Those of you wondering about my t-shirt action... I'm in west Hants and it just so happens that the NE corner of my garden is nicely sheltered from the wind but exposed to the sun. At this time of year, the sun can make you very toasty even when its only ten degrees! I rolled my jeans up and everything!
Just to prevent attacks by jealous northerners, let me point out that only 30 or so miles east of Stormchaser there was drizzly rain all afternoon; finally saw the sun at about 8 pm whuch was a bit late for garden lounging.
I've been watching the week's models, as we have visitors coming from USA. The models have been very variable. A week or so ago rain was going to push through on Monday and leave a relatively fine mid-week; only 3 or 4 days ago Tuesday was going to be a write-off with heavy rain but nice with sun and showers on Wednesday; yesterday Tuesday was showing as not too bad and Wednesday was the wet one; this morning every day through Friday has some wet some dry time!
Just to prevent attacks by jealous northerners
Why would there be attacks by jealous northerners when it was sunny all day yesterday with the temperature topping out at 12C? I mowed the lawn in a T-Shirt. It's grim dawn saath.
i see ESTOFEX have a level 1 out for Wales today. Interesting times.
Lately, the rural cottages have had their wood fires going, bringing about a real sense that it's somehow become February again.
Not just the rural cottages - we've had a couple of log fires over the weekend to ward off the chill.
Extensive northern blocking and cyclonic conditions over the UK again
ECM offers up the worst of this morning's operational solutions, followed by GEM.
Beyond the mid Atlantic ridge through the UK, there has been a growing signal for troughing to return near the south of the UK, with high pressure to the north again. How quickly we get there is open to question, as is the source of the troughing that ends up to our south; ECM is bringing it down from the north while GEM holds it back a bit, and CFS actually chooses to bring in a trough from the SW instead.
After an unsettled working week - with a fair bit of rain but falling short of a total washout - the odds are on for a dry weekend and possibly there will be reasonable temperatures (mid-teens across much of England, for example) and some sunshine on offer. Afterwards a slide back to changeable/unsettled conditions is favoured.
That does not surprise me one bit.
Looking wet if not very wet for much of this week especially, in the south where flooding is a possibility.
Yes,todays outputs confrims my fears about May.
The odd transient col aside its looking like northern blocking is going to dominate for the forseeable.
Something better has got to be round the corner though.lol.
It's not often that I post on this model thread, just thought I'd say if you take a look at May 1995 or May 2003 both were unsettled and cool then look at how things changed afterwards. Still plenty of time left for decent Summery weather.
Edited by user 07 May 2012 15:18:40(UTC)
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Yeh,i know.Its just a pattern seems to be developing in the last 5 years or so of extensive northern blocking in summer,granted this year it seems to have devopled much earlier.
If you live near me then you will know full well what we have had to endure for the last 4 or 5 'summers' so the alarm bells start to ring in my ears when we see High lat blocking for a sustained period.
Of course June July could be a heatfest ,time will tell.
Thursday looks like a good day for puddle jumping in the south.
some sniffs from the extended ens and ops that we may be seeing a riise in heights to our east/northeast as we head into the final week of the month. whether we can be close enough to such a feature to benefit remains open to question but if the troughing remains in our vicinity, that could mean a warm flow, whatever the weather
Very changeable ECM 12z. A brief ridge this weekend and into the start of next week but soon going down hill thereafter with a very unsettled and cool FI.
Heaven forbid. I am overly concerned though - But I will be if this is still the case in 3 weeks time.
The early hours of Thursday looks like seeing torrential rain IMBY but it does look to have cleared away by 9am... I'm due to catch the hovercraft from Popmey to the Isle of Wight at 8:45am so I sure hope the rain does not arrive any later than progged! Ideally it will move through quicker than currently shown but I dare not hope for that.
I made the mistake of veiwing the 00z "CFS daily" run today, which kept things mostly unsettled right the way through to and including mid-June. It became warmer at times but it was rarely ever summer-like. I imagine many of us would be very fed up if that verified... surely our luck isn't as bad as that? Then again, just look at how 2008 panned out from April through to August
Models continue to offer pretty much zero in terms of settled warm weather.This week looks generally wet,the offer of a cloudy high fri/sat then back to troughfest in tandem with high lat blocking for next week.
Already sick of it and its only early May.
After the rain clears though early Friday a brief ridge moves in for the weekend but doesn't last as by Monday the next low moves in and that as they say is that for next week. Unsettled and cool with plenty of rain or slow moving heavy, thundery showers.
Edited by user 08 May 2012 08:20:18(UTC)
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