The runs continue to look changeable with some pleasant spells especially, in the south with average temps although below at first, but also some showers or rain from time to time.
Big disagreement between ECMWf and UKMO at just 120 hours this morning.
is the ecm 00z suite onto something ?
trough pulled west allowing the euro height rise to influence the uk with a likely nw/se split developing. modelling at this range currently too inconsistent to draw conclusions yet.
i'll bet my bottom dollar the trough sticks to close and the plume heads into mainland europe.
you watch cfs change its tune for june in the coming days.
Nearing 15°C with plenty of sun here this afternoon
For the south, the models are showing reasonable conditions for May from now until Monday or Tuesday (GFS 06z has an extra low to make Tuesday a dissapointing affair whereas on the 00z run it was mosty dry but rather cool). The temperatures remain a bit below average, however... but in the sun it feels good nonetheless.
Further north... what can I say... a not bad (but not all that warm) day on Saturday for most, then Scotland sees some rather stormy weather arriving during Sunday afternoon while the rest of the UK escapes with another fairly nice day, that cloud, rain and wind then pushing south but not delivering much to much of England... the mountains mean that Wales gets a more significant amount from it.
High pressure may be on the scene again midweek but low pressure may attack from the southwest - the extent of this and the timing of events remains to be seen. The 06z run then pulls the troughing west in early FI, in line with the ECM ensemble suite signal, delivering a fine spell that turns hot for a few days (well, it'd feel hot...) before we get what could be a high-level thundery breakdown. Perhaps the last 10 days of May will be spent playing a dangerous game with continental plumes and troughing hanging around or passing through Iberia? We'd need a fair bit of luck to get a proper heatwave... but you never know!
Cool and showery Met/o 12z, especially, for Central and Eastern areas. Cool and alittle settled around 144hs but it doesn't look like lasting.
Edited by user 11 May 2012 17:33:17(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
No sign that the trough from hell wants to leave our vicinity in the models.
I see the metoffice have backtracked from their hints of something more settled as we leave May.
And there was me thinking first 2 weeks in June might be a good arrow for a fortnight off work.
Very changeable ECM 12z.
I am having to backtrack from my hopes for a better end to May as well, it really is looking shocking, and I am starting to get a bit fed up with waiting for my first game of cricket!
All the major models paint a continuing cool and unsettled May, with little sign of anything improving as we head towards June.
My summer LRF will be out shortly, and I fear it will not make good reading for those of you looking for a long hot summer....
And yes, there might be the need for an ark again.
Best not to be too pessimistic - despite the downturn on the 12Zs the trend still looks more settled as we head towards the end of May.I'm not calling a continued deluge until a few more runs go by.
Hmmm, some much needed but unsupported optimism on this thread today but for me the MetO 10dayer and ECM 12Z spells out the likely scenario over the next 10-15 days with the worse weather relative to average being in the south from Thursday/Friday onwards as pressure builds to the north.
The south could be looking at another record breaking wet month if the ECM comes off which IMO is quite likely.
The MetO outlook pushes any improvement in the weather well into June which is bad news for the long Bank Holiday weekend, Queens Jubilee etc.
All very depressing and the quote on my signature below seems very apt tonight
oh dear! look at the greenland anomaly again!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yep, agree with the general consensus on here tonight. Looks as though the weather may actually be turning even more cooler and wetter for the later stage of the month.
Yep, that screams continued northern blocking until the end of May, could be some very late frosts around up North? very late May / early June 1962ish.
The coronation back in 1953 was held in shocking weather- http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Coronation-Weather.htm,
A cold front brought thunder-showers and a sharp drop in temperature on May 26, and from then until the middle of June the. British Isles lay between high pressure over the Atlantic, usually located somewhere between Ireland and Iceland, and low pressure over the near-continent. As a result the country lay under a very cool and moist northerly airflow throughout this period. June 2 itself was a miserable, November-like day in London as far as the weather was concerned, with dull skies, a chill wind and sporadic outbreaks of rain during the morning, although it dried out gradually later on. The afternoon temperature climbed no higher than 12°C - several degrees lower than the Queen's wedding day in November six years before.
Might be fitting if the weather is similar over the June long weekend
Edited by user 11 May 2012 21:54:22(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
Yes it would appear a signal is being picked up for MORE extensive Northern blocking highs in the medium to longer term.
Even at this ridiculously early stage May looks set to join April as an absolute horror show.
The latter stages of ecm are as grim as grim can be and i can't see an easy or quick way out of the chart posted.
People at work already getting sick of the weather,i didn't dare tell them the next 2 weeks minimum look generally appalling.