Friday and constantly below average temps. Fingers very much crossed for the brief ridge on Monday to pull through. I'll have forgotten what the sun looks like by then!