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April Convection and Thunder Thread
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Bleachy Offline
#541 Posted : 27 April 2012 13:07:58(UTC)
Bleachy

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Location: Bristol UK

Originally Posted by: GIBBY Go to Quoted Post
Similar here his morning. A conveyor belt of heavy showers has developed from shortly after 9 this morning from Exeter through Taunton, Glastonbury, Bath and on NE towards N Swindon. Some torrential downpours one after another in this zone while places not too far NW and SE remain dry and bright. It looks like Radstock is right in the middle of the zone.

As you say, completely dry here in Stoke Gifford and Mangotsfield in Bristol, but I can see a lot of grey clouds building around me.

Mark

 

Mangotsfield, Bristol UK.
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RWL757 Offline
#542 Posted : 27 April 2012 13:44:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Bleachy Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: GIBBY Go to Quoted Post
Similar here his morning. A conveyor belt of heavy showers has developed from shortly after 9 this morning from Exeter through Taunton, Glastonbury, Bath and on NE towards N Swindon. Some torrential downpours one after another in this zone while places not too far NW and SE remain dry and bright. It looks like Radstock is right in the middle of the zone.

As you say, completely dry here in Stoke Gifford and Mangotsfield in Bristol, but I can see a lot of grey clouds building around me.

Mark

 

just down the road from you Bleachy we have opaque grey sky mod rain with no wind just slight drift of the cloud from the SW very interesting watching the radar with this 'storm' forming insitu lots of colour in the echoes to the south of Bristol

Rich WL
Warmley
South Glos
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Karl Offline
#543 Posted : 27 April 2012 13:45:14(UTC)
Karl

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Location: Bristol

Very dark here in Stoke Gifford, Bristol.

 

Hoping for something!!!! C'mon lets av it!

Lowest Recorded Temp 2012: -7c 3rd February
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nsrobins Offline
#544 Posted : 27 April 2012 13:45:41(UTC)
nsrobins

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On the subject of April convection, and not withstanding the event on Saturday night/Sunday which is likely to deliver more significant rainfall to many areas, I am watching Mon night as most models bring an organised active trough up from the continent which given the source could well be thundery and torrential in nature. Worth watching.

Denmead, South Hampshire
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Romfordman Offline
#545 Posted : 27 April 2012 19:15:21(UTC)
Romfordman

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It has been a day here of seemingly continous rain showers

Some of them very heavy

Richard
35m asl

I do not believe in a word that you say, but I will defend with my life, if need be, your right to say it.
Voltaire
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GIBBY Offline
#546 Posted : 27 April 2012 19:35:24(UTC)
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Location: Radstock Bath

Originally Posted by: Romfordman Go to Quoted Post

It has been a day here of seemingly continous rain showers

Some of them very heavy

Same here in Northeast Somerset. Not all heavy but some torrential bursts thrown in at times, totalling 8mm since 10am.

Martin G
Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton & Radstock Weather Website

Now includes a page of links to the latest charts from GFS, UKMO, ECM and GEM plus the latest Bracknell Fax Charts
Don't Forget you can view my Daily Weather Reports and Summaries at 08:00 and 19:00GMT on my website. Go To Home Page and follow link to 'Model Analysis'.


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Stormchaser Offline
#547 Posted : 27 April 2012 21:21:05(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

On the subject of April convection, and not withstanding the event on Saturday night/Sunday which is likely to deliver more significant rainfall to many areas, I am watching Mon night as most models bring an organised active trough up from the continent which given the source could well be thundery and torrential in nature. Worth watching.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120427/12/75/ukcapeli.png

GFS is predicting good CAPE and LI values ahead of that trough on Monday afternoon.

Not that it means much really at this range... the convective forecast parameters chop and change so much.

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 19.8 7th May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March!
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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JimC Offline
#548 Posted : 27 April 2012 23:11:22(UTC)
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Location: Frome, N/E Somerset

Originally Posted by: GIBBY Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Romfordman Go to Quoted Post

It has been a day here of seemingly continous rain showers

Some of them very heavy

Same here in Northeast Somerset. Not all heavy but some torrential bursts thrown in at times, totalling 8mm since 10am.

Amazing sometimes Martin, I'm (as the crow flies) just a few miles East of you and we've had hardly a drop of rain, I did notice the very dark clouds your way and some looked really potent but here it was rather pleasant for a change.
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Twister Offline
#549 Posted : 30 April 2012 06:24:30(UTC)
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CAPE of over 500 this afternoon at Herstmonceux: 

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK12/FCST/sounding3.curr.1530lst.d2.png

 

The forecast goes for showers possible turning thundery in the evening, followed by thudery rain tonight with flood risk.

Location: Egerton, Kent. 33m ASL
Thunder 2013: 1 (May 23)
Air frosts 2012/13: 57 (2 in Sep; 3 in Oct; 11 in Nov; 9 in Dec; 11 in Jan; 10 in Feb; 9 in Mar; Apr 6,7)
Snowfall 2012/13: 30 (Dec 5,13; Jan 13-5,18-22,25; Feb 10-11,14,22-4; Mar 10-13,23-5,28-31; Apr 3,4)
Snow cover 2012/3: 14 (Jan 14,15,18-25; Feb 11,23; Mar 11-12)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
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Sevendust Offline
#550 Posted : 30 April 2012 06:56:37(UTC)
Sevendust

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Originally Posted by: Twister Go to Quoted Post

CAPE of over 500 this afternoon at Herstmonceux: 

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK12/FCST/sounding3.curr.1530lst.d2.png

 

The forecast goes for showers possible turning thundery in the evening, followed by thudery rain tonight with flood risk.

Yep - nice sounding that. 26000 foot cloud tops

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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idj20 Offline
#551 Posted : 30 April 2012 07:03:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Twister Go to Quoted Post

CAPE of over 500 this afternoon at Herstmonceux: 

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK12/FCST/sounding3.curr.1530lst.d2.png

 

The forecast goes for showers possible turning thundery in the evening, followed by thudery rain tonight with flood risk.

Yep - nice sounding that. 26000 foot cloud tops



Looking set to be quite lively for tonight if most of the outputs are anything to go by. I believe Hampshire, Sussex and Surrey are most at risk of thunderstorms in the small hours of Tuesday (that's my own take on things).
  Kent does seem to be a little too far east for it, but I'll still be charging the battery on my camera, though. Just need someone to convince me if it is worth setting the alarm clock to wake myself up during the night (I'm a heavy sleeper).  

Edited by user 30 April 2012 07:04:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified


Ian D J, Folkestone Harbour.

Predicting the weather is like making love to a beautiful woman - if you don't keep on top of things, or come up short, you might encounter hostile conditions later.
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Charmhills Offline
#552 Posted : 30 April 2012 07:16:00(UTC)
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Gona be interesting in S/SE England later on today and overnight.


Duane.




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Crepuscular Ray Offline
#553 Posted : 30 April 2012 07:30:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

Gona be interesting in S/SE England later on today and overnight.

Looks like we may be too far north for any action Duane, we will probably just get the rain tomorrow! Despite a very convective April I've not actually heard any thunder yet this year - very unusual for me by end of April!

Jerry
Lives in Blackford in south Edinburgh @ 70metres above sea level
Works at The Royal Yacht Britannia, moored in Leith, on the Firth of Forth @ sea level
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GIBBY Offline
#554 Posted : 30 April 2012 07:54:33(UTC)
GIBBY

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Location: Radstock Bath

Personally I don't think there will be too much electrical activity tonight, not on a summer scale anyway. Yes there may be a few embedded storms and rumbles but a large area of thundery rain seems much more likely imo. I hope I'm wrong though..haven't experienced thunder here for ages.

Martin G
Radstock Bath Somerset

Midsomer Norton & Radstock Weather Website

Now includes a page of links to the latest charts from GFS, UKMO, ECM and GEM plus the latest Bracknell Fax Charts
Don't Forget you can view my Daily Weather Reports and Summaries at 08:00 and 19:00GMT on my website. Go To Home Page and follow link to 'Model Analysis'.


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Charmhills Offline
#555 Posted : 30 April 2012 07:55:58(UTC)
Charmhills

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Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

Gona be interesting in S/SE England later on today and overnight.

Looks like we may be too far north for any action Duane, we will probably just get the rain tomorrow! Despite a very convective April I've not actually heard any thunder yet this year - very unusual for me by end of April!

Will just get the rain Jerry.


Duane.




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Stormchaser Offline
#556 Posted : 30 April 2012 09:35:36(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/Monday/FCST/sounding11.curr.1800lst.d2.png

Clouds may build to 29000 feet this evening at Larkhill, for example

 

Shame I'm in Portsmouth

Still, could be interesting down here too as the convection meets the coast!

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants Just under 10 miles south of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). Current location: Homeland
2013's Extremes to Date IMBY:
T-Max: 19.8 7th May | T-Min: -4.7 14th Mar | Wettest Day: 21.0mm 16th Mar | Ice Days: 5 | Days with wind gusts over 60mph: 0 (1 55mph)|Dry 15th Feb-5th March!
Keep Calm and Forecast On
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Sevendust Offline
#557 Posted : 30 April 2012 12:09:15(UTC)
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Very nice draw from the south in the upper levels thanks to that LP from the weekend. Whole world of trouble brewing towards Central France

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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idj20 Offline
#558 Posted : 30 April 2012 12:14:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Very nice draw from the south in the upper levels thanks to that LP from the weekend. Whole world of trouble brewing towards Central France



Hi Dave, I value your input; what are your thoughts are far as our neck of the woods are concerned when it comes to tonight?

I can take it if it isn't going to take off as much I would like it to, or it misses my area. :-D

Ian D J, Folkestone Harbour.

Predicting the weather is like making love to a beautiful woman - if you don't keep on top of things, or come up short, you might encounter hostile conditions later.
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Sevendust Offline
#559 Posted : 30 April 2012 12:28:49(UTC)
Sevendust

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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Very nice draw from the south in the upper levels thanks to that LP from the weekend. Whole world of trouble brewing towards Central France

Hi Dave, I value your input; what are your thoughts are far as our neck of the woods are concerned when it comes to tonight? I can take it if it isn't going to take off as much I would like it to, or it misses my area. :-D

Hi Ian - Never that convinced about homegrown instability in these set ups at this time of year although a large mass of thundery rain looks very likely to develop thanks to our French compatriots. Lots happening due south at present but I suspect things may sheer a tad westwards as it approaches the UK. It all depends on how far things destabilise eastwards over the continent. I certainly wouldn't rule out activity anywhere along the south coast this evening/overnight. There is potential for a very large amount of rain based on my experience of these set ups and 25mm would seem feasible(again) for some areas

Edited by user 30 April 2012 12:29:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Dave

Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps

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idj20 Offline
#560 Posted : 30 April 2012 12:47:22(UTC)
idj20

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Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Sevendust Go to Quoted Post

Very nice draw from the south in the upper levels thanks to that LP from the weekend. Whole world of trouble brewing towards Central France

Hi Dave, I value your input; what are your thoughts are far as our neck of the woods are concerned when it comes to tonight? I can take it if it isn't going to take off as much I would like it to, or it misses my area. :-D

Hi Ian - Never that convinced about homegrown instability in these set ups at this time of year although a large mass of thundery rain looks very likely to develop thanks to our French compatriots. Lots happening due south at present but I suspect things may sheer a tad westwards as it approaches the UK. It all depends on how far things destabilise eastwards over the continent. I certainly wouldn't rule out activity anywhere along the south coast this evening/overnight. There is potential for a very large amount of rain based on my experience of these set ups and 25mm would seem feasible(again) for some areas



Much appreciated!

Ian D J, Folkestone Harbour.

Predicting the weather is like making love to a beautiful woman - if you don't keep on top of things, or come up short, you might encounter hostile conditions later.
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