Hey guys,

It's that time of year again when we can use May's Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to attempt to come up with a possible NAO forecast for the subsequent winter.

This years Atlantic temperature anomaly points towards a Positive NAO for winter 2012/2013!

Find out why and how in my video presentation, which you can see here:

http://gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html

The closest match I could find to May 2012's SST anomalies was May 2000, which is interesting because the Met Office forecast a strongly positive NAO for winter 2000/2001, but we actually ended up with a slightly negative NAO in the end.

Edited by user 02 June 2012 13:23:10(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

LOL! Should be working now.

This is interesting, because a couple of days ago some of the folks on Netweather were talking about how the stratospheric behaviour of late, along with other unspecified atmospheric conditions (this was not a detailed discussion!), boded well for a cold winter, with the stratosphere looking likely to 'play ball'.

So at this early stage we have a mix of mild and cold winter signals. How helpful

The past few severe winters seemed to occur after months and months of sporadic northern blocking during the summer .

Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

This is interesting, because a couple of days ago some of the folks on Netweather were talking about how the stratospheric behaviour of late, along with other unspecified atmospheric conditions (this was not a detailed discussion!), boded well for a cold winter, with the stratosphere looking likely to 'play ball'.

 

So at this early stage we have a mix of mild and cold winter signals. How helpful

Well, as I say at the end of the video, there are a LOT of differant things you can look at in terms of trying to get a winter forecast together (Siberian snow cover, solar, ENSO, etc..) and most of them don't even begin to to come on to the radar until September at the earliest.

The NAO forecast from May's Atlantic SST anomalies is just one part of the puzzle (though the Met Office clearly believed/believe that its quite an important part)

Edited by user 01 June 2012 10:31:41(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Yep... I don't usually begin to ponder over the winter until a good number of indicators are available for study. Even if we had two signals for a cold winter right now, it would be foolish to call it that way.

The long wait begins

Yeah, the NAO forecast from May 2011 was for a positive NAO for winter 2011/2012;

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-110522.gif

Interesting....think we could have another 'conflicting signals' winter on our hands. Last winter has proven that the state of the strat plays a major role in determining the weather patterns that we experience....something I believe the MetOffice has just recently invested more time in studying? For me, the sea surface temps of the north Atlantic provide nothing but a vague indicator of the tendency for pressure distribution and the link IMO is tentative at best regards the May-proceeding winter hypothesis.

I'm not in anyway slating this method but from memory it has been very hit and miss in the past which leads me to believe it's a signal that can easily be overridden.

Well if the NAO signal does prove to be right I hope like this Winter gone we have at least one week of decent Winter which would be ok. On the plus side it would ease drought conditions further and even better it would deprive the greedy power companies of profits if most of the winter is mild like last Winter, so everything has some positive points!  However an Atlantic driven Winter can often have some severe gales so that could be a problem also.

But a long way to go and a lot can change, on a more immediate note will Autumn break the trend of the last few years like Spring has this year and perhaps we have a warm September then cold October / November?

Edited by user 02 June 2012 06:33:55(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified