Hi guys. Well here goes, my annual attempt (guess) at a summer forecast.
Mods, I have also put a copy of this in the Summer Thoughts thread, but I'd appreciate a thread of its own for the time being so people can comment on it. (Nice comments please)!! No need to sticky it, because the forecast will remain in the summer thoughts thread throughout.
First a health warning. My winter 2011-12 LRF was pretty poor (with the exception of the first month, which was pretty decent!)......I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and I enjoy doing them.
This is purely how I anticipate the summer to pan out. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be somewhere in between.
So here goes!
Moomin75’s 2012 summer forecast
Overview: Slightly warmer than average with average or slightly below average rainfall throughout all three months.
Much of this rainfall will be in June and July in the form of showers, many of these thundery in nature, with August perhaps drier than average overall.
My methodology is predominantly pattern matching, but I also consider the influence of the jet stream, which appears to be trending towards assuming its more normal “summer” position as opposed to the last 4 or 5 years.
However, the continued quiet solar activity appears to be encouraging blocking to our north and east at times, which will lead to some very warm spells of summer weather at times.
I believe that a predominantly northerly jet (something we have not seen so much in recent summers) will play a significant role in what will be overall a pretty decent summer.
Occasional attacks from the Atlantic, pushing against blocking to the north and east will result in some thundery breakdowns at times, most of these in central, southern and south western parts in June and July.
June 2012: I believe June 2012 will begin on an fairly settled note, but with occasional showers across the country, particularly central southern and south-western parts.
However, in any drier spells, it will still be very pleasant or warm, with perhaps the warmest conditions across the north and west of the UK.
The jet stream, however, will be tracking to the north of the UK, meaning that much of the rainfall will be sporadic in nature, with much of any rainfall occuring after the weekend into the second week of the month.
Late in the second week, I believe blocking will become re-established to our north and also to the east, allowing warm easterly or south-easterly winds to take hold across the UK.
Into the second week of the month, I think that blocking will become re-established to our north and also to the east, allowing warm easterly or south-easterly winds to take hold across the UK.
Much of the driest, warmest weather will be closest to the high pressure, with Scotland and northern England faring best.
However, the whole of the UK will be under the influence of this blocking high as low pressure systems usually associated with early June are kept at bay.
Some south-western areas may be a little cloudier and damp at times, but elsewhere, showers will be few and far between.
After a coolish first week of June, I expect temperatures to pick up considerably during the second week, getting into the low to mid twenties nationwide, feeling very warm in long sunny spells.
Towards the end of June, I believe the weather will begin to turn unsettled from the south west, with spells of rain or showers across many parts of England.
However, it will remain warm or very warm with winds turning southerly or south westerly.
With a potential plume of very warm air from France and Spain, there is the possibility for it to become increasingly humid, with some torrential thunderstorms likely at times, particularly, but not exclusively across the south and the midlands.
Towards the north of England and Scotland, I believe it will stay predominantly dry, closer to the influence of high pressure.
Overall, I expect June’s CET to be AT LEAST 1 degree above average, sunshine at values to be at or above the 1971-2001 average in north, but perhaps average in the south closer to the Atlantic low pressure systems.
I anticipate June to be drier than normal in the north, but further south, overall precipitation should come in around average due to the heavy showers that are likely to affect the latter part of June.
July 2012: July will commence on a fairly settled note, although still with the prospect of heavy and thundery showers in the south.
However, I believe there will be a prospect that the Azores High will link with the large blocking high over Scandinavia to give much of the UK an extremely warm and dry period for the first two weeks of July after perhaps a few unsettled days at the start.
With winds tending to be coming from a southerly quarter, temperatures in the south could soar into the high twenties, and possibly low thirties at times, although not record-breakingly hot.
These high temperatures, combined with high humidity will be a recipe for afternoon and evening showers and storms, most of these centred around the southern half of the UK.
Further north, I believe it will be mainly dry and a little cooler here, but still temperatures easily into the twenties.
Around the middle of July, I anticipate a change to more mobile conditions with the jet stream diving south, and possibly a spell of rather unsettled weather across much of the UK as the Azores High loses its link with the Scandi high.
This will allow the Atlantic in for a while, and could lead to a week or so of cooler and more unsettled weather nationwide.
Much of the wettest and coolest weather will remain in the Midlands and south of the country, while further north, it will be cooler than the start of the month, but slightly drier than the south.
I don’t anticipate this spell of unsettled weather to last too long, and in the second half of July, I expect the jet to re-assume it’s northerly track, allowing the Azores high to again assert its influence across central and southern parts.
Conversely, I believe this will lead to a more unsettled and cooler second half of July in the north as blocking to the north east dissipates.
Temperatures will recover in the south to average, or perhaps slightly above average in the drier spells, but this will not prevent the monthly CET coming in around or slightly above the 1971-2001 average overall.
Overall, I expect July’s rainfall to be very slightly above average.
Sunshine amounts will also be around average in the south, although further north, perhaps slightly below average amounts of sunshine and average rainfall due to an unsettled last two weeks of July.
August 2012: I anticipate August to be the best month of the summer nationwide, with some long dry spells.
I believe the jet stream will be tracking way to the north of the UK, and this should allow ridging from the Azores to become more pronounced, bringing spells of sunshine and warmer weather at times across all areas.
However, I do anticipate further showers at times, many of these sparked by the warmth of the day, and overall, I believe the monthly CET will come out slightly above average overall in the south.
Further north, I anticipate again plenty of settled weather, but with a higher propensity of Atlantic weather systems to make inroads at times.
Summary: All in all, I expect a very reasonable summer for all, and certainly better than we have experienced in the last 5 years or so.
I make no apologies for this being a rather “boring” forecast with no massive deviations from what would be seen as a “normal” summer.
There will be some significant warm or hot spells – more so than in the last five years, but nothing record-breaking, with perhaps the hottest part of the summer being in the first week or so of July.
This summer will be notable for occasional thundery breakdowns early in the summer (throughout June), with an unsettled spell in mid-July.
August will probably bring the most pleasant spell of the summer in terms of conditions and temperatures, and I envisage August to buck the trend of the last few years with some very pleasant summer weather.
I believe that the dry August will lead us into a very pleasant start to September, which has rapidly become an extended summer month in recent years.
As I always say guys, please don’t shoot the messenger. I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and as Matty H has always said, all LRF’s are a good deal of guess work.
If I’m right, it will be an achievement, (hopefully I won’t be far off the mark), but this is my genuine thoughts of what we will see during summer 2012.
Edited by user 30 May 2012 09:39:34(UTC)
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Well, you know my views on LRF's. However, I respect the amount of effort you have put into this, and if you're anything like correct then we'll all be happy*
*Apart from Darren, obviously...
Nice - cheers
Good luck with your forecast.
Good luck with the 'cast
The spells of thunderstorms catch my eye, really hope we get some this summer
Thanks moomin and I hope you do well this season
Just a couple of comments (nice comments don't worry): while you don't call for anything 'exciting' I think that's very much possible in a warm regime with thundery showers... also, the scope for a few exceptionally hot days is pretty good IMO but we won't hol it against you if that happens
As a bit of a weather geek myself and with hundreds of years experience with the use of wet piece of string nailed to the fence post or red sky at night theory (No science in this whatsoever with the weather from my part)
Got a good gut feeling about this summer with thrown into the mix and the way the last couple of days have felt like the
summers of yesteryear with that certain summer aroma thats been missing for sooo long
I have to say Computer says yeah I think you're on to a winner an wish you every success
Thanks for the comments guys.
Keep 'em coming.!
Anything like this would be a massive improvement on the crap we have had since 2006.
Indeed 2006 was the last decent summer I experienced in my area of the country.
Good luck Moomin!
But personally I reckon the northern blocking signals are showing that something similar to last year is mostly likely, though probably with more inter-month variability
Edited by user 26 May 2012 22:45:08(UTC)
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But personally I feel the pattern is totally different to last year!