Originally Posted by: Matty H

7 day bans.

Having seen the BBC 'weather for the week ahead', I think the next 7 days should be banned.

A glimmer of hope from NOGAPS maybe with the troughing getting snuffed out after next weekend  ...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogaps/runs/2012070106/nogaps-0-144.png?01-12

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: Downpour

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: doctormog

To be honest it is not just the GFS and its ensembles which are disappointing. The ECM 00z ensemble data has the trough close to the UK throughout, for example:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

Funnily enough, as bad as this past week was projected to be, it's actually been thoroughly decent here, although clearly that hasn't been the case everywhere. Very warm at times with showers admittedly, but rather typical summer fair. Hopefully we'll see a countrywide change soon.

That's right Matty. I spent the weekend in Cheltenham and was astounded to find prolonged sunny periods for much of yesterday and was actually sunbathing at times in a sheltered garden. It has to be said that there is often a negative spin on here - with some members keen to see the worst in unsettled regimes, when conditions on the ground can be very pleasant (isolated showers). One shower does not a bad day make and some members would be wise to note that the last three weekends in a row have offered useable weather in points south before writing off another period of summer based on what are fairly typically English sypnotics. But yes, hope to see a shift to a UK high at some point, although then it will all be about predicting a breakdown.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying everywhere has only been blighted by the odd shower. Yesterday saw torrential shower after torrential shower in Bristol, but it was pleasantly warm in the sun inbetween. Many, if not most other places have had a horrific June.

Yesterday was not bad at all - a couple of showers in the morning (including about a minute of hail) but most of the day was fine with sunny spells and patchy cloud.

The forecast had today being the best day of the weekend but it's been the other way round!

Nick, Whitchurch, Hampshire

..

Welcome back again it has been a very long long time posting on here.

I totally spent a lot of my time away from looking at this place which was good for me.

But still as far as the period starting Monday 2nd July 2012 right upto Sunday 8th July 2012 the UK weather is maintaining the bands of organized heavy and at times very heavy rain, and with some shorter sunny spells and intervals with plenty of heavy blustery thundery showers.

And with Sunspot Activity remaining high, and plenty of upcoming activity for period 1 to 3 July, as being moderately active for our Sun - we will deal with Geomagnetic Storms and Aurora Borealis and related weather effects that usually steer the PFJ on more Southerly tracks with NAO Negative!.

Northern Blocking is forecasted during the next 7 days as well.

All this is ok, and I really think the wet weather and the brief sunny breaks will be swapping up both ways, and the temperature will be remaining on the coolder side as well, - a good few degrees below normal.

I watched the news about NW N and NE England and SW Central and E SE Scotland Floods from torrential rain last Wednesday and Thursday and Friday as well.

This Weekend it been nice and also last week been nice and warm and drier in the London area so that was a good break.

I am getting ready for the return of rain again.

To all who like this traditional Normal British weather, I wish you all the best in enjoying it while it lasts.

It may change back to what it was before after this Solar Maximum is over.

They say that in 2013 the solar activity will peak higher than this year.

We were lucky that we were not facing the other sides as far as mentioning fact that the Earth fared better when the Venus and Mars planets were getting the more severer blasts of CME ejections and Solar Flares that headed there, thankfully it was we were lucky to not be at the same side as them, during April and May this year!.

Have fun looking at the GFS and UKMO - I am looking at them every day- and the pattern is one that is keeping to a condition that keeps the UK and Norway at times on the wet and cool side, with brief breaks.

Norway though does at times get the formation of high pressure more frequently than us in the current period we are going through.

So we know that April, May and June 2012 been a record breakingly cool and wet few months with rainfall in many parts of the UK well above normal and certainly look like a top record for Low Pressure and rainfall totals, and also the level of sunshine we have had- not much but a little or more here and there is our traditional weather situation with lots of cool and misty weather.

The warm and humid weather is normal at the end of June though!..

Originally Posted by: Downpour

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Originally Posted by: doctormog

To be honest it is not just the GFS and its ensembles which are disappointing. The ECM 00z ensemble data has the trough close to the UK throughout, for example:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

Funnily enough, as bad as this past week was projected to be, it's actually been thoroughly decent here, although clearly that hasn't been the case everywhere. Very warm at times with showers admittedly, but rather typical summer fair. Hopefully we'll see a countrywide change soon.

That's right Matty. I spent the weekend in Cheltenham and was astounded to find prolonged sunny periods for much of yesterday and was actually sunbathing at times in a sheltered garden. It has to be said that there is often a negative spin on here - with some members keen to see the worst in unsettled regimes, when conditions on the ground can be very pleasant (isolated showers). One shower does not a bad day make and some members would be wise to note that the last three weekends in a row have offered useable weather in points south before writing off another period of summer based on what are fairly typically English sypnotics. But yes, hope to see a shift to a UK high at some point, although then it will all be about predicting a breakdown.

Typical English synoptics? Hmmm...do I feed the troll?

Nah, best not. Let others judge whether this first summer month has been typical.

The lack of an appearance of the Azores High ridge would indicate that it's been a wee bit different to normal.

The stats in the CET thread say it all.