I notice Glacier over on NW now ramping up the duration of the warmth as we hit June.
"...there are a lot of factors from the top of the atmosphere down all keeping things the way they are now, for a sustained period."
The words of GP there
Good models this evening; even the least summery operational output contains a large amount of fine weather.
Anyone seen YD?
I'm sure he'll be back trolling at the first hint of cooler weather. For a while at least...
The nice weather continues and the upcoming few days look stunning with crystal deep blue clear sunny skies, a refreshing easterly breeze and pleasant comfortable warmth in the low to mid/upper 70s For some of us that makes perfect summer weather
Thereafter something of a crossroads as pressure falls in the mid atlantic, whilst is high over and to the west of Greenland. Something of a col situation for a time over the UK just downstream from this. Hints from a lot of the modelling that pressure wants to rise over the nearby continent and just to the east of the UK therafter to raise temperatures and humidity once more - perhaps more so than the last few days. But exactly where/if any downstream ridging sets up as a response to lower pressure over the atlantic and further upstream pressure ridging into north eastern Canada is unclear.
Jet strength however, at least at this stage, doesn't hint at any of the return of troughs from the west sitting back close and over the UK as during April and the start of May - and as hinted at coming back in recent Met Office further outlooks
Somewhere on the Cairngorm Plateau?
despite what some of the ops are showing, i cannot see troughing to our south for the bank holiday weekend.
Well your opinion is highly regarded so i'll hold you to that nickl!
Runs not quite as wonderful as previous days but still a fairly settled outlook,maybe some hefty showers/storms midweek under a col?
MVH's take on today's EC32 update.
"Latest EC 32 day signalling a greater risk of more anticyclonic conditions continuing well into June now...-ve pressure anom much weaker"
So suspect that may be picked up by Met Office update later.
This morning's models not as exciting as last nights (18z GFS was a cracker).
Well the 00zs from the big three look set fair this morning for the foreseeable. GFS maintains high pressure near to the UK for the entire run with only small subtle differences in the highest temperature distribution over the next two weeks. A few thundery showers would be possible, mainly in the SW early next week and right out in the far reaches of FI in the SE. Temperatures would reach the low 20's at least on most days away from the North Sea coasts. The ensembles though are not as high as last night with the operational close to the long term mean once we enter June. There is plenty of support though for warmer uppers than the operational.
UKMO shows the next few days with a noticeable East breeze which drops out on Sunday as a weak disturbance moves up from the SW, possibly sparking a few downpours, but nothing more. Thereafter a ridge straddles the UK from a High centre to the North and from the Azores by 144hrs maintaining the warm and settled picture for most.
ECM follows suit with UKMO setting up another strong High to the North drifting towards Scandinavia by day 10. The net result would be a mostly settled, potentially very warm spell continuing with a strengthening East wind again in a week or so with perhaps some thundery showers near the SE by the end of next weekend.
In Summary the overall outlook remains good. With little influence from the Atlantic it leaves High pressure in control of our weather for the foreseeable. With the centres of High pressure shown in generally favourable positions the weather would remain mostly dry with warm sunny days and just occasional low cloud and haar near windward coasts, especially the East. The odd thundery shower will occur here and there but don't look like being widespread. For the Jubilee weekend the weather currently looks set fair with just the chance of a heavy shower towards the SE and South
Edited by user 25 May 2012 07:43:08(UTC)
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The GFS ensembles look generally above averge and on the whole,dry.The op was certainly one of the cooler solutions but the pack is tightly grouped so the model seems fairly satisfied in a stable pattern.At least we wont be stuck under a trough with cool unsettled gunk.
ECM again looks mainly settled but i'd suggest quite a few degrees down on what we have currently.That said,as we hit June the sun willl be very high in the sky and strong so it should be OK.
UKMO probably similar to ECM with generally fine weather with maybe an increasing risk of thundery showers midweek.
All in all little to tempt YD out of hibernation.
Yes, the models all look to be in good agreement regarding the overall picture, subtle differences simply affecting actual temp/humidity and perhaps any thundery showers and presence of coastal low cloud.I don't think temp is really much of an issue for the Jubilee weekend: it'll either be (mostly) pleasantly warm and dry or very warm and dry.It's not going to be cold and wet!
Edited by user 25 May 2012 07:55:14(UTC)
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Settled and warm (or very warm) with temps in the low to mid twenties for the foreseeable future. There is the chance of a few showers early next week in the west for a time. The model trending has the makings of a potential heatwave in 7-9 days time too before some slightly fresher air arrives from the east in 10-12 days time.
I haven't seen such a good signal for a sustained settled spell of weather since Summer 2006.
Edited by user 25 May 2012 07:57:01(UTC)
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Indeed, hard to believe how it's changed in the past week! Whether this means it's our turn for an extended summer heatwave or whether it'll all change later in June remains to be seen. But as we know, once high pressure takes hold it can be stubborn to shift, whatever the models may suggest in FI range.
I love all the optimism this morning.
TBH, I agree with YD
PS (TBH stands for Too B**** Hot - as you would agree, Matty, if you'd been doing strenuous outdoor work instead of lying pasty-faced under some ill-performong gas boiler
Unlike the ECM OP the ECM ensemble mean has no trough to the south for the end of its run and as a result is far more settled and warmer for us. A very settled and warm/very warm next 10 days looks likely at the moment.
Certainly no sign of anything cool or wet in the models this morning though I wouldn't be surprised to see a change mid June due to the traditional June monsoon (or perhaps we've had that early!). Either way very summery weather all the way out but let's hope the humid sultry weather stays away and we keep the humidity low, as that's rather vile to have to live and work in.
Most warm end to May's that I can remember usually signal a very hot sustained spell later in the Summer - will this year be the return of the mid 90's F that used to be regular as clockwork in the 90's and pre 2007 era? Not a fan of heat like that but probabilities suggest it must be time again for it to happen.
Here's my latest video musing looking ahead to the start of June and the holiday weeked: