Can we please keep the tone of this thread friendly and polite at all times folks. I sensed there was a bit of needle creeping into the last one towards the end and there's no need for it.
Off you go.
Iffy at best here.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm
Yup. If we must have rain I would rather see it fall in some spectacular thunderstorms.
Let's hope ECM wants more to do with the plume tomorrow.
Nicely warming up next week to mid to high 20's possible. South Greenland getting a heatwave with 15C uppers, that would give them mid 20's temps inland away from the south coast and that heat come off from east Canada which they are having a proper heatwave atm.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png
Edited by user 22 June 2012 08:51:23(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
For the Southern third of the country, yes, and the signs are encouraging. But for most of the country it remains disappointingly cool and unsettled.
After Monday next week doesn't look to bad for a while. Settled and warm away from the NW for a few days with a growing threat of thundery weather later on mind.
Also in line with the Met/o 30 dayer.
Edited by user 22 June 2012 09:11:13(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Indeed Nick, still i prefer nationwide heat with proper Euro HP in place and LP not to be seen at all. Euro HP deliver heat to everywhere and much prolonged like we had in end of March and May than what we will see next week.
Edited by user 22 June 2012 09:13:14(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Most GEFS members bring in some form of plume, some more substantially than others, with the majority moving it through across the space of 24 to 48 hours.
The 00z control run was fun, having not one but two plumes, the second one an absolute monster and with an insane breakdown:
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120622/00/t850control-270.png
JFF but etc.
Overall staying interminably unsettled - the only difference is that we have perhaps have a slightly warmer and muggier version of what we have seen so far in prospect. Yuk. All that will do is heighten the potential further for disruptive summer weather and accelerate even more the excessive rainfall rates. Probably bringing us even closer to the June/July 2007 prototype - but we have to remember this time that we already have at least three sodden and autumnal weeks behind us. That sounds overly pessimistic but it is entirely based on fact and also quite firm possibilities in terms of the coming "summer" weather.
Worth noting then in this regard that programmed ridges beyond 4/5 days out are always get pinched out in more reliable time periods and the low pressure in the nearby atlantic will very likely be closer to the UK and probably track the same path as the current one and its predecesors in recent weeks. On that basis the "saving grace", peversely, might be that the most unstable warm moist air with associated highest high impact weather gets shunted eastwards, but at the expense of a 4th weekly repeat of the recent autumnal conditions instead. What a choice to have to pick from!
Other than Greenland of course, a very surpressed Azores High and and south eastern europe there is no real high pressure in sight. The overall pattern is entirely predictable and obvious now and shows no signs of changing at all.
Edited by user 22 June 2012 10:09:52(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
That normal for summer to get those heat at times. This would see 33-35C here.
Looks like a plume for the Eurozone next week
The UK looks like staying mostly out of it, though it may creep in down here for a time.
Yup, I agree. Fully expect it to graze the South East with the remainder of the country unaffected.
If it does make an appearance then expect it to end in a bang
Becoming more and more likely that we will get a warm up next week and naturally the further South you are the more you will benefit. It does look as though it could become very humid and sultry though with an increasing threat of thunderstorms later in the week. After that it looks like back to cooler and more generally unsettled weather though I am feeling a little more optimistic about the long term prospects than I have at any other time this summer, despite the rather poor outlook in the ensembles.
Edited by user 22 June 2012 13:17:53(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Here's today's model based musing video: Turning Very Warm (briefly) Next Week;
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
Looking better
The accumulated 48 hour rainfall totals carved out by the southerly tracking jet stream is shown well. It also shows that drier and much warmer weather to our south is really not a million miles away.
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/06/22/basis12/euro/rsum/12062412_2212.gif
BCC 500mbr anomaly for July doesn't look terribly inspiring;
http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/md/MD2012065/MD2012065GL_H5M2_1.GIF
Suggestion of troughiness around the UK and a ridge in the Atlantic = Cool and unsettled?
Not sure if I am reading that right but I don't see a negative anomaly over the UK just a positive anomaly in the Atlantic. Since we are seeing a snapshot of a month then to me it may suggest more typical UK summer conditions with some cooler wetter spells but also one or two warmer settled spells. No heatwave but much dryer and brighter than June at leat would be my guess with the Azores high ridging in from the SW on occasions but I stand to be corrected if I am misreading it.
Of course all that assumes the data will be proved correct
Edited by user 22 June 2012 15:53:10(UTC) | Reason: Not specified